I wanted to follow up on an example I describe in my previous post about a play that Billy Walters described in his book in the Super Bowl between Arizona and Pittsburgh. His Team had studied every coin toss selection Pittsburgh had made that season and found and that whenever Pittsburgh won the toss they deferred. Arizona had won the Toss like 11 times and on like 7 occasions they took the ball. They determined this was a massive percentage swing in favor of Arizona scoring first no matter who won the toss. Because in all likelihood they would get the ball first. They had a minimum of $50K on this play. Did Billy himself walk into MGM and drop a briefcase with $50K and make the bet. NO!!! They had multiple runners who were making smaller individual bets and who had been coached to \"I want to bet\" instead of \"WE want to bet\". Avoiding the \"who is we\" question.
Roulette story. The percentages in Roulette are something like 52.5% in favor of the house 47.5% for the Player. Red/Black. Odd/Even doesn\'t matter. There is a 0 and a 00. House advantage. They thought they had detected worn down edges on an Atlantic City Wheel. Players were put at the table to play all day and stick to their plan of certain numbers. Ex NFL KC Chiefs OL Mo Moorman from Louisville (my hometown and I knew Mo on a hello Mr Moorman basis because he was a Member at my Family\'s golf club) was one such player. Walters himself could not do it. Mo was a guy who if you got on the first tee and said lets play for $5K a hole he would say lets make it $10K. And presses are automatic. He had made tens of Millions with a Budweiser Distributorship and found the Golden Goose when Corona came along. Some days they won a little some days they lost. No Card Counter wins every hand. It is a grind until the odds swing to you and that\'s what happened with the Roulette Wheel. They eventually cleaned the House for several million and it was time to move on.
Now what does this have to with CAW? In both examples I gave it was THEM versus the HOUSE. With CAW its them versus US!! The Tracks have given them a Rebate Discount. The percentage advantage is in their favor. The Tracks need their wagering volume. They have sold out the average player for the CAW and the CAW knows they only have to beat a group that doesn\'t have the same percentage advantages and most likely the capital. They don\'t have to beat them every race but grind them up over time and move on to the next score. Like the Roulette Wheel. And then what\'s left of the Sport?
We have really smart people on here like Fairmount who has tons of data but guess what they do to. And they have computer programs and algorithms. The same things Walters used for their NFL action. Along with their own Power Rating System. If the Spread was 3.5 for next Sundays game and their system said it should be 6.5 bet runners would be fanned out accordingly mid week. Their system worked and it is why so many people wanted in.
And this is who now controls the Horse Racing Pools. Billy partnered with a lot of people who also could help him from golfer Phil Mickelson, golfer Jim Colbert (they did course developments together), Hedge Fund legend Carl Ichan and the Hooker addicted and gambling addicted CEO of Dean Foods who brought him down in an Insider Trading deal. Billy did his time and is out. Is he in a CAW? He wouldn\'t tell anyone if he was. He doesn\'t need the money and might not need the hassle. But for a nice consulting fee.....
The game has sold its soul to these guys and they are Pros and have major deep pockets. MAJOR!!! I will be pulling back and will probably only play 4 more times between now and year end and my wagering will be contained. 2026 is TBD. The Game better come up with serious changes, transparency and reforms. Right now I will let the Sharks compete against the Sharks and Pidgeon\'s ....
https://www.smh.com.au/national/meet-the-joker-the-australian-who-is-the-biggest-gambler-in-the-world-20180515-p4zfhi.html
This is who I heard was an Elite customer, Elite#2, but just hear say, allegedly , and this is what struck me in the article.
\"We’re called Bankroll â€" Bankroll Punters Club, that’s what we call ourselves,\" Zeljko told the court. \"Customers that bet on our level number in the handful in the world,\" he said matter-of-factly.
But, as he explained to the court, it wasn’t winning that kept them way ahead of the average punter â€" it was the rebates or \"loyalty payments\".
