Rockport Harbor looks very impressive thus far and must be considered a viable early morning line favorite to capture the 2005 Triple Crown .
After being out front of the pack , and perhaps unduely so , with critisism for Smarty Jones\'s 3 year old campaign ( all well intentioned of course )and after some enlightenment that I recieved on this web page I have only positive things to say about everyone connected with that horse .
Rockport Harbor has totally awesome Thorograph numbers and pattern for his only three career races going into today and by the way his performance looked this afternoon @AQU he probably ran another big effort , maybe a new top .
With young horse\'s running fast or negitive numbers as if it were common place nowaday\'s it\'s no longer a question of simply \" To fast too young ? \" anymore . How a horse is managed and not to forget to mention racing luck are as important as all the talent a runner might posess
Each horse must be evaluated on it\'s on merits and the kinds of fast numbers that horse\'s are running now probably should not be viewed lets say as \"off the board\" but rather for what they are - numbers in the minus level or negative register . So my feeling on Rockport Harbor today is that his numbers might be to fast too young \"not\" . Now I only wish I could have figured to play Lion Tamer today @ 13-1 ...
Post Edited (11-27-04 16:44)
he caught the worst remsen field ever assembled and ran over a very quick track, one that suited his style perfectly (the fig must be pretty fast). in the future, i imagine he will run very well when he finds these same conditions. after a prep or two next year, however, i don\'t think he will find the races so easy. i\'m guessing he is a very good speedball that will get cooked when he faces the big boys in the spring and summer (he reminds me a lot of read the footnotes). just a guess though, for now he has done everything very well..... as for getting odds on this horse to win the triple crown, you will find plenty of offers out there. BTW, i bet galloping grocer when he was 2-1, then watched the odds drop to 7-5 in one tick, then he goes off at even money. wasn\'t the best of bets at 2-1, and i wanted no part of the even money bet (was too late though)...........
Post Edited (11-28-04 09:54)
BTW, GG ran faster than RH (because of ground loss), and JR said GG changed back to his left lead after he hit him the first time, costing him some momentum...... way too soon to be talking triple crown for RH.
I watched the race ,and he was impressive; however, he seemed to be hopping around to keep his weight off his right rear leg on the way to the winners circle.I think when he veered in in the lane (slightly) he may have injured himself.I don\'t feel GG was pushed as hard as the winner and i think he still has something in the tank,to me he is the real interesting horse.
Well, with this year\'s two year old crop being a bit undistinguished (look who won the BC), I can\'t blame anybody for getting enthusiastic about Rockport Harbor. He showed some courage in the lane. Neither horse had been hit by the whip before or been in a \"dogfight\", so I think they both responded pretty well. At the wire, it appeared GG was coming at him again, but it is hard to say if he would have gotten there in a few more jumps.
Michael, surprised you would think you were getting 2-1 on GG. The exacta was always a bit shorter with GG on top and the pick-3 will pays suggested co-favorites, not Rockport as the favorite. Anyway, not a great betting race. It was tough to make a case for anybody else in the race.
Anybody notice the ridiculous betting on Purge in the Cigar Mile. I know I am beating a dead horse into the ground, but this was one more example of the MISERABLE crop of three year olds this year. Purge was one of the fastest, next to Smarty, and he wasn\'t even competitive, even off of a freshening, which is his best in the past. How he could be 3-1 against older horses is beyond me. Even throwing him out, it was tough to come up with Lion Tamer (I thought). I figured the Frankel was worth a shot at the price, although Kela would have been my bet had he run.
MD/BA/J66 -Your probably right - it\'s way to early to annoint a \'05 triple crown winner right now , however I couldn\'t resist . I know that I\'m not taking into account a good many other 2 yo\'s around the country who don\'t yet(but perhaps will soon)fit the derby profile .
Anytime these young horse\'s run big efforts there are always potential soundness issues - look at GG\'s 3 career TG #\'s - he might already be showing early signs of deterioration , I don\'t know what he ran yesterday but I doubt it was a new top or faster than the winner . I did ponder last evening as to why the whip wasn\'t used more on RH , to not ask the horse for any more than he was willing to give could mean there is intent to nurse a physical problem . To not push RH too win due to the fact that he\'s ahead of the game in earnings dosen\'t wash to well .
