Well it certainly wasn\'t Great, but it wasn\'t that bad either. This is a real tough day to look smart and an easy one to look bad. Yesterday reminded me of the BC at Churchill one year where all kinds of wierd stuff happened. Starting with Sheikh Albadou in the Sprint (Opening Verse, Miss Alleged,Arazi).
I thought the weather angle was overplayed,as I stated in my post Saturday morning. But it is not uncommon for there to be an 85 degree day in Dallas this time of year and that kind of heat will roast most of em. Trying to give selections, project weather, track conditons along with bias 3 days in advance is not exactly a small task.
I also thought there was a little too much, see how certain trainers are doing, or who is handling the heat or the ship and then adjust. Ask me now and I can probably give you some pretty good answers on who to bet. Just find somewhere to get down. Even on days where its bad Thorograph is still good. And thats saying something. Like I said earlier it gave me Singletary and I fumbled on the one yard line. Whose fault was that??
Something for the BC people to think about. I\'m all for moving this event around because it helps keep the interest level up. In the last 10 years we have been to Canada, Chicago and now Texas. But when 3 of your 8 events are grass races it needs to be someplace where the Euro\'s are comfortable. This place clearly wasn\'t. Heck they barely even tried any of the dirt races, something they have been doing more and more of and in some years almost won the Classic.
Years ago when they put a one mile race in people thought it was a misfit. Now its almost the only race the American Breeders have anything suitable for. The Turf field keeps getting smaller and smaller while the Mile is a consistent overfill.
I thought the Media did a good job considering what little they had to work with.
My Awards:
Eclipse Trainer: Pletcher-a star is born
Eclipse Owner: Ken Ramsey-he made need that purse money soon to cover his bets from yesterday.
Comeback Trainer of the Year: D Wayne Lukas-Darth Vader has become Moses.
HOY: Ghostzapper-maybe since Stronach also stands the sire, he brings the horse back for another year. By retiring him now he could effectively cannibalize his own Stallion (Awesome Again-raise the fee Frank). Hold off another year be good to racing (the fastest horse ever) and maybe then its Darth Vadar becomes Moses II.
Bought the analysis, for the sake of buying to see what the experts liked, well it was not worth the paper it was printed on. Hit the the Mile exacta for $10, by putting the Euro\'s underneath, with the photo from from Santa Anita on top. Better Talk Know was live, because Motion\'s horses were running great. The juvenile filly had all kinds of trouble and ran 4th, the FM Turf he finished 2nd, so in the Turf he was an auto play. Don\'t kneed know damn sheets to tell me these things. Had a pretty good day!
Somewhere in the middle of the last two posts.
Silver Charm, the analysis was bad. There is no way around that. It was a tough card, but the fact is that when I look in the redboard room, every single bet suggested by the analysis was a loser. By any definition, it was bad.
But it was worth the paper it was printed on!!
The seminar, which is a different product than the analysis, was interesting, but also no help to handicap with (in hindsight). Yes, Singletary was \"usable\" based on T-Graph figures (and Beyer too for that matter), but he was mentioned as having being hurt by the post and Jerry was \"happy\" to see the change to Valdivia. Well, Flores got back on, and he got a good trip.
It was definitely a bad day for Thorograph users. But like I said in my post yesterday, it was probably a bad day for a lot of bettors. Five favorites, 2 illogical longshots and one plausible longshot doesn\'t often equal a good day.
my key race was Afleet Alex in the Juvenile. He broke poorly and was hard used to get a position for the drive. I\'m sure he scored out very well on T-Graph. Kudos to the winner. I\'m not sure of Alex\'s ability to go further, but I bet he beats the winner at 8.5 marks next time.
Well, it is hard to be critical. When a horse like Wilko (poor figures, most established pattern, etc.) comes bounding home, it just reminds me how difficult the Breeders Cup really is. I did not purchase the analysis but using the seminar, i believed that i had several longshots that would be competitive. Unfortunately, it did not work out. Two races in a row I liked my chance at the top of the stretch (gold storm and special ring), only to be swallowed up by the field. Thorograph helps me be contrarian to the public and has helped with a couple of big scores. How different was the analysis from the seminar, i did not get a chance to see it.
