Terrible day. Put my bets in around 12:00 and then went home to watch it on TV.
Ashado - no suprise had in the super but was trying to beat him for first. I went off my prior post I thought he would be first or second.
Filly\'s - tried to be the favorite.
Turf - did not have the seven for second.
Sprint - This was the race I was going for. I thought the race was wide open and went with Jerry on this one with the one and nine. I thought they could get first or second. I turned out the one was coming from far back and the nine was just not fast enough. During the post parade I said Pletcher\'s running today watch out for speightstown. If you blew off Jerry\'s comment on STown I think that Super was possible.
Turf - easy super. I went against the favorite naturally.
Juvenille - I had a bad feeling about this one sitting at home because nothing wacky had happened yet. It happened!
Turf - dumb bet, Kitten was the one and two hole move here in the exotics.
Classic - Had the super here. Hoping to beat GZ for something big did not happen.
I generally avoid BC day since I am not confident in assessing horses from different venues. Review of yesterday\'s RedBoard Room pretty much revealed a total wipeout by the \"pros\" so I think I made the right move.
Yup, you made the correct call
Yeah, it was bad all right, and I actually thought I would be taking bigger hits than I have been. May still.
If SSF was going to run second (big trip race), SC was going to win the Fillies (performance of the day, by far), Speightstown was going to win, I wasn\'t going to cash those races no matter what. Live by the overlay, die by the overlay-- especially in the short run.
The two Euros killed me. Ouija Board because of the trip-- quick look says she ran maybe 1/2 point better than in the Arc (maybe because of Lasix, maybe not). If she had an average trip she wouldn\'t have been in the top 2, if she got the trip that she figured to get (remember, she dwelt 3 times in her last 5 starts, came from far back going 1 1/2 in the Arc) she would have lost far more ground and probably would have been out of the tri. I boxed 4, pressed 3-- who ran 2-3-4 at double digit odds. The exacta would have made me a winner for the day, forget about the tri. At the price, I would throw out OB every time in that situation.
Wilco was the other killer. I ended up throwing out both RR and PA, boxing Sun King and AA in exactas, and making a cold tri box of them and Lukas.
As far as comments about the day, we\'ll post the #\'s in a couple of days. The soft turf may not have helped Moscow Burning, Star Over The Bay, Soaring Free or Special Ring, we\'ll know better if they run back this year. The \"move-up\" issue is more complicated, though what John Chance said below is certainly a real possibility.
The ironic thing-- I was checking charts online throughout the day trying to figure out how northern and \"move-up\" horses were running. After Zito\'s horse ran well in the first and the shippers ran well in the Distaff, it was clear acclimation was not an issue. I worked out from the Sprint chart that the two Frankels, after adjusting for ground loss, ran decent. So when they got to the Classic (I was in a pretty bad mood by then-- there is nothing like doing bad in public when you\'re supposed to be an expert on the biggest day of the year) I made a token play of GZ, on top only, on some supers, and hit it. If I had made a full play I actually would have gotten out for the day.
Well yesterday may not have been too good, but Mass Media today certainly helped, as with Frankel going ok yesterday, he was likely to at least run the 0 from his last and probably a bit better with the good time into the race.
And the price was certainly right!
Just wish Voodoo could have held on for that exacta.
at any rate, thanks...a likely 8:1 winner always helps the day.
I leaned towards Jerry\'s analysis and used Soaring Free and Singletary in the p-6, but bet Soaring Free and not Singletary. Post position and info on yielding turf made my decision for me.
Bet Bwana Charlie across the board. 8 wide on the turn cost me a check. Bet Gold win and place.
Bet Indy in the Distaff. Had to check in the stretch at 45-1 (on a horse with 2 zeros last 2 outs), but was tiring anyway.
Got out with Ghostzapper and had I follwed my own instincts (he was a mortal lock), I\'d have bet the whole bankroll on him and passed the other races. Had 2 winners on a $32 p-6 ticket.
Mo,
It\'s nice to know someone got out. Not I. Oh well, back to 2500CL non winners 2 lifetime at Charlestown.