\"It’s very simple,\" Zeljko told the court. \"If you bet $100 and lost $5, but you get a 10 per cent rebate, you still make 5 per cent.\"
\"You always win,\" he said. \"I’m telling you that, if you bet very large, it’s a pari-mutuel pool, you depreciate it so far that you end up getting under fair odds. If you fix something at $8, you get six, but if you get a rebate that puts you into the positive.\"
This cannibalization of the pools via fat rebates was obvious 20 years ago .
I think they just got bigger over time and greedier, thus the public finally caught on .
Better late than never, or is it ?
Still think there is a lot more to it than grinding 5%
When they lose they lose 100% . No way they cover everything, every time . So they are shooting for scores , same as everyone else
I also see pool manipulation and some very strange betting (NYRA) that can only be described as deliberate losing. Of course, none of that ever gets mentioned anywhere.
Great points but I am not sure I understand what you mean by \"deliberate losing\".
Did anyone ever stop to think they might have a handle minimum? There were 3 massive win bets at Keeneland $140,000 or more. They came in early and none of them won. Two didnt even hit the Board. Hedged wagers in other Pools could have been made to cover things. Just a thought....
If they came in early it’s not CAW. And they’re not shooting for scores. They’re placing large numbers of bets in different increments into what is effectively a lower takeout than the public gets to grind out a profit. I’m no Wall st guy but it has been described to me as operating in a similar way as a hedge fund.
Not so sure some of these early bets aren\'t CAW related.
Yeah, they place a large number of bets, but usually they are targeted for a certain set of results. Score in CAW terms might be 3 or 4-1 on the total bet. More if bombs and they have it .
They have to have those to compensate for losers. Even with rebate, you cant play everything.
Silver -
In my mind, that\'s what everyone should be doing. If a company raised prices or otherwise made its product less attractive, you would look elsewhere. Why should betting on horses be any different?
The thing is, it\'s not happening. The CAWs are all over the exacta pool in NY, but it consistently handles more than the win pool. I was looking at handle at Saratoga this year for a project, and I was flabbergasted at how much money the early Pick-5 handled (almost as much as all other first-race pools combined). Unlike the late Pick-5, it is CAW-infested, the complexity of structuring tickets plays to the strength of the CAWs, and you have no signal regarding where the first-race win odds are going to wind up. Yet bettors are lining up to be slaughtered and then going to social media to complain about the CAWs.
Whatever happened to the idea \"if you can\'t beat\'em, join\'em\"?
Is there anything preventing us from forming our own CAW?
Elite 2 is likely The Joker.
Elite 17 is likely Dr. Nick. (reportedly bet $650 million on US racing in 2023 through Elite Turf Club and reportedly bet $60 million on Del mar in 2021). Who knows if he has an account through Velocity with Churchill controlled signals?
They are both from Australia. These two are the largest CAW players or at least at last check of information available. As I understand it, Dr. Nick stole an idea from a large player where he makes up front payments to a track prior to the meet starting. Fairmount Park\'s handle increased by 8.7 million under new ownership this year. Trust me when I saw it ain\'t the retail bettors pumping in an extra 8 million. A very intelligent person in the professional gambling world theorized strongly that Dr. Nick made his up front payment to the track. This results in what some call a \"Reverse Rebate.\" The tracks, like Del Mar, need the money up front to operate. From there, I\'m not sure of the exact agreements, and so-called special deals. TDN once stated that such deals result in a \"noticeably more favorable rate of play\" without going into specifics. For Del Mar, such an arrangement involved a 7-figure up-front payment.
It is worth noting The Joker\'s involvement in the Texas Lottery and how they spent 70 million to take a lottery pool covering nearly every combo if I recall correctly. You can Google about that I\'m sure.
