I texted friends moments after R2 results were posted and said this is impossible on the ex and tri.
Who wants to tell me that everything is just fine in horse racing?
Maybe the Director of Wagering Development can brag to folks about this one.
Saw this right away as well. Check out some of the other $1.00 will pays with the winner, horse 7, who went of at 44/1 :
Horse Odds Will pay
#1 - 14/1 $574
#2 - 39/1 $131
#3 - 39/1 $998
#4 - 7/2 $164
#5 - 53/1 $285 got 2nd place
#8 - 76/1 $234
#10 - 9/2 $394
#11 - 9/1 $174 got 3rd
#14 - 11/1 $483 got 4th
#12 - Fav. 6/5 $109
The pool was $195,604.38. Not sure with a pool this size how large the wager needs to be to produce a large change in the payoff, but it seems as if the 1,3,10, &14 were the only ones not pounded at the window. For comparison the 12-4, and 12-10 favorite combos were only paying $11.
Pat Cummings posted the 7-5 exacta in the last 3-4 cycles
1:33.07, 992.52, 95.13 total bet
1:33.37, 1020.95, 100.13 total bet, $5 wager
1:34.07, 1333.67, 103.13 total bet, $3 wager
1:34.27, 286.74, 549.13 total bet, $446 wager
No one talks about the 13 cents in the pool I guess.
That aside, he says the pool was \"settled\" at 19 seconds into the race.
I\'ve watched the replay over and over again. I\'ve been told that the 578 was the bet for the score, 411 were hedges with those and that the 7-14 exacta went UP.
At 5f or later is when you can say the 7-14 is not going to happen and that 7 likely wins and that 5 11 will run down the 14.
Racing will tell you that folks are just that good at handicapping but they can\'t do it at 2 minutes to post, they always are the very last ones to wager, they are always able to get their wagers in, and they can make 10k bets in one second but it takes 19 seconds for the pools to reconcile and \"settle.\"
All very logical (sarcasm) and all very interesting as the game continues to slide when it comes to public confidence in the integrity of the pools.
How is that not past posting. What are the odds this gets investigated?
Did you see the trifecta payout. Hard to figure which one is worse.
The fix six fiasco during breeders cup at Arlington was fishy from the start.
This has the same fishy odor!
Here we go again.
Once race out of 1000 where their crazy punches on crazy longshots pays off, and horsetwit goes nuts.
The other 999 times where they get nothing , crickets. It\'s kinda comical.
They win a lot more often that 1 out of 1000, of course, but rarely involving two bombs.
I\'ve said here before, there are a lot of insane payoffs that most never see since they mostly lose.
\"Crazy punches on crazy longshots\". . . Wait, I thought they had sophisticated betting models?
Why didn\'t their crazy punches hit the win pool? How do we know it is a CAW? Why did they hit the Ex and Tri Pool with a \"Crazy punch\" but not the super?
How about we have it released where the $446 of winning late wagers came from?
Mike Maloney is probably the most respected player in the game from a credibility standpoint as a winning player and he wrote:
Keeneland race 2
I\'ve been watching Keeneland racing for over 50 years and exacta and trifecta prices in race 2 are the most questionable I\'ve ever seen. Both seem impossibly low by my math and experience
He tags Keeneland Racing, the Director of Wagering Development and Keeneland\'s Pres and CEO
But hey, it\'s comical!! Shut them out at 2 minutes to post on all pools and watch them Fail.
Many people are expert in one thing and not another. What goes on in the pools stays in the pools , until it hits the tote.
I\'m telling you , this kind of thing goes on all the time and twice on Sunday. The only thing I\'ll say is, they have probably gotten more aggressive in the last 5 years than they used to be.
No one likes prices going crazy on the last flash, but until they disable their ability to batch late, we\'re stuck with it .
I guess if everyone got together and demanded it, stop betting, we could get it done. Without the public money , there is no CAW
That\'s what has to happen! Without the general public the game fails. But until racetracks and their management feel that pain there won\'t be any changes. I know I\'m not alone in saying I\'m playing less every year.
If the inmates (CAWs) are running the prison, then nothing will change.
Since organizing a boycott of one race day seems like an impossible task, starting with a single race seems much more likely. The CAW\'s are not going away. The outrage on social media is not making an impact.
It\'s all about money and handle. Once they see it could be successful in a single race, it might force the tracks to listen. Just cut it all off at 2 MTP.
Nobody will be attracted to the game with what is going on right now.
Roman Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Since organizing a boycott of one race day seems
> like an impossible task, starting with a single
> race seems much more likely. The CAW\'s are not
> going away. The outrage on social media is not
> making an impact.
>
> It\'s all about money and handle. Once they see it
> could be successful in a single race, it might
> force the tracks to listen. Just cut it all off at
> 2 MTP.
> Nobody will be attracted to the game with what is
> going on right now.
Here is an idea - schedule for New Year\'s Day - a switch your action to a contest.
