The term \"patient Pat\" was never more appropriate than in Saturday\'s Classic.
How many jocks out there would not have taken advantage of Javier Castellano\'s decision to come off of the rail with GZ after the break leaving a huge hole at the inside?
What chance of winning did Day give AZERI by taking back off of soft fractions, removing any advantage she may have had---her early speed in a relatively paceless race?
Does anyone think Prado, Bailey,or Johnny V would not have sent AZERI to the front under those circumstances?
GZ probably would have still won, but don\'t you think it would have been a bit tougher?
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Could your assumption about the pace be wrong as it pertains to Azeri?
Fractions that are slow for Ghostzapper and RIM at 10 furlongs might not be that slow for an inferior horses like Azeri going 10F.
Day might have had to \"use her\" to get the lead.
CH--
I understand your point. Visually, it appeared he had a hammerlock on to keep her from going up after the daylight inside.
Based on the early fractions and how the track was playing, my feeling is that the pace was not that quick where she would have had to been pushed to get the lead.
My feeling is that they had concerns about her getting the distance if she were to run on or just off of a demanding pace, therefore the game plan was to take back from the bell regardless of the situation. Ditto for RIM.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
AZERI being \"sent\" may have made the race more interesting, but GZ raced giant again and would have most probably still won off.
Joe,
I agree on the early hammerlock on Azeri.
The race development really didn\'t shock me. I had a funny feeling that everyone was going to be gun shy and I didn\'t see any of them as totally unrateable. I was wrong on Funny Cide. I thought he would be closer early.
CH--
When you have that many loading, there is a good chance someone is going to go quick early. Not Saturday.
By the way, has anyone had a chance to read the article on the BLOODHORSE website today... \"Classic: Chasing a Ghost.\"
Seems Frankel is plotting strategy for other horses in the race too. Interesting stuff. Any thoughts??
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Interesting article, JB.
If it really happened as the article laid out, I would be surprised. It even sounds like a mild form of \"race fixing\". Not sure how the rules of racing are written, but multiple parties on separate horses/betting interests, colluding on positioning, pace and strategy, sounds shady.
Of course, the article makes it look like Frankel is just too \"brilliant\" and he outsmarted Ramsay.
Be curious what others think, but I don\'t get a good feeling after reading the article. I would prefer those kinds of discussions not take place. (and this comes from somebody whose saving grace on Saturday was Ghostzapper\'s win)
Jimbo--
My thoughts exactly. Not shocked that BS like this involves Frankel. I am shocked that he would actually tell a reporter this stuff. Is his ego that big???
Good luck,
Joe B.
>When you have that many loading, there is a good chance someone is going to go quick early. Not Saturday.<
Agreed.
But Saturday a lot of the speeds were suspect at the distance, were rateable, and pace issues were discussed publicly.
I\'m big on pace analysis after the fact as a method of interpretng results and measuring performance. I\'m not so big on predicting pace related race developments because I\'m wrong too often and the public usually overdoes it on the baord.
classhandicapper wrote:
> >When you have that many loading, there is a good chance
> someone is going to go quick early. Not Saturday.<
>
> Agreed.
>
> But Saturday a lot of the speeds were suspect at the distance,
> were rateable, and pace issues were discussed publicly.
>
> I\'m big on pace analysis after the fact as a method of
> interpretng results and measuring performance. I\'m not so big
> on predicting pace related race developments because I\'m wrong
> too often and the public usually overdoes it on the baord.
Pleasantly Perfect came down with a career ending injury sustained in the race. Its possible it impeded his ability to get closer. Its just as possible in the heat of the combat he never felt it.
I said it before and I\'ll reiterate. That track was QUICK and in the Classic they loafed early. Wide was NOT the path. I\'m dying for the opportunity to line up again against the fastest horse to ever look through a bridle.
I almost fell out of the saddle when \"The Blood Horse\" stated: \"but Frankel has never had any doubts about Ghostzapper\'s ability to stretch out to two turns\":
http://bc.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=25182
Azeri broke half a step slow, but I\'m stunned that Day and Lukas didn\'t take the game to them when she had the chance. She had one hope at the distance. She wasn\'t gonna outgame them late. More evidence that Lukas is a well placed amateur.
I\'ll admit to not spending enough time on the race and mis-analyzing the pace scenario. My bad, it won\'t happen with these horses again.
CtC
Post Edited (11-03-04 16:51)
Chuckles,
I don\'t \"love\" Lukas either and do enjoy betting against him, especially now.
But \"well placed amateur\" is way out of line. He has won enough Triple Crown and Breeders Cup races to earn a little respect. Like him or not.
Azeri beating GZ at ANY distance would be a miracle.
Jimbo, I think you\'re losing track of the type of horseflesh Lukas has had at his disposal until very recently. He\'s a numbers cruncher. In the Mid eighties to mid nineties he had managed to convince scores of wealthy unknowledgeable clients he knew what he was doing. You could have shined up ANY trainer, put Lukas\'s sunglasses and personality on him and had as much success. He\'s was a master at his craft but that craft wasn\'t horsemenship. That said, I did have Stellar Jane in the Distaff and Consolidator in the Juvenile in my bets.
The demise of Lukas has been linked to the new drug era. Lukas has always been a speed popper and the new juice is speed pop juice. He hasn\'t figured out what it is or he wont use it.
CtC
Day\'s ride was fine and Waynes training job was even better. She couldn\'t have beaten Ghostzapper under any circumstances and you\'re not giving either one of those two Hall of Famers enough credit to think they didn\'t know that either.