Thanks
Post Edited (11-01-04 10:47)
Look at the Tri\'s and Supers. You do not see payouts like this on normal days.
I know the field size and pool size is a big factor, but this happens in almost half the races, or more, every year. Its the unpredictability of it all.
If someone wants to be given two or three winners every year then buy a product that picks Ouiji Boards and Sweet Catomines every race. Or better yet one that picks 6 horses in every race then claims, \"We had it\".
Silver Charm,
Your argument suggests that NO product should be bought. Which might be true on Breeders Cup day. maybe it is just too hard and unpredictable.
But the hard facts are that Thorograph/Jerry were NOT close on any race. I know Oiuja Board got a great trip, which was unexpected, and he had the others behind her, but zero winners for the day is zero winners for the day.
I read somewhere else that Ragozin actually had a good day, which I am surprised to hear. I have not used the product, but I assumed a methodology which precluded a lot of \"chalk\".
I bought the numbers and made my own judgements, which didn\'t work out so good either.
As you said zero winners is zero winners.
Forgetting the analysis which is opinion,I\'m a long time TG user and had a decent day in several races especially the Classic.The fastest horse(by far) won and the three that came underneath him figured also, IMO.
I tossed Birdstone, Azeri and the overrated/overhyped Funny Cide and caught a decent ticket.Also the early double of Ashado and Sweet Catomine was a decent start for me.
Singletary I lost in exotics and I was right there in the remaining races.
The analysis had a bad day but the data provided in the sheets was enough to win by my interpretation.
Miff,
Glad you had a good day.
But if you did, you did it on your own handicapping, not on the seminar or the analysis.
Ashado/Sweet Catomine daily double of $19.00 was not the result of your Thorograph experience. The two favorites together in what was a winning bet, but a bet that anybody who bought a program would see. And 19.00 for picking two Breeders CUp races in a row is a ridiculously bad price. Good luck trying to hit enough of those to win. Ghostzapper was a standout, but also turned out to be only a $7.00 horse.
Some of the seminar and analysis\'s strongest opinions turned out be very bad. Speightstown being over the top and not fast enough, Sweet Catomine being a great favorite to bet against, and Oiuja Board also being a \"bet against\".
Yes, Ashado had nice figures, but was 2-1 and with Storm Flag Flying (with mediocre figures) running 2nd, it wasn\'t a race that was a profit maker, using T-Graph. Sorry.
Ouija Board was ABSOLUTELY a bet against in that race at the price. There were quite a few horses in the race that were as fast or a little faster and OBoard had gate problems, the ship and the \"Arc Bounce\" issue to boot. How much money are you planning to make on Ouija Board at 8/5? You want to criticize the analysis, fine, but really, criticizing them for recommending against Ouija Board is ridiculous. HP
HP,
If you are directing your post at me, it is misplaced.
Two separate facts. First, the analysis and seminar didn\'t \"cash\" for the day. That is factual.
Second, I agree with you on Oiuja Board and she wasn\'t 8-5, she was 4-5. I didn\'t buy the analysis and handicapped the races myself (but did listen to the seminar). I made a significant win bet on Wonder Again, assuming Prado would be smart enough to use the horse\'s tactical speed in a paceless race. I used Film Maker and Wonder Again on top in tri\'s and superfecttas and pick-4\'s. As a matter of fact, if either beats Oiuja Board, I hit the pick 4 on my 2-all-all-Ghostzapper ticket. It paid 47k with 4-5 Oiuja Board.
If the race happened again tomorrow, I would bet against Oiuja Board again.
But the \"bottom line\" for T-Graph and Jerry is that Saturday was a losing day. That is not deniable.
No badmouthing from me against the analysis or the seminar, but Saturday worked out to be a tough day.
I don\'t disagree with any of that-- if you stick your neck out, sometimes it\'s coming off.
I\'m with you on the FM Turf trips-- if someone told you before the race that one of OB and WA would be in those two spots, what would you have bet they would have been reversed? Don\'t know if it made any difference, but no idea why Prado took back.
Jim,
I do not use the analysis, but I read it and agree or disagree, I always stick to my guns.I don\'t know how you bet but I thought the price on GZ($7.00) was stealing and used him only on top in the tri and super. I quess you are shooting for bombs only.Good luck, that\'s a tough road, buddy.