Although we don\'t know at this time how RH & GG came out of saturday\'s race , I still feel the TG numbers on Rockport Harbor\'s 3 races prior to yesterday point him out as a potential monster .
I\'m looking forward again this year to \'05 Derby futures wagering where I can hopefully take a shot at some BIG prices ...
Post Edited (11-28-04 11:41)
>Even throwing him out, it was tough to come up with Lion Tamer (I thought).<
It wasn\'t that tough if you considered the likely pace and the impact it might have on the outcome. There was a reasonable probablity of a fast pace in this race given the number of pure and presser speeds. (see my Cigar analysis before the race)
Personally, I thought the winner of the pace battle (assuming it did occur) would go on to win and Lion Tamer could suck up for second under that scenario. That\'s what often happens in pace battles. The pace winds up being fast for the winner, but within his range and doesn\'t kill him. However, he torches all the other battlers. The exception is when it is VERY extreme. Then they all die.
That\'s the way I would have played my ticket had I gotten involved. I would have keyed Pico Central over Lion Tamer as my main ticket and probably used Badge of Silver/Purge over him small. Then I would have had some small tickets with Lion Tamer over the same 3 in case the duel got extreme.
jimbo,
i thought the crowd would get carried away with RH, and let GG go off a bit higher, being that he is a NY bred gelding and all. i was looking at too many damn tracks, so i was trying to get my bets in early. some guys gave lion tamer a huge new top in his previous race. i guess that frankel horse that beat him, mass media, is a real freak. you had to assume that LT really did improve that much and the last was not a fluke. i thought pico would be very tough to beat..... only used LT underneath. i think the aqu strip was very quick yesterday, might have helped RH and GG keep going at the end, and might have made that one move that LT made a bit easier to sustain without flattening out.
Here\'s why he was favoring his leg...
http://www.finalturngallery.com/album89/Web_RH_cut_dk4890
>some guys gave lion tamer a huge new top in his previous race. i guess that frankel horse that beat him, mass media, is a real freak. you had to assume that LT really did improve that much and the last was not a fluke.<
Not sure whose figures you are referring to, but IMO yesterday\'s win for Lion Tamer had little or nothing to do with him running a new top in this race or his last race.
People that believe that pace doesn\'t mean much might assign him a new top for yesterday\'s race in order to fit everyone else\'s figures into place. However, without even trying to make figures for yesterday I am fairly certain that would be a misunderstanding of the result.
No matter what figure makers give him for yesterday\'s Cigar (depending on methodology), the primary reason he won is that all the contenders that looked a little faster or more likely to improve used themselves hard early and thus ran slower than they would have under an average pace scenario. This gave him an advatage.
IMO, it couldn\'t be clearer going in that there was some potential for a duel setting it up for a closer. IMO, the race development (visually and fractions) and results are too obvious to think that pace wasn\'t a factor in the outcome.
Post Edited (11-28-04 18:12)
disagree...... pletcher has this horse better than ever. the horse exploded, not just visually, but fractionally as well. this horse could have run plenty of times this year in a race with a wicked pace like that and not run as fast. pace played a role in the outcome no doubt, but don\'t try to tell me pletcher hasn\'t got more out of this horse later in the year than he did earlier.
ClassH,
you said earlier that LT had not shown enough yet to win this....... that is incorrect, some people had his last race plenty fast enough to win this.
Post Edited (11-28-04 18:27)
I do not believe LT had shown enough in his prior races to win yesterday\'s race assuming an honest pace. He had shown enough ability to make his presence felt assuming a duel on the front end though. I wasn\'t assuming an honest pace and was correct. If some other figure maker had his last race as fast as Pico Central\'s best races I believe those figures are not to be taken seriously (Rags?). I know this is a subjective matter (who are you going to believe), but you\'d have a tough time convincing me otherwise. Sometimes people have the right horse for the wrong reason.
