Looks like an interesting race. Anyone notice that Dickenson just won his second West Virginia Classic with this horse and he did it laughing. (I won\'t be able to figure it til tomorrow, but I don\'t think the figure is going to be relevant anyway) He doesn\'t hang together for many, but he\'s working well and seemed to like the strip. Not real enamored with a drop down from 9 marks and the post. In all likelihood he\'s gonna have to go wide again. Didn\'t seem to bother him much last DeFrancis. He is 8 yrs old now, but this horse is something of a phenomena.
CtC
Dickenson is one notch below God, but if A Huevo takes money you just have to bet against him. Every time he goes to the track these days he\'s at least 33% to get hurt in the race. If he beats you, so be it.
It\'s tough to bet Shake You Down in a Grade I off a long layoff. Has ability, but not with my money.
Gator\'s and Bear\'s fits nicely, but I don\'t even like a 3 month layoff coming into a Grade I. I\'ll pass and let him beat me.
Philadelphia Jim doesn\'t look good enough.
Lion Tamer has always looked like a much better sprinter to me. This is probably an OK spot. Maybe 7F would be better. IMO he hasn\'t run well enough to beat these yet, but he\'s not impossible.
True Direction\'s best chance is his new trainer - which means anything is possible.
I know a lot of people like Abbondanza, but IMO he isn\'t as good as these and the BC proved that. However, there isn\'t much pure speed in here other than Shake You Down and we have no idea how he\'s going to come back. So there\'s an outside shot that he could get loose without too much early pressure. I won\'t bet him unless he\'s extremely long, but he\'s not impossibe. If the track is playing speed, so much the better.
IMO, Midas Eyes, Champali, and Clock Stopper are all fairly similar. Midas Eyes is probably a bit the best. If any of them goes off much longer than the others he\'s probably worth a look.
Wildcat Heir is interesting because he\'ll probably go off a lot longer than the other contenders, yet he\'s not WAY worse than them off his recent race. He\'s lightly raced, improving, and has always looked like a horse with potential. He\'s probably more dangerous than the public will bet him.
The odds will determine the bet.
Post Edited (11-20-04 16:21)
I like Midas Eyes and Abbondanza over Champali/Gators and Bears/Clock Stopper/ Wildcat Heir.
Jimbo, this is your chance to chime in on the ROTW. T-Graph posted the DeFrancis. I\'m looking at it now.
CtC,
Been looking at the race since yesterday, but my problem with \"chiming in\" is that I don\'t disagree much with Jerry. So, if he is wrong, I probably go down with him.
I usually don\'t bet races where I like the favorite, and in this case I have to like Midas Eyes. Usually after his horses stink the joint up in the Breeders Cup, Frankel stops running them for the year. The fact that he brings Midas Eyes back for another race, makes me think the horse\'s excuse in the BC was legitimate. I read where Frankel said \"he lost he race before they got on the track\". Apparently he had some kind of mishap where he banged his head and was full of blood in the mouth/head area. I know the \"frankel skeptics\" probably agree he lost the race \"before the race\", when Frankels vet didn\'t get to him in time (he was spending extra time with Ghostzapper!!)
The horse usually doesn\'t like to be on the rail, but with Abbondanza as the real speed with maybe Skake you Down, Midas Eyes figures to be sitting 3rd or 4th (with Champali). Despite his bad rides in the BC, I like Prado and I really thought Midas Eyes was a \"champ\" after his two Saratoga races.
I am very suspicious of Abbondanza\'s figure in the Philly race, but as the clear speed, with a possibility to be \"loose\", if Shake You Down doesn\'t fire, I have to use him.
I love the jockey change away from Pat Day for Clockstopper. Over the years the \"Pat Day off\" angle, switching to a more aggressive jockey, has been a good angle for me.
Chamnpali is a tough horse, especially if it winds up wet. Either way, have to use.
Now you see why I don\'t like the race, full of chalk, all of which looks good.
I will play the race lightly, keying Midas Eyes over 5 horses in the triple.
Abbondanza
Clock Stopper
Champali
GatorsnBears
Wildcat Heir
Betting against Shake You Down and A Huevo, hoping they take money in the exotics.
If Midas Eyes goes off at 2-1 or greater, I will bet him to win a little too.
But not my kind of race. Can\'t get \"rich\" on chalk :)
An interesting spot to bring back True Direction, you would have thought there would have been something a little easier. I have issues with most in here and if I can get anywhere near the morning line on this one first time Pletcher and Allday it\'s worth a small win bet and I\'ll key him with Midas Eyes; Gator N Bears; Clock Stopper and Wildcat Heir in exotics.
I like TGJB\'s analysis. Usually do, the couple places where we may see it differently I\'ll chime in on.
Midas Eyes - TGJB\'s apparent favorite at 2-1 or better. I\'m not so sure the one hole is an advantage for this horse. To keep position he\'ll have to burn and if he burns I\'m not certain he won\'t miss the board. His recent style is to drop back a bit and come late. I foresee that as the way he will run.
A Huevo - I\'m less convinced of him this morning. I think he was pointed to the Forego. Why should he be better here?
Gators and Bears - The weight really bothers me, he likes the track, if he\'s got the Suffolk race in him, maybe. He\'s never had a three month freshening. Trainer is 0 for 6 on that stat. I think he\'s ready to fire but that weight is a rock.
