If you treat handicapping as an algorithm, the key question in every race is which of the many possible factors should be given the most weight. My reasonably successful approach to the big race has always been to give the greatest weight to the ability to get the distance, followed closely by some sign that the horse is improving. Relying heavily on those 2 factors & ignoring everything which has been said & written up to this pt, the logical plays are Saar & EOD in the top 2 slots, with PD, LL, WE,& BB underneath in tris & supers. Although HH does not fare well using these 2 criteria, he is so consistent that he also has to be included in 3rd & 4th.