I haven\'t tried to analyze the figures for yesterday\'s race(s) yet, but IMO, he would NOT have beaten Pico Central \"if\" that one ran his \"typical race\" and was not \"used so hard\" early.
IMO he certainly wouldn\'t have beaten Badge of Silver. IMO, BOS ran the best race by far. He pressed that fast pace 3 wide and didn\'t get beaten badly at all. That\'s a dreadful trip as you are dueling, losing ground, and working even harder than the other duelers to stay even with them because you are wide. If Frankel can hold him together (big if), that horse is going to be an excellent sprint/miler.
If LT did run a new top yesterday, he still benefitted from the duel because IMO he was still 3rd best in that field. Closers always look good picking up duelers as the fractions begin to slow. I\'m not trying to take anything away from his performance, it just looks better than it was.
Post Edited (11-28-04 19:07)
ok,
1. you say the figure makers who had him fast enough to win \"can not be taken seriously\"
2. you thought he was too slow
3. the race has been run, and the horse ran about as fast as the figure makers who \"can not be taken seriously\" had him run previously and won the race.
AND YOU ARE STILL GOING TO ARGUE THAT THEY HAD HIS PREVIOUS RACE WRONG??????
i like your pace analysis in these races, but you have to leave open the possibility that LT just got better, and ran a fast one because he was really wound up by one of the best trainers in the game.
CH,
I don\'t disagree with your general views on pace. But as for this race, several points:
1. You are seriously redboarding. If it
\"couldn\'t be more obvious going in that there would be a pace meltdown\", then where was your post before the race?
2. I don\'t think it was \"obvious\" that there would be a pace meltdown. Cudos to you if you saw it, but I didn\'t and I am guessing others didn\'t either. Purge was cutting back to a mile after longer races with slower paces. He figured to stalk, not be on top of the pace. Not sure who you expected to run with Pico.
3. I don\'t think there was a \"pace meltdown\". Take a look at the fractions here and compare them with other runnings of this race and races like it (Met Mile, also a one turn mile). The pace is always hot. Almost always seems \"suicidal\".
4. Watch the replay, Pico looked well within himself going 44 to the half. Purge was being worked on by the jockey, but Pico was within himself.
5. Michael, I guess what you are saying is that Len (Rags) had the race before for Lion Tamer much stronger than Jerry did. If so, congrats to Len. He got it right. Lion Tamer was a \"throwout\" on Jerry\'s figures. He needed a new top to even hit the tri.
jim,
i use a lot of figures, i\'m just saying that LT was not \"too slow\" to have a chance on some that i looked at. i missed it because i though PC was ready for one of his big ones, but he is an iffy horse. i missed the race because i read the patterns wrong, and a great trainer wound the s..t out of a fast horse and took it all.
Michael,
I guess I am not being clear because we seem to be miscommunicating.
1. I do not think his race prior to the Cigar was fast enough to beat Pico Central on his best day. Jerry doesn\'t think so. Beyer doesn\'t think so. Logic Dictates doesn\'t think so. Pacefigures doesn\'t think so. My own analysis suggests that all those guys are right. So if someone has that race faster, I believe it was in error despite the result.
2. I think that horses like Purge and Badge of Silver (who were similarly fast and IMO more likely to move forward) would/should be given an edge under typcial circumstances because their style lends itself to losing less ground. LT is a closer.
3. I thought there was decent probability of fast pace yesterday that could/would neutralize the speed figure advantages of some of those better horses. (at least the secondary speeds)
4. I think the pace and development of the race enabled LT to win even though IMHO he was not the best horse. IMO under honest pace circumstances, BOS would have won, Pico Central would have finished second, and LT would have been 3rd.
5. I do not know what speed figure Jerry, Rags, Beyer, Logic, or Pacefigures will give LT for that performance. What I do know is that some of them tend to look at pace when interpreting results and some do not. So it is possible we will see very different figures from them depending on personal beliefs. No matter what figures they assign, IMO he was still 3rd best. This is an example of the kind of thing I talk about when I say I use pace to analyze results and figure out who really ran best.
