quick thoughts appreciated - how much does a weight change really effect your handicapping? For example - does 3 lbs give you pause? 5 ? greater than 5 a toss? When they put up program changes, and you are already at the track, if it\'s 1-2 lbs, do you really care?
I only look at large weight shifts. However, I operate under a different set of assumptions than most TG players. I assume the figures are just a first step approximation of a horses ability. So a couple of pounds here or there is much lower on my scale of importance than for some people. If the horses are that close in ability, my bet has more to do with odds and the general trend in form than minor weight shifts or arcane patterns in the figures.
Weight is a variable. I think the scale TGraph uses is a good tool.
The Clark is an interesting race.
Saint Liam - He obviously jumped up under Dutrow. Not only is he fast, he appears to be the controlling speed. Anyone want to postulate a pace scenario that compromises him? Additionally, he seems to like the surface. His \"best\" races under his previous trainer were on the surface. He\'s also had a little freshing and he seems to have run lights out for Dutrow under similar circumstances. Of the things that can beat him \"bounce\" and \"surface condition\" seem most \"probable\". I\'m going to keep my eye on the results. If the track gets slow, thats probably the best chance to work an upset. The track was \"good\" but fair Thursday. The races were a bit slow but for Commentator who humbled his field as bad as he beat Eurosilver
I look at three horses with a chance to top the Saint. They are Sir Cherokee, Eurosilver and Perfect Dread. Sir Cherokee and Euro on unrealized potential. Dread on a nice looking race in the B.C. (all things considered). I favor Dread the most for an upset based on his fondness for the strip and excellent preparation. I like his weight assignment as well. (Theres several with light imposts) I still think for it to happen something has to be amiss with Saint.
I\'m not high on Frankel\'s horse. (and that may be cuz I\'m not looking at TGraph) If I bet this race I\'m leaving him out of the top two spots, so he\'s liable to beat me.
I think I\'m all over the chalk so I may look to hit straight tri\'s. Good Luck.
CtC
i think you just have to go with the science. use the TG formula for weight and judge accordingly. how many times have you disregarded a 2 lb shift and lost by a head?
>how many times have you disregarded a 2 lb shift and lost by a head?<
I never tried to figure that out. I know I cashed some tickets over the years when I used to ignore weight completely. When I look back at those races now I would be hard pressed to play them as strongly as I did because of negative weight shifts. This is one of those things that I think either gets built into the odds (or even worse \"overbuilt\")
I am willing to concede that weight is a factor, but I think the premise that anyone\'s figures are so accurate as to make very small shifts in weight important to be incorrect.
If it comes down to that, you should probably be focusing on odds, possible changes in form, extreme race development possibilities etc.... and not a couple of pounds.
Post Edited (11-26-04 14:24)
Well,
I made some good decisions on the Clark. I favored Saint Liam to win. I tossed Lundy\'s Liability and I liked Perfect Dread to run a game race to Saint Liam. I also liked the Zito horse on Kentucky and the nice figure from early on B.C. Day. Unfortunately, i liked him for third.
Thats horseracing
CtC
The odds looked about right to me. I passed the race. I coudn\'t take St Liam at that price and I didn\'t like Perfect Drift or anyone else enough to try to beat him.
The Cigar Mile on the other hand looks like a race where a bet may be found....where I\'m not sure...but I have something to keep me busy tonight :-)
Is there a ROTW ?????
I\'m taking Kela/Pico Central/Unforgettable Max over Potrisunrise/Purge/Lion Tamer/Badge Of Silver.........The bet looks like a straight 8/1/2, see you at The PALMS.
taking Purge but the two favs look formidable but Kela\'s 3 big-figs in a row has to end sometime.
There\'s a lot of pure and stalker speed in this race. It\'s going to take a huge effort to win on the front end.
Pico Central was excellent early in the year. He came back a short horses off the freshening layoff, but quickly returned to excellent form 2nd off the layoff. Will probably faces a lot of pressure early, middle, or both, but at least he has the rail.
Kela has been in excellent form of late and has a very good race at the distance. He is a closer in a field that is almost certain to produce a lively pace for him to close into. The only question mark I have about him is his age. Very few horses reach this kind of peak at age 6 after so many races and hold it long. If anything, at this age they tend to get sharp for a few races and then head back down quickly. I thought that was a little bit of knock on him in the BC, but he came through with another good effort. The small probability of him heading back down is the only thing that prevents me from thinking he deserves favoritism over Pico Central. Tough call between the two.