Jerry is correct with how they play the game in many instances. It has been noted they do not play a part wheel ticket for instance. They will play a combo of fav/fav/fav/fav/fav for XX amount. Then fav/2nd/fav/fav/fav for XX-y. The amounts they play for each combo are in exact relation to their probability models. This is all good and wonderful they play outlandish and bizzaare combos down to the 50 cent incremement at times to scoop a pool. Where things get confusing . . . is when the vertical plays do not match up with the horizontal information ESPECIALLY AS I\'VE NOTED WHEN THE HEAVY FAVORITES OFTEN NEED THE LEAD TYPES BREAK POOR OR LOSE ALL CHANCE BY DROPPING A JOCKEY. But note, there are multiple CAW teams besides even the two often cited. Some folks like to generalize and theorize, they (CAWs) don\'t show their hand in the double but in the p3 and they hit the exactas the hardest. I don\'t know with several CAW teams and playing in different amounts relative to each other, how they collide with each other sometimes affects the pools. Something tells me that one player has even better perks than other CAW teams up until the very, very, very last moments a wager can be made but that\'s just my opinion.
As for competing against them, I have spent the past year in the hours I\'m not working sharpening my handicapping knives. Regular readers can probably tell that from my posts the last few months. I have stated and Boscar didn\'t disagree that the game can still be profitable for a sharp, disciplined player. But as a wise businessman told me about a job once that he didn\'t really want, there isn\'t much meat on the bone in today\'s game. They are playing even longshot chances correctly and at times, beyond correctly.
Is it worth playing still? That\'s each person\'s individual decision. But you have to know what you are getting involved in when your money goes in the pools. I can beat these guys straight up on the races I pick to play. I can\'t beat them playing every race. They are playing a completely different game. I don\'t think Only breaking even is ever their goal, but if they do, they still win. For the retail player, that is not true likely. And as one player noted to me and I\'ve discussed with close friends since, you can\'t even think of getting in a rhythm of popping several races in a row b/c there isn\'t value in race after race as there used to be 20 years ago or so.
The CAW lawsuit needs to make it to discovery and then things will change. I guarantee there are many things the tracks don\'t want you to know. Consider why these CAW teams do not want to bet at 2 minutes to post in the win pool. While pondering that, I\'m going to steal this thought from a Paulick Report to end this post. \"The Stronach Group\'s spokespeople warn, \'this lawsuit is an attack on the entire industry and puts at risk the tens of thousands of working families and the communities that rely on it. This baseless lawsuit has the potential to devastate an entire industry.\'\"
The same folks who are wanting to decouple, have closed Golden Gate, have essentially closed Laurel and put Maryland in peril, and are doing all they can legislatively and via lawsuit claiming Equal Protection issues (which is laughable) to de-couple Gulfstream. They are the same folks taking shots at a retail gambler from Colorado taking on the CAW\'s. Now ponder why 1/st/Stronach/Belinda are so interested in calling the lawsuit baseless. If the tracks thought all of their CAW dealings were on the up-and-up, why wouldn\'t they in coordination with the CAW principals provide more transparency about everything involved unless. . . there are things they absolutely do NOT want you to know. That doesn\'t sound like \"Parimutuel\" to me (\"Betting among ourselves\").
The solution is to ban them legislatively. If Kentucky or NY would take this step, their total handle short term would suffer. But they can both weather the storm, and long term (and it wouldn\'t take very long) the retail money would POUR into their pools. The first state to do this will be a big winner long term is my position.
Does anyone believe that the \"Joker\" didn\'t tip his hand in court in that article? He states that he takes all the liquidity out of the pool and makes it so efficient, that even if he loses 5% , assuming they lose all the time, he is guaranteed 5% return on his handle from rebates.
Churning a billion dollars through the totes, assuming no winnings, leaves you with 50 million guaranteed.
So is this all the CAW\'S players M.O.? Is one player just playing for rebates, or is someone trying actually to win like a Bill Benter?