6. If I were interpreting this single result I would assign LT a figure similar to his last race. I would give everyone else a figure slower than they have been running because their participation in the duel hurt them or because getting outrun by faster speed horses hurt them.
7. I don\'t see LT winning as vindication for someone who had his last race as faster than PICO Central. If anything, if he was really faster than them he would have won off by 5 or more lengths because he had everything his own way. IMO, the rest of them ran slower final times because they were used so hard early. He should have killed them if he was really faster.
I don\'t think the figures that come out of this race will vindicate anyone (including me) because everyone has their own opinion about how to interpret results and make figures.
IMHO, this result was fairly easy to understand after the race because it didn\'t develop much differently than I thought was possible before the race. I thought the pace would be fast and Pico Central would put away the other speeds away and hold off Lion Tamer. Pico was not as sharp as I thought. He wasn\'t nearly as good as BOS.
Jimbo,
I discussed the probable pace scenario in the Cigar thread before the race.
If you read my post, I did not think a pace meltdown was certain. I thought a fast pace was likely. When there are this many speeds and pressers, the pace is usually very competitive. IMO, this one was competitive enough to impact the result.
I thought Purge \"might\" try to stalk, but I didn\'t like him for other reasons and there was no certainty he would not participate.
I didn\'t think LT would win. I thought Pico Central would put away the other speeds and that would allow LT to suck up for second.
I\'m just discussing the result so that when these horses run again I will understand how well they actually ran vs. their speed figures.
Post Edited (11-28-04 20:25)
Michael,
>i use a lot of figures, i\'m just saying that LT was not \"too slow\" to have a chance on some that i looked at. <
Then we agree. I was going to key on him (mostly for second) if I got involved. You can read that in the Cigar thread prior to the race.
the TG guys didn\'t like him (correct last week, wrong this week, no problem), but looking at their figs now, given that kela was out, and PC (an iffy horse to begim with) was laying 8 lbs to LT, and LT just ran a negative \"1.75\" closing in a 7f race, i think he was a contender on TG. ClassH, i will make a deal with you: i will go back and consider the possibility that a horse too slow to win won the race because of the pace scenerio, if you go back and consider the fact that pletcher really wound up a fast, underrated horse that would have won the race under any conditions. i understand pace pretty well (see my fall hweight play on the other guys toy), if i come to the conclusion that i am wrong, i will admit it.
Post Edited (11-28-04 20:27)
Michael,
> will make a deal with you: i will go back and consider the possibility that a horse too slow to win won the race because of the pace scenerio, if you go back and consider the fact that pletcher really wound up a fast, underrated horse that would have won the race under any conditions.<
:-)
I can\'t change what I think about the result. I don\'t expect you to either. Perhaps we will get some more evidence as the horses continue running, but I doubt that. BOS is a semi-cripple and Pico is probably done for the year. If LT keeps running I would expect he\'d beat up on the winter horses.
I would not be suprised to see Jerry agree with you and give him a new top because he tends to discount pace. Have a nice night.
:-)
Post Edited (11-28-04 20:38)
OK Class, always nice discussing racing with you. i don\'t bother with the aqu inner track or the other winter tracks. i take a break from racing during december, so i will speak to you when GP opens. the new surfaces are getting great reviews, should be great racing.
I did not see the races Saturday, but I think Rockport caught a glib track. I\'m not altogether sure its as easy to figure the two turn races Saturday though. He also felt the sting of injury and raced through it, so I count that in his favor. They came home a little slow, but lets face it, they are two year olds. (I think Smarty threw a Zed as a two year old if I\'m not mistaken) Long way to go, but he did what he had to do and Galloping Grocer is not a bad colt either. Great Race.
In defense of Purge I would like to say theres some data suggesting he 0-2-x\'d. He ran some bang up races as a 3 yr old and he ran some dudes too. He may not be up to Grade I older horses, but he fires or he doesnt. I don\'t think he fired Saturday, but admit that four mark duel with Pico was certainly part of it.
After analyzing the charts I\'m more and more impressed with Pico\'s game third. Heckuva race.