Purge is lighty raced and eligible to get better, but it\'s always tough for me to take a horse off more than a 2 month layoff in a Grade I race. Many horses that run very well off layoffs find the demands of a Grade I off a layoff a little more than they can handle. I want an extra tick or two on the board to compensate for this negative. Might sit a nice stalking race.
Badge of Silver is another with a chance to explode forward, but faces pressure on the front end and \"will have to improve\" to win.
Lion Tamer hasn\'t shown enough to win yet, but he has the style to suck up and get a piece of this if some of the better pressers collapse due to the pace.
I think bias (if any) and pace could have a huge impact. As always, the key is price.
Kela is scratched so that does not help the price of Purge. How short will Pico Central be now?
With Kela out I\'d have to think that Pico Central will and should be a fairly solid favorite. I\'m seeing 6/5 right now.
That\'s nowhere near long enough for me to take, but I don\'t want Purge off a mini-layoff against this field at 2-1 - 5/2 either.
I believe the win odds are approximately correct. Nothing is way out of line. If someone put a gun to my head I might use Lion Tamer in the exotics (especially second). In the event the pace is extremely hot, some of the speeds that look better than him could use themselves up enough to cost them the place/show spots and allow for a suck up second like Lion Tamer or even During if he rates with blinkers off.
I agree with ch...the win odds, I think, are about correct.
and since the don\'t put guns to our head, I think I\'ll just watch some very fine animals run really fast and see if Pico can lock up the Sprint title today.
I am passing the race. I think the odds are reasonable and I\'m not going to play around on the assumption of a duel that sets up one of the closers for second.
Well the duel wound up taking more out of the frontrunners than I thought and Lion Tamer got the top spot. Had I gotten involved (gun to my head), I would have cashed, but it would have been one of my smaller tickets. I would have had him underneath Pico Central as my main ticket. Fun race. At least I had the right idea by focusing on Lion Tamer from a value perspective even though there was no money involved.
I agree with CH\'s assessment of horses competing in Grade 1 races off of layoffs (see TIMO in Holywd Derby). Nonetheless, I still got suckered into using PURGE.
Which brings me to my next point. Anyone think that this year\'s 3 year old crop leaves something to be desired? Can anyone tell me any 3yo that made any impression when running against graded elders??
Not to take anything away from the accomplishements of SMARTY JONES, however recent performances by the likes of PURGE and BIRDSTONE against older have not exactly flattered him.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Joe B.
I agree with you. I think there were a number of 3 yos that showed some early potential but they came up very short on the accomplishment list as the year developed and they were tested against older horses. Other than a few \"suspect\" fast speed figures they didn\'t do much. I supect that those that have more faith in the accuracy of every single figure and/or that dismiss quality issues will disagree and make excuses, but I think other than Smarty the crop was weak.
Perhaps Rock Hard Ten will develop. He may have been overrated at one point, but IMO there\'s still some potential there for the new trainer.
Handicappers have to admit that the 2001 crop has not faired well against olders. However, you also have to keep in mind how much of the 2001 Crop is left. Smarty and Lion Heart never got to face them. TCE and Birdstone went bad in their first tries against them. I\'m really not sure what Rock Hard Ten and Eddington are doing right now. Purge is one of the better ones left and the NYRA mile was his first crack at olders, but Purge has always been an inconsistent horse. Sometimes he runs big sometimes he doesn\'t. He was certainly better than his Arkansas Derby effort and he was better than he showed Saturday. Which is not to say he\'s going to beat Pico Central, but if he stays sound I have a sneaky suspicion he\'ll beat the 1-2 finishers in the NYRA mile. Will that validate the crop? Also keep in mind his T-Fig pattern. He ran a nice top in the Jim Dandy and then ran two points off it and was given three months of rest at a critical money making time of year for a three year old.
I still think theres others that will emerge as four year olds, but if they don\'t I can\'t dismiss the crop because the heavy hitters were injured.
CtC
Post Edited (11-29-04 13:23)
CTC,
Don\'t you think it\'s curious that almost every single time a top horse gets his head handed to him it\'s because he got hurt or bled and never because he wasn\'t good enough.
Personally, I think a lot of the supposed injuries are nothing more than an attempt to either excuse the loss and/or avoid future embarassment. In other words they are trying to protect the value of an overrated horse.
Not saying that\'s true in all cases, but I think it is true a lot of the time.
I hear what you\'re saying CH. \"Retiring a big reputation horse to retain his stud fees before he spits the bit on the track.\" I\'ve always felt Pulpit got out while the getting was good, but I don\'t feel the same about the \"Big Four\" though.