They said before the race she may run again this year. This tipped their hand. A St Liam type duel would have cooked her for good.
Pat Day and D. Wayne Lukas have probably taken more criticism for two people who have won as much as they have. There is something wrong here.
This thread is amazing.
Most were drooling at the prospect of betting against Azeri in the Distaff, per her pattern of running off numbers after minus 1\'s and are now complaining about Day\'s ride where they had no shot.
Amazing, simply amazing.
BDHsheets--
I don\'t see anything in this thread that alludes to Day\'s ride costing AZERI the race.
Without speaking for the others, my feeling is that AZERI had no shot to win the race regardless of how she was handled by Day.
The point is that if the connections thought she had a shot to win, then why not take advantage of the circumstances and send her to the lead when the opportunity presented itself.
You put AZERI on the lead in a :46 4/5 and a 1:11, and I\'ll bet you dollars to donuts she finishes better than 5th.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
One thing that Jerry once mentioned here in passing that has stuck with me is that many times jockeys/connections will be cautious in the big races. You\'ll look at the PP\'s and assume that there are speed horses that will be gunning for the lead and they are....kind of checking it out when the gate opens. Speed may be even more valuable in these races because a lot of times the jockeys are a little more cautious and lay back and if someone can save ground and make their own trip they are in even better shape than usual.
War Emblem springs to mind as a prime example of this...and imagine if Lion Heart had been ridden 1w/1w...
JBelfior may be right, but it didn\'t surprise me that they held back with Azeri. Looking at the PPs for the Classic I was thinking they would go faster early...
HP
It wasn\'t Day\'s fault. Azeri was never faster than either GZ or Roses in May. Lets move on. Azeri running in the Classic has gotten far more publicity than it deserved.
Joe B,
Respectfully disagree. Put Azeri on the lead through 46.4 and 1:11 and which horse does she beat?
Ghostzapper? No way.
Roses in May? No.
Pleasantly Perfect? No.
Perfect Drift? No.
Ghostzapper and Roses in May would have stalked and passed her. The quicker pace would have made Pleasantly Perfect and Perfect Drift\'s \"late runs\" more effective and they would potentially have lost less ground since the field would not have been as \"bunched up\".
Before the race, most everybody thought she had no chance. She ran 5th, which I think is very respectable and admirable against that field. My guess is that two years ago, when she was a bit better and the classic field had a few less \"tigers\", she might have run a little better.
Joe B -
In my opinion you are exactly right. Why run her in the race if you\'re not going to put her in it? The pace was not that fast and GZ wasn\'t going to get in a duel that would cook him (per Frankel.) She still would have been beaten by the top two for sure but may have finished better than she did.
Mark
I am suprised there is so many threads on a horse everyone totally dismissed and had no chance of winning?
Tony--
OK, I give up. No more posts on AZERI. Nevertheless, there were some interesting and insightful comments/opinions given in this thread.
On a separate, but familiar issue. Steve Haskin was the BLOODHORSE reporter who printed pieces of Frankel\'s \"strategy\" conversation with the owner of RIM.
My buddy e-mailed Haskin on his thoughts and also asked if Haskin believes this can be construed as a form of \"race fixing.\"
Haskin wrote him back saying he was overreacting and that trainers or trainers/owners of other horses discuss racing startegy all the time and there was nothing wrong with them agreeing on the strategy that was most beneficial for each of their horses.
I\'m wondering if Haskin, who sounds brainless to me, was at least smart enough to crush the exacta.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Funny Cide\'s October 12 race at Belmont was quite an effort, coming back as he did to win. My guess was it would result in a bounce in the Classic.
jbelfior wrote:
> BDHsheets--
>
> I don\'t see anything in this thread that alludes to Day\'s ride
> costing AZERI the race.
>
> Without speaking for the others, my feeling is that AZERI had
> no shot to win the race regardless of how she was handled by
> Day.
>
> The point is that if the connections thought she had a shot to
> win, then why not take advantage of the circumstances and send
> her to the lead when the opportunity presented itself.
>
> You put AZERI on the lead in a :46 4/5 and a 1:11, and I\'ll bet
> you dollars to donuts she finishes better than 5th.
>
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B.
Joe, I\'m not a performance figure purist. Its why I\'m not a regular T-Graph customer. I believe in careful scrutiny of the whole enchilada. In my opinion one factor in performance figures is pace. If horses aren\'t pushed to their limits in the first part of a race its generally foreseeable that the performance figure for the race will not be top or near top. Track bias or glibness is a factor in this of course, as well as other variables. The challenge and beauty of the investigation is the most intriguing part of the endeavor. That said, I am in accord with your belief that pace modifications can affect the outcome of the race. The tacit agreement between Frankel and Ramsey certainly had an impact. As did Day and Lukas\'s failure to seize the day. I did not think Azeri capable of winning the Classic. But I thought she had one chance, forge to the front, take the game to the others and attempt to ration speed for as long as her stamina and the track would take her. If she had followed that formula, I\'m not so sure she wouldn\'t have won. Running as she did denied her the chance to finish as RIM and GZ did: Out in front on the best part of the track and full of run with plenty in reserve. My horses were RIM and Funny Cide. It wasn\'t Funny\'s day and it wasn\'t gonna work out, but I tend to think Azeri failed to take advantage of a golden opportunity.
CtC
Post Edited (11-04-04 13:49)
Ctc-
Well put. A fitting end to a good thread.
Good Luck,
Joe B.