CtC
Post Edited (11-29-04 01:29)
One of the problems with the discussions of 3yo crops is that they always center on the ones that ran in the TC or summer 3yo races, and those horses almost never stick around long enough to do well against their elders (VG and Skip Away being among the few exceptions). Or, to put it another way-- how were Pico, GZ et all viewed at this point as 3yo\'s?
What we do here is try to measure ability, not accomplishment-- we are looking for overlays both in buying and betting. That does not mean a horse who ran fast will necessarily keep running fast, any more than winning a G1 means a horse will win another one.
TGJB,
>What we do here is try to measure ability, not accomplishment-- we are looking for overlays both in buying and betting. <
I agree that that should be the goal.
It\'s just that some of us think that running fast against weaker competition is not as good as running fast against excellent competition. We like to see some non-speed figure verification of quality.
IMO, the best ways to verify 3YO quality are to see how easily lightly raced allowance horses move up to the top of the class after impressive and fast wins, how dominant the better 3YO horses are and how fast they run when they take an easy race against a much weaker group, and how they all do against older horses.
Some of the better 3YOs actually still have conditions well into the year.
By this standard, even if a member or two of a crop has been running fast, that does not mean they are as good as horses earning similar figures in races loaded with average multiple grade I winning older horses that are sharp.
No one from this crop has progressed much from the spring or developed late. Perhaps they were OK for springtime 3YOs, but they weren\'t that good. Their efforts against older horses have demonstrated that. No one that I know of ran real well against older horses despite the fact that some of them had contending speed figures or were coming off sharp races against their own kind. (Cliff\'s edge had a 2nd against second string older horses at best) It\'s just an observation about what Smarty might have been beating in the spring.
Post Edited (11-29-04 15:11)
By those standards Secretariat and Seattle Slew weren\'t much as 3yos-- the former lost twice to run of the mill older horses, the latter never raced against them as a 3yo, and I would be surprised if any of the 3yos behind him made a dent. The horses Secretariat beat didn\'t amount to squat against older horses AS 3YOS-- one of them turned out to be okay later, horse named Forego.
Point being-- the ones from this crop who will be good older horses haven\'t revealed themselves yet.
TGJB,
If you think figure handicapping can be somewhat subjective, class handicapping is ridiculous by comparison. You\'d definitely have to bar me from the board. :-)
Personally, I thought Seattle Slew\'s crop was dreadful and I am a VERY HUGE fan of his. In his defense, even though his competition as a 3YO stunk, (Cormorant was OK and I think Silver Series, Jatski and JO Tobin weren\'t too bad later on) he was tons the best of them. He had a horrible start in the Derby then he dueled (a horror show of a trip) and then he dueled again in the Preakness and kept beating them. I think he got way better at 4. I thought Forego probably would have beaten the springtime 3YO Seattle Slew weight for age.
Do you remember what kind of numbers he was running as a 4YO? My figures were pretty bad in those days. It\'s a good thing I was a classhandicapper. ;-)
This brings back some great memories for me. I was a hotwalker at Aqueduct for David Sazer (remember him?) that summer. It\'s the only job I ever had in my life that I truly enjoyed (this computer programming crap for corporate America blows). I used to sneak into the vans to Belmont with the horses to catch the double and then sneak back for feeding time. :-)
Mark Casse worked in the barn at that time (he was a teenager like me). His father (Norm) had horses with Sazer.
I am less familiar with Big Red\'s crop, but he was also tons the best. Losing to Onion on a dead rail (according to Davidowitz)isn\'t a disgrace when you beat Riva Ridge and then wipe out the best turfers.
I agree with you about late development stuff. Maybe someone will get better next year.
Post Edited (11-29-04 16:41)
I wasn\'t making figures back then, or even through Bid\'s 4yo year-- I left Ragozin in the Spring of 80, between Genuine Risk and Codex, and didn\'t start making \"hard\" numbers until 1/1/82 (the first day was about an 8 point slide in the snow at Aqu-- welcome to figure making). On Ragozin Slew had a 7 top as a 3yo (I think), and ran a negative 2 as a 4yo. I now think those figures were distorted due to 1 and 2 turn splits-- the 4yo figure was the 1 turn route at Belmont.