>if you stick your neck out, sometimes it\'s coming off.
Are you Robespierre???
Jimbo,
First you wrote
\"Some of the seminar and analysis\'s strongest opinions turned out be very bad. Speightstown being over the top and not fast enough, Sweet Catomine being a great favorite to bet against, and Oiuja Board also being a \"bet against\".\"
Now you write,
\"If the race happened again tomorrow, I would bet against Oiuja Board again.\"
So in this race, correct me if I\'m wrong, YOU AGREED with the analysis (yes I know you didn\'t buy it -- but you came to the same conclusion) and you BET AGAINST Ouija Board. You independently came to the same conclusion as TGJB, how can you now criticize TGJB for trying to beat her and get a price? If you have gripes with the analysis, it CAN\'T BE with this race, since you yourself BET AGAINST Ouija Board just like TGJB! Jerry made a good call here, but sometimes you lose. I don\'t mind losing to 4/5 shots!
Then you write,
\"But the \"bottom line\" for T-Graph and Jerry is that Saturday was a losing day.\"
Now this may be true, but it has NOTHING to do with what the analysis said about Ouija Board, which you AGREED with and bet accordingly.
Interestingly enough, I keyed Wonder Again on top once I saw the turf was yielding (just like I threw out both Soaring Softly and Special Ring) and for my incredible judgement I collected nothing.
HP
TGJB--
Not sure why either. The sheets pointed out , in my interp., FILM MAKER and WONDER AGAIN on yielding.
FILM MAKER had a terrific # in last, drew inside, had Johnny V. and was tremendous value. WA had one off race in an otherwise strong turf pattern. Again, terrific value at 10-1 with preferred conditions.
So I box them up and lose...no one to blame...that\'s the game. I would make the same bet tomorrow under the same conditions. Too bad Jamie Spencer wasn\'t on OB...they would still be paying me.
PS: Not sure WA beats OB anyway., however Prado seems to be getting brain freeze on the big day.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
What\'s this talk about OB? I think the race that was blown were there was value was the sprint and the read on STown.
HP,
let me change my grammer a bit. I said \"some of the analysis and seminar\'s strongest opinions turned out to be bad\". What I should have said was that \"the analysis and strongest opinions pointed out in the seminar resulted in all losing tickets\".
Whether I agree or disagree with Jerry is irrelevant (I am not a public handicapper or authority on the horses). All I was stating, which I think JB agreed with up there on this thread, was that the products produced no winning tickets. That doesn\'t mean there weren\'t good gambles that didn\'t pay off. I am not \"killing\" any of his opinions. I must have posted 20 times since Saturday night (horse withdrawl, since I stop betting them now until January), and I have not been critical. Just pointing out facts.
Miff,
I am not shooting for bombs. I posted here 1 week ago that the best bet of the day was Ghostzapper. I made my largest bet a week before the race at 5-1 in the futures on Ghostzapper. So, I \"got out\" for the other losers.
My point was that betting $19 Doubles in Breeders Cup races is 1) In general, a bet I can\'t make because of unpredictability in these races, making \"value\" an absolute requirement and 2) If you did bet it, don\'t point it out as a \"Thorograph winner\" since anybody who bought the program had a good chance to have it.
Sorry if that sounds harsh, but they were two $6 horses and Sweet Catomine was being touted by every pro handicapper on all the websites and horse shows all week. And she was 3rd fastest on the T-graph figures and figured to lose ground from the 10 hole. Not a \"thorograph play\", as I am pretty sure that Jerry would agree.
Jimbo,
It\'s not your grammar. I give up. HP
Jimbo,
You are right, Jerry was bad this year. I usually go with him because he comes up with at least one price. I key JB\'s picks and round out exotics myself. It worked in 2002 and 2003.
For what it was worth concerning a bet against Ouija Board here is some food for thought. The best value bet of the day turned out to be Ghostzapper and Oujia Board. If your playing pic 4\'s Single Ouija Board xALLxAllxGhostzapper (Cost $64 for $1 bet) You collect $49,000. I am the idiot. The figures clearly showed they would be standout. It\'s up to us the make the right bets.
