Anybody care to take a shot at rating the Derby ??
My opinion:
War Emblem: 2.0 (perfect trip)
Proud Citizen: 3.00 (nice trip, wide though)
Perfect Drift: 3.00 (nice trip, slight check)
Medaglia d\'Oro: 2.75 (nightmare trip, plenty of energy left on the track)
I imagine JB will have the winner a point or so better, but come November, I think it will have become evident that this race was not super fast...........
I am certainly no expert at this, anybody think I am way off ????
I have to believe the winner went back ,I think your right.
Thanks for the reply, I actually thought I would get a lot of negative feedback from this post. I tend to think that WE backed up a bit, and I think Md\'O had a ton of energy late, and would have been second with a clean trip...
I don,t think Frankel\'s horse really want\'s all of that distance and to switch tactics in the derby is nuts .I think he gets beat anyway but I think you got to go with what got you there .Frankel was talking in the papers about how he won\'t get caught up in a speed duel but it never materialized .when I saw Eddie D. laying 3rd I knew it was curtains .I believe Frankel wanted to take the wood but his horse was not good enough .I really didn\'t like him in the derby .I spread in pick 3\'s and pick 4\'s and was taken down in the 7th I had WE ,PC,Saa,and PD on my ticket ,what more do I have to do ,I mead i finish first for four races in a row and cash nothing my only regret was leaving out Steve Jerkins horse out in the 7th race
I\'m guessing WE ran fater than that. A top class thoroughbred on an easy lead will post a big number - he destroyed them and it\'s hard to believe he didn\'t better his SPT effort.
And when we were being hard on Mark O\' for repent not closing on WE, perhaps we were looking at the derby 1-2 (injury permitting).
good to hear from you fastspeed, always nice to get an intelligent voice on the board. I just think that the trip was so perfect that the 2.01.1 does not justify a 0 or 0.5. I remember FuPeg going about the same time on about the same type track (I think, correct me if I am wrong) and getting what I thought was a well deserved 2 and change. In that race, FuPeg had a nice ground saving trip, but was reserved behind traffic for a mile or so, he probably could have gone faster.
Michael will be proven right. One path all the way around. HP
A first-time poster\'s guess
War Emblem: 2.5
Proud Citizen: 2.75
Perfect Drift: 4.0
Medaglia d\'Oro: 3.5
Everyone else: X
Jamie, you have no idea what you\'re getting into. But nice to have you here.
Actually, no. Watch it again.
J.Ough, you may very well have it best in the end. I think WE deserves a 2.0 because he is a very tough horse on a speed favoring track. My personal opinion (worth nothing no doubt) is that WE could back up to a 4 o 5 if he has another horse looking him in the eye on a neutral track at a mile and a quarter. I will go further and say if he ever attempts a mile and a quarter over a dull surface his figure could head back towards 8 or 10.
No need to apologize, but I am curious. Why all the guessing about who got what fig? Cantcha just wait till they are published?
MO
We are not guessing....simply giving our own opinions, and more important, finding out how others viewed the race. personally, i am very interested in seeing what all the fans who view this site think of the race. i am also very interested in seeing how JB\'s numbers compare to what we all think. aren\'t you curious to see how others viewed the race ?? what better way to express it than to give it your own number
Mark,
You\'re probably right we\'re restless, but then again it is clear that the vast majority of people on this board are more into numbers than you are. You\'ve probably already made your post mortem judgement (using visual clues) and moved on - others may still need \"closure\". Incidentally I was interested in your comments on how WE looked after the race - I distinctly remember (and this is not hindsight) thinking monarchos looked exhausted after the race last year (it was also hotter). Then again, I\'ve also seen countless horses train and look like monsters after a big effort and still bounce to the moon, so you never know. The \"human over-reaction effect\" will ensure that someone challenges WE in the preakness, so we will find out how good he is (it is clear that the same human over-reaction from last year\'s derby ensured that nobody wanted the lead this time - they\'ll go 21 and 44 next year).
WE odds for the Preak.=== 5-2 to 7-2
Mike,
I might be into the numbers a little more than you think. However, and I think you\'ll agree, figures (and TG\'s are the BEST) alone don\'t win a race. There are many other factors to consider, as you mentioned, the human element.
My point is that entries and post positions have not been drawn yet. Sure I\'m interested in what they ran (if you want a guess, WE ran another 1)and I\'m not chastising anyone for being restless, but it seems that one can lose focus on the overall picture while guessing what the figure for the race was.
There is no game more exciting and interesting than horse racing, but I think the human element is to blame for the negative image the sport has.
For example, I posted one note on the commies BB about the \"highway robbery\" going on at the Derby. And some genius decided to rip me on my handicapping ability. He didn\'t post his name and made no reference to my post. Just a p**ck.
Now I ask you, how many new fans are going to get into this game when all they see on BB\'s and at the track are a bunch of hostile, egotistical morons, many of whom don\'t know what a bathroom looks like?
Thats another subject, but I just wanted to kill 2 birds with one stone. Thanks for the discussion, mate!
MO
When I compare the fans at Saratoga or Del Mar to the fans at a Rangers or Knicks game,
(not to mention the Giants) I would say racing fans are not all that bad. A little more enthusiasm from the fans might even help..... Just send a post back to that guy and explain why your post was right and why he was wrong.
Is this J. Ough from the BAy Area? I say W.E. anywhere from 2.5 to 3 which makes his read very interesting for the next race. He may still bounce and win the next race also. M.oro probably only ran 1/4 to 1/2 pt worse than winner.
Yeah, those nasty Ranger fans. Unlike those well mannered soccer boys.
Beyer top for WE (114). With all that weight (ignored by Beyer) looks like a big number is coming up.
Incidentally, am I the only one who thinks it\'s strange that McCarron will be on Crimson Hero in the Preakness. JDB rode last and it\'s not like he\'s got 3yr old riches. Either he doesn\'t like his chances or he\'s hoping for a jock change on the big ones. I say he\'s after MDO ride after Laffitt screwed it up.
In beyer terms thats about a 2 with the weight added in. Both beyers and rags are slower a bit than TG\'s.
I think WE ran between a 1.5 and 2.5. I would be shocked if wins the Preakness.
International Sportsman