One of the primary areas of emphasis for the Group was discipline. If their system pointed to a particular game and a bet runner was sent out to make the bet at say Dallas minus 3 and he came back and said it moved to 3.5 and I got us down. That Bet Runner would need good health insurance and or a prepaid funeral. They knew their method worked and they stuck to. Giving away a half a point here or there because they needed some action didnt happen. Teasers were like the plague.
Did they always win every game every bet? NO!! Case in point the Coin Toss example. Pittsburgh won the Toss and TOOK THE BALL. Okaaaay, Then Hines Ward catches a pass and converts a 3rd and 20. Steelers kick a FG, down $55K five minutes into the game. Ten seconds to go in the half Arizona is up 3 and on the 2 yard line, 3rd and goal and getting 2.5 for the First Half spread. A Cinch right? Not so fast. Steeler DE James Harrison catches a tipped pass and breaks like 8 tackles and runs it back a 100 yards for a touchdown as the half expires. The Walters group had $700,000 on Arizona plus 2.5.... They had Arizona plus the points for the game and ended up covering their $1.5M Bet and net profit for the game. Turn the page its full tilt College Basketball Season now. Mickelson calls in to find out what the days plays are and after hearing them wants some action on his Picks. They never told anyone anything early because people would talk. Walters discouraged this type of thing but Phil was Phil. He ended up losing $450,000 on Pro and College games that Saturday and proceeded to go out on Sunday and shoot 65 BLOWING AWAY Tiger Woods and the rest of the field at AT&T Pebble Beach. As Billy said \"there is a dude who can compartmentalize.\"
The CAW\'s are \"The Terminator\" and have been cut loose by the Tracks on the Average Fan. As Reese said \"they absolutely will not stop ....ever, until you are dead.\" If you had a speed figure program, a wagering mechanism and a CAW percentage rebate that gave you an edge no one else on the Planet had, would you feel bad if you and your group, over a 5 or 6 year period cleaned out the game for $50,000,000 and crippled it for good? Be honest. I know how I feel. You let us do it. So I did.
As Kyle Reese later said, \"No one goes home, it just me and him.\" And in the end The Terminator took out Kyle. That is what the Tracks have put us up against with steel hand extending for your necks.
and just in time for the great new belmont park
And sometimes they\'re wrong. See results of Saturday\'s LI Handicap; 7-1 over 7-1--exacta pays $248. They obviously sent it in on Beach Bomb (guessing they didn\'t look too closely at her TG sheet). Warms my heart.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Right on cue. Parx, Race 2.
Jockey falls off the #8 horse at the start and the odds go UP.
The exotic wagers essentially doubled involving the 8.
I tried to add this to the string I had going of all the ones that have went up the past several months when a horse breaks bad or loses a jock but it looks the TG board is down to just one page for looking back.
If the Guardians pitcher got charged for throwing the ball in the dirt. . . Someone Please call the Eastern District of New York and give them the list I posted a while back along with this one from today and tell them start investigating. It is Beyond Obvious. Whether it is criminal or not requires investigation. But there\'s enough to say there is past posting.
Can\'t wait for the \"but they are just this sharp\" responses to fly in.
Correct, they totally blew that race and didnt like the winner at all. Happens. Not all that often though , compared to the crushed winners
Think it depends on how good their \'insight\' is on the day.
They had nothing on that 35-1 turf upset Sunday either. Was 60-1 in the pick-X and exacta. That\'s why they need to get paid when they win, they aren\'t playing for a .95 cent money back in an individual race.
Keep seeing this magical thinking that they somehow can make money in every race by playing everything. I\'d like to see the math for that , would be fun.
I cant find enough data to pass judgement on whether this was a cancelled bet or not.
PARX does not show the odds in the gate, so unless you\'re watching the live feed , no way to tell what happened after the fact. Winner was 8-1 on the ML and went off 1-1 , ran with enthusiasm.
The reason they have to be able to bet so late, theoretically, is that depending on the odds they could be betting anyone or any combination. Again theoretically, they are not trying to pick winners.