I also think the track Bias killed anyone coming from behind or on the outside on the dirt ( except Sweetcatomine ) who looks like a Super Star.
My only salvation was that I hit a Super the night before at Colonial Downs Harness Track for $3600 which gave me the cash to blow the next day.
It was a very difficult card. I\'ve bet Breeders Cups since 1989 and have never before had a day when I failed to cash. I did not make many bets but I failed to cash. Even Ghostzapper had caution flags all over him and the pace battle I projected didn\'t develope. You\'re gonna have bad days in this game. TGJB doesn\'t need to be reminded of that. You may have have paid for some non stellar selections but the heart of the concern is the figures themselves and I thought they held up pretty well.
Jim,
To a dogmatic sheet purist you make sense but in reality, no horse race can ever be reduced to a figure, pattern or whatever else you think.
Some sharp horse people on the west coast told me that Sweet Catomine was a serious horse and that Canani told one of them that this HUGH FILLY was ready to \"explode\".That stuff went along with the figs, patterns factored in when I took $18.00 on the double.
Whats wrong with a $7.00 price on GZ(should have been 7-5 IMO) horse on top of a $1200.00 super?
Tony,
The Sprint had real value in the Superfecta. First favorite over second favorite over two longshots = 40k. (I think that was the price).
The problem for me was no Speightstown or Kela on my tickets.
The Sprint was one of John Velasquez\'s two very good rides. He didn\'t panic after the bad break and tucked in behind the cheap speed (Abbondanza). He also gave Ashado a very nice trip from the rail.
For the Breeders Cup, I usually don\'t factor jockeys into my handicapping because usually all of them that get mounts on BC Day are good. But this year proved an exception. There were quite a few bad rides. I am sure I missed some of them, but these were all pretty bad:
1. Jamie Spencer on Powerscourt. Worst ride in a big race since the Swain race.
2. Kerwin John on Island Fashion. Impatient and 4 wide the whole way. He was doing OK out west before this, but proved he is not ready for primetime yet.
3. Jamie Spencer on Antonius Plus. Plus 4 of his 5 mounts \"dwelt at the start\". Coincidence? I wonder how many times Angel Cordero had 4 of his mounts dwell at the start in the same day???
4. Edgar Prado on Sense of Style and moreso on Wonder Again. It pains me to say this, since I love Prado, but he rode bad in both races. Wonder Again figured to sit 3rd or 4th at worst, with her tactical speed, even with the wide post. If you would have told me they were going to go 52.3 to the half and Prado would be 15 lengths off of it, I would never have believed it. Sense of Style may have been \"over the top\" anyway, but she is another with tactical speed that figured to sit closer to the lead and he got her out 2nd to last also.
Tony,
Ouija Board\'s best race (on TG) was a 3 and change last out in the Arc. Wonder Again (paired 1\'s!) and Film Maker both had better numbers going in. How can you say Ouija Board was a \"standout\" if she wasn\'t the fastest horse going in?
As for your track bias comment, the results tell a different story. Kela rallied from out of it to come second in the sprint and Wilco came from off the pace to win the Juvenile, and Wilco was also on the OUTSIDE.
Your hindsight is excellent though...
HP
NC Tony,
Which \"figures\" showed Oiuja Board as a standout? Her timeform ratings?
NOT her T-Graph figures.
GZ, yep. Fastest horse ever on T-Graph figures.
Miff,
Good information on Sweet Catomine. And I am happy for you that you hit the double, really.
I am definitely NOT a \"dogmatic sheet purist\". I have many threads on the past few months where I tried to argue traditional handicapping angles like pace, distance and class versus \"T-Graph numbers\".
Nothing wrong with 5-2 on Ghostzapper and DEFINITELY nothing wrong with the 1200 Superfecta. If I didn\'t have the futures bet at 5-1, I would have taken 5-2. And I am kicking myself a little bit for not betting the exotics, because it really came in pretty formful. Having not cashed a ticket all day though prior to the race, and not feeling confident because of it, I didn\'t \"push the issue\". As usual, bad decision. The super was definitely great value. Although I might have tried to beat Pleasantly Perfect based on the regression since Dubai. Tough to say in hindsight.