Smarty could have come back. Fact is he was simply worth too much money at stud to an old man in ill health. He was thinking about the future of his family. I would have done the same thing in his shoes.
Birdstone suffered a fracture. I think he ran on it, but I don\'t think thats been determined. His coat was off pre Classic as well. The owner takes no chances with her horses. She loves them.
TCE and Lion Heart went bad with obvious injuries.
These were good horses and on his best day so is Purge. If he\'s sound he\'ll be back. I agree with Jerry\'s point in another thread, though I\'d never consciously separated them before. Each crop has three classes of horses: Those that are champion two year old contenders; Those that are Triple Crown contenders; and those that go on from there. Which is not to necessarily say good 3 yr olds can\'t be good older horses too. Just off the top of my mind Lemon Drop Kid and Behrens come to mind.
The triple crown trail can grind up horses. This crop was fast and I think a certain amount of grinding did occur.
Maybe I\'m somewhat of a \"show me\" man, but I don\'t think Lion Tamer beating Purge is a sign the crop was of poor quality.
CtC
CTC,
Here\'s how I see the crop.
Lion Heart was a precocious miler that ran some good races in the spring for a 3YO at that time. However, he didn't develop much. His Monmouth races were very overrated. He faced tomato cans.
Birdstone was a horse that only ran well when everything broke his way. He won his maiden race when he got loose on the slop. He picked up a bunch of tired sprinters that used themselves up early in the Champagne. He took advantage of a duel in the Belmont and then in the Travers he beat a bunch of horses that either didn't want the distance or that got hurt - holding off the always hanging Cliff's Edge. Mediocre over-rated horse that I would have retired ASAP if I owned him.
The Cliffs Edge was another of a long list of mediocre deep closing hangers that never beats top horses unless the race collapses. I wish he were coming back because I'd love to bet against him again next year all year long too.
Purge is/was a decent mid distance horse that can put up good figures when he's not faced with significant pace pressure of high quality like he was in the Cigar and in one of his poor performances against Smarty. His race in the Travers was at a distance he did not want. I still think he has some potential for next year in the mid distance races.
Rock Hard Ten showed some potential right off, but something obviously went wrong. Maybe he'll do better with the new trainer.
Smarty was tons the best of a sorry triple crown bunch. His derby preps were very good. His derby was OK. His Preakness was amazing, and his Belmont – though tough to measure - proved how much better than the rest of the crop he was. IMO, he was very good, but not quite as good as some figure makers think. He would have been tested against the best older horses like Roses and Ghost.
Post Edited (11-30-04 12:37)
CH--
Very well done.
I particularly like your comment regarding PURGE and his inability to handle high quality pace pressure. Perhaps the 2 month layoff going into the race had something to do with it. This is another example of why performance ratings need to be looked at within the context of how they were achieved.
Performance ratings are a powerful tool. You cannot attempt to beat this game without them.
However to make a race evaluation based solely on what that # is, makes that number \"a terrible thing to waste.\"
Good Luck,
Joe B.
jbelfior wrote:
Perhaps the 2
> month layoff going into the race had something to do with it.
It was Three (3) months off. Something was somewhat amiss with the horse.
> This is another example of why performance ratings need to be
> looked at within the context of how they were achieved.
I agree with the above statement to some extent. But you have to put it in context if I get a \"competitive\" T-Fig horse outta \"tomato can\" races and he\'s 30-1 against \"class\" horses. Theres a pretty good chance (other considerations factored) I\'m going to play that way.
>
> Performance ratings are a powerful tool. You cannot attempt to
> beat this game without them.
>
> However to make a race evaluation based solely on what that #
> is, makes that number \"a terrible thing to waste.\"
Sure, my sentiments exactly, but I\'d add they are the single most important tool. TGJB doesn\'t say \"bet the high fig. horse either\", he\'s always analyzing the field. Perusal of the ROTW makes that clear.
In the end you judge these things by how well you handicap them. I have to admit I lost money on the BC Classic, but thats the only race I\'ve bet some of the 2001 crop against olders. I did not bet Purge in the NYRA mile.
In hindsight, I do believe Zito raced Birdstone a little light. You can debate how that affected his injury and B.C. effort, but, the possibility exists he may not have been up to olders. I\'m more certain of the fact that the light racing schedule was due to Zito\'s belief the horse needed time. I don\'t think that is necessarily true. I think he was severely compromised in his Jim Beam and Kentucky Derby starts. He could have been my Lemon Drop Kid of the decade. I just couldn\'t put him atop Smarty.
CtC
Post Edited (11-30-04 14:25)