Past posting is a whole separate can of worms.
#8 was 5.6-1 late in the wagering. The imputed Double odds were 5.2-1. The off odds were 8.1-1. These are per Ed DeRosa\'s post on X.
Further in the string, it is reported that $3,506 was bet in the final flash in the show pool yet only 58 dollars was bet to SHOW on the 8 in that final cycle.
And it is also noted nearly every exotic involving the 8 horse Doubled in that last cycle.
The CAW\'s just pounded that favorite is all that happened. It is just a coincidence the jockey fell off in a few strides and the win, exotic, and show pools all reflected a far less chance for the 8 to be a part of the payoffs.
Correct, not picking winners, just making the market to efficient and taking all the value out of the pool. And with there \"deals\" & rebates, they cannot lose money.
I haven’t finished reading this thread yet, but I have been following the discussion here re the CAWs.
Two things I have to add.
First, I’m just going to say itâ€"- this is the EPSTEIN of horse racing and its parimutuel gambling.
It is corrupt, skewed, and abusive to everyone else. The tracks themselves are co-conspirators. Shame on them. They are eating their own.
This is all still mostly in the dark but needs to be brought into the light.
I think the discussions on this board are probably the only effort out there to do so. Please keep it up, persevere.
Second: Horseplayers lack effective litigation resources. Is there any chance of a horseplayers association forming and retaining real litigation powers? i.e. real shark lawyers. I would pay dues to that end.
If something isn’t done, the game will continue to lose players as payouts continue to diminish.
I remember when Saratoga turf triples were routinely 4-figure payouts. I have no problem betting $100, $200 to hit that, but I ain’t going to lay $10 down to hit a $75tri
Multi-race winning wagers were once upon a time routinely close to life-changing payouts, and it took bucks and balls to play one. Now, three and four figure payouts in multi-race wagers are routine.
Too many races payout a pittance for the effort regular live players put in, even on big days.
And that isn’t because some people have better data. It is because of the CAW corrupt wagering models allowed by THE TRACKS THEMSELVES, who are truly the greedy guilty party in this downward spiral.
We fight it or we die.
They are killing the thrill.
And likewise, I have scaled back my wagering. It’s not worth it on most races now. I love numbers and handicapping, but the thrill is in cashing a big ticket. And the Thrill is bleeding out.
I will help do whatever it takes to free our parimutuel wagering from this CAW parasite. We need organization and leadership. This is not a naive plea.
There’s a class action suit out there, and the attorneys involved are no joke.
I\'d like to see what the odds on everyone did. There was only 4500 on the riderless horse. Talking small money here.
Yes! Ok, now I do recall reading a headline about that.
I will try to keep up on that, but please keep the board updated, too.
If you feel there is any immediate thing a solo bettor effectively do towards this rectification, please let us know.
Thank you
They are handicapping / playing off information. Not just price fishing.
If it was the latter, they would would win a LOT less often
I\'d guess they are right about who is live 75% of the time or maybe a little more
That would be impossible if they only played \'overlays\'
Me, personally, thinks the horseracing industry ought to focus on:
1a Diminishing foal crops
1b Rooting out the CAW financial parasite that is skewing and thus impinging on fair parimutuel outcomes.
Such conduct only diminishes all aspescts of the industry and sport, financial, social, municipal, etc.
The tracks are the host and the CAWs are the parasite that are devouring the parimutuel pools.
This is a slow kill of the body itself. We need to deworm and the tracks just have to swallow the medicine.
We can\'t stand by and just die
As in race 2 at Parx yesterday. Jock falls off the 8 at the start, odds go from 5 to 8-1.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Just happ to tune in for the 9th today, good example of how the CAW really play, despite all fake hype.
The crushed the winner, and the winning exacta. They had it both ways in case the Rudy holds on .
They tossed the 5 completely. Shortish odds.
This is not playing to get 95 cents back on every $1 bet.