Shake You Down - He\'s had the speed to keep Abbondonza honest. If he\'s ready its a wing dinger up front. If hes not, someone has to go with Abbo. This horse just took a half year off. If you don\'t see him early, you won\'t see him.
Champali/Clock Stopper - Throw a blanket on them. They could do it. They need some breaks.
Wildcat Heir - Chuckles Abbo stalker
Abbo - He\'s a very fast four mark horse.
The track looks fairly honest all day. With 11 minutes left in the betting I haven\'t changed any of my opinions. I don\'t want the layoffs. So I think the only bettable horses are Wildcat Heir (18-1) and Champali (6-1) even though I think Wildcat is no better than 4rd most likely winner and Champali is either 2nd or 3rd most likely. Champali\'s odd are too close to fair for me to make a bet. I may make a small token bet on Wildcat, not sure yet. Want to see the late betting.
Post Edited (11-20-04 16:28)
I can\'t believe I don\'t have $2 on this exacta. The winner was an overlay, but the exacta was like giving money away. :-(
TG,
well done on the ROTW, the analysis was good. i keyed ME and collected zip... BTW, anybody notice that prado has been having a difficult time determining where the wire is in these big dirt races lately? he made runs too late in three big races today (i think with the best horse in each race). the guy is a terrific turf rider. his style suit great on turfn when all the jocks tend to rate their mounts. he will win a ton of races in NY when bailey and JR take time off, but in these big dirt races, i think he has to get a bit more aggressive (could explain his 0 for 50 or so BC record).
Alan did ROTW-- you can tell when it\'s me by the parentheticals and dashes. I made him tone down his opinion of the winner and push Abbondanza more than he wanted-- he started screaming at me at the eighth pole.
hahahah..... well done alan. if i had put more emphasis on WH\'s sept 6th six furlong fig (negative \"1.75\"), i probably would have had the exacta. i think you guys judged that sept 6th race better than other figure makers.
Living easy, loving free
Season ticket on a one-way ride
Asking nothing, leave me be
Taking everything in my stride
Don\'t need reason, don\'t need rhyme
Ain\'t nothing I would rather do
Going down, PARTY TIME
My friends are gonna be there too
He rode the Wildcat so well...
He rode the Wildcat so well!
There was one surprise I expected Abbo to be on the lead before he caved.
:)
CtC
Jimbo, I liked your analysis too.
There was a lot to appreciate. I thought your call on Abbo was very good. Expected pace/skepticism on figure/probably a \"use\".
Your use of Midas was both logical and bold. If I had one fault with Midas, (and I was fortunate to overcome it), it was the fact that he\'s a Touch Gold trying to excel at 6 marks. He hadn\'t been real successful there before. (though he may be in the future) I agree about 2-1 was in the realm of \"win bet\".
You are 37 years old correct?...let me ask you this. What do you know of Appealing Skier and Richly Blended? Just off the top of your head. Theres others I could mention but they escape me right now...too many english ales....lol
CtC,
Glad to see you hit the race. I actually got tied up today and didn\'t get a bet in. Probably lucky, as I would have only keyed on top.
I am 38 today. That is how I got tied up.
I remember both Appealing Skier and Richly Blended. What I remember most about Appealing Skier was that he had no business being put in the Belmont Stakes his 3 year old season by Ben Perkins and he pushed a ridiculously fast first six furlongs. I had a very big bet on Skip Away at about 13-1 (from memory, not sure about the odds) and Skip Away was the only horse near the early pace to survive and he beat in a stretch duel by an inferior Editor\'s Note, with Shug\'s filly My Flag 3rd. I might still be living off of the money if Skippy had won.
But he was a good sprinter.
Richly Blended won one of the NY preps for the Derby, I am thinking it was the Gotham. Had some speed but couldn\'t stretch out. Perkins also? Not exactly sure. Was he the pacesetter in the Congaree/Monarchos Wood Memorial or am I getting my years confused?
I grew up going to Monmouth all the time, and Perkins was a regular 30% winner there. I don\'t know if he ever had a horse go off at 18-1 there, like Wildcat Heir did today.
PaceFigures.com had the horse with the top last out figure, but didn\'t have the Sept 6 race very good.
Michael D. wrote:
> hahahah..... well done alan. if i had put more emphasis on WH\'s
> sept 6th six furlong fig (negative \"1.75\"), i probably would
> have had the exacta. i think you guys judged that sept 6th race
> better than other figure makers.
>
>
hey jimbo, i just turned 38 a few weeks ago. happy birthday.
yea, i get the sense that the TG guys did a great job judging that race. i looked at a lot of #\'s, and TG had the race by far the fastest.
Did anybody cash a ticket on the race?????
If Midas Eyes gets up, I blow the doors off the Superfecta.
Happy Birthday Jimbo!!!
Yah you got it. Perkins trained those two and a score of others. He or his old man, they are like two sides of the same coin, similar to the Dutrows. To my mind his forte is six mark speed horses. Buy them fast for New Farm off fast works at the two year old sales and train them faster. (WH is a homebred however) He got a little ambitious with Richly Blended and got outside of his niche, but you never know when you\'re sitting on a freak. 12 marks is a stern test for freakdom, even Smarty found that out. He was well positioned on pace and the figure in consideration of the likely races of some of the others. I expected at least a neg. 2 out of him and I think we got it.
belated happy bday michael d.
Post Edited (11-21-04 14:09)
>Did anybody cash a ticket on the race?????<
I did, but it was a small win bet. The exacta was an enormous overlay, but I did not play in that pool.