Jimbo,
Suprised you did not use Kela off two negative threes, a layoff, Mitchell and Bailey?
Post Edited (11-01-04 16:43)
Jimbo,
If you take the typical two points for Lasix and you use your head a little, (ie 3rd vs Boys in 19 horse Arc) and if you saw the race, you might come to that conclusion.
Yes Timeform ratings I think are more reliable from what I have seen so far (IMO) for Euro\'s coming over to US. (see magistretti\'s Euro Figs vs US Figs for example for difference)
And it was $47K not $49 (my mistake)
If you think the Euro\'s are not as astute as our US Horsemen you are kidding yourself. If they believe a horse is a standout, they usually prove themselve right (Banks Hill,Giants Causeway, Sahkii to name a few). Lets face it, the Horse was 4/5 for a reason.
Tony,
It paid $49k for 2 bucks but your point is well taken. The all button can be your best friend.
I think everyone is going a little overboard regarding the analysis. Most of us buy TG throughout the year without any analysis from TGJB. We read the graphs and make up our own mind. Its similar to going to the track with buddies who use the same info as you (DRF,TG,Trackmaster, whatever) but come up with different opinions on a race. Same with TG. Now I admit Jerry is better than most if not all of us at reading patterns. But to expect him to be perfect, or to blindly follow every last opinion he has is ludicrous. Especially when the analysis is done before odds, track condition, etc.. are known. TGJB will point you in the right direction often enough, but don\'t expect him to hold your hand all day. True there were many opinions that didn\'t pan out...............BUT he did say
MILE
-Singletary has the best chance to run a new top
-AP got weight, lasix, and with 2 pts improvement would be a borderline contender.
His final analysis never gave a specific play, so if you interpreted his comments on ALL horses its not inconceivable that this exacta could be played. It paid $1400 for 2 bucks. At the odds (isn\'t that the reason we use TG) it certainly could have been played. What does he have to do, give out cold $1400 exactas?? Its up to us to be creative and find plays that have a reasonable shot. My main play in the race was Whipper but I saved with different small exactas using prices, one of which was Singletary/AP.
Now I will admit that a lot of the analysis missed, but do you have to agree with everything he says?? Ghostzapper was a gift at $7. Any other day of the week and a horse with that kind of numbers edge is 4-5. Every horse in the super figured for a relatively easy $1100. It doesn\'t take many winning tickets with these types of results. I made many terrible wagers Saturday, but the last thing to blame is the analysis. 2 winning tickets out of probably 100 can still be a good day.
One last thing....how reliable are the turf/Euro figs? Most of these Euro horses are not as fast on TG but manage to outperform them. Just wondering.
Post Edited (11-01-04 16:46)
Tony,
Didn\'t like Kela because she got her negative numbers running in short fields, at more than 6 furlongs. When he beat Pico Central, that horse didn\'t fire.
I like sharp stalking speed in the sprint. That is my \"handicapping\" view. I am not a sheets numbers guy.
I thought Cajun Beat and Midas Eyes had enough tactical speed to overcome the outside post and get trips right behind what I thought were false speeds (Abbondanza, Gold Storm and Speightstown). Speightstown was obviously legit and the two I bet didn\'t run well.
NC Tony,
I don\'t know how old you are, or how long you have been betting. But \"Dancing Brave was 1-2 for a reason too\". And he ran out of the money as a much more \"legendary\" horse than Ouija Board.
I agree with you on the Euros figures. I can\'t prove it, but I don\'t think Jerry\'s Euro figures are correct. All the Euro invaders this summer that I saw outran their T-Graph figures.
However, if you thought Ouija Board was likely to be in the back of the pack early (which I did) and you thought the pace would be slow (which I did), and you thought she might not run her best off the big race in the Arc (which I did), then you could bet against her at 4-5.
The pace was slow and I bet she didn\'t run her best (haven\'t seen any figs yet). However, she got a great ride from Kieran Fallon. The horse was at the back of the back in all but one of her races and somehow got the garden spot behind the speed in a 52.3 half. I give credit to Kieran Fallon and blame Edgar Prado on Wonder Again (to a degree).
But at 4-5, she was tough for some of us to take.