If everybody played a contest instead of the races, I would think that would send a message plus the gambler doesn\'t have to not gamble to do it. The biggest problem is that it might be too successful - if everybody makes the switch on a permanent basis.
Btw, this would have the positive side effect on your 2026 taxes - there is no question that the tax you will owe on your 2026 gambling will go down if you play a contest instead of betting in the pari mutuel.
FAIR DISCLOSURE - Starting Jan 1, 2026, I personally am going to try to move all of my action to contests.
Great idea.
Where does one go to find tournaments?
I agree dumping bets into the pools late is irritating. It\'s even conceivable that some CAW\'s can compute and forecast the effect of their bets on payoffs. Is one CAW colluding with other CAW illegal?
Just wondering what \"retail players\" consider a CAW\'s advantage other that rebates?
A little bit of simple math to highlight from this race 2 exacta after a friend called upset about this outcome. Note: no one has discussed the trifecta much which if there is any data about the amount in the final cycle, I\'d love to see it.
Total Exacta Pool: $195,604.00
Takeout: 19.5% on exactas
Remaining Pool for Winning Bettors: $157,561.22
Exacta Payout for $1: $286.74
Winning Combinations by Dollars: $549.00
Winning Combos Bet in the Very Last Cycle: $446.00
Percent of 7-5 winning combo bet in the last cycle (likely CAW money): 81%
$446.00 winning bets in the final cycle x $286.74 winning $1 payoff = $127,886.04.
$127k is the amount that the final cycle of exacta bettors extracted from the pool. (Likely all CAW\'s)
$127,886.04 divided by $157,561.22 = 81% of the pool for winning bettors betting (included) in the very last flash. Doubtful much if any of that cycle was retail money. Interesting that the final cycle of money on that 7-5 combo was 81% of that combo and that the final cycle winning amount extracted 81% of the pool after takeout.
I\'ve heard people say they would have won more if they had bet a smaller amount. I disagree. This is about extracting all they can and they extracted everything that they could.
The real secret here is that the tracks know how much percentage wise the CAW\'s are in the pool and for whatever reason don\'t want to share that with the public. Is it north of 60, 70, 80%? They tell you it\'s not but have you seen any proof? I\'m sure they are putting that together now along with letting you know exactly where those $446 of winning bets came from on Thursday.
Go to horse tourneys.com and horseplayers.com. A deposit in one can be used for both. Horseplayers is NHC and BCBC. Horsetourneys is money and other handicapping tournaments. You will get the hang of it after a bit. Good luck R
Tav,
They are betting after the start of the race is a logical conclusion one can draw.
Their crazy punches are not so crazy once they have seen the favorite have a bad break. As I said, they bet the 578 for the Score. The 411 were used with those if I recall as hedges.
Roberts Communications provides CAW\'s with a Live Feed. ADW\'s do not have this exact live feed. The final cycle settles in at 19 seconds in this instance. I don\'t know how many seconds they have but they have some amount time in my opinion. I\'m not the first to highlight this common thread but I\'ve seen it since at least early summer more notably than ever. As I have said several times, they have the ability to make 10k bets in a single second; but the pool doesn\'t settle until 19 seconds?? Hmmm...
Now that enough time has passed and the race won\'t be identified, there was one instance where the favorite broke poorly, the other contender was made the favorite but only for the original and most logical on paper favorite to be good enough to overcome the poor start and run down the loose leader in a stakes race. Extra time is not an infallible method if it is only the first furlong plus. But it is a big edge if you can toss heavy favorites that need to be close or in front early.
As I\'ve said several times, shut them out of all the pools at two minutes and you will see that for this and other reasons, they won\'t be nearly as successful.
That\'s a fun theory, but imagine the logistics of having to decide what gets played within a few seconds of the start . No way they are betting for 10 seconds. Kind of hard to prove that though , since the pool updates on retail ADW\'s are so slow.
Then you\'d have to get away with this for years, with no one blowing the whistle.
https://x.com/socialtippers/status/1979570196684956075
This tweet pretty good highlight of how and what they bet.
Old news to me , like 20 years old.
June 21, 2025. BAQ, Race 10.
4-5 winning exacta went from 114-1 to 41-1.
18-1, 6th choice with 4-1 3rd choice.
Favorite, Perugia, 1.10-1. PERUGIA got away to an awkward start when splaying her legs at the break
_________________________
August 11, 2025, Finger Lakes, Race 5.
Iron Man Ira was Even money but subsequently after the break went off at 2-1 as the 2nd choice. Every single exacta went UP involving Iron Man Ira in the final cycle.
2nd Choice once final pool settled: IRON MAN IRA Stumbled badly at the start tossing the jockey to the track.
________________________
Oct. 16, 2025, Keeneland, Race 2
The decrease on the winning exacta well documented here and elsewhere.
Favorite: MATTY\'S BABY stumbled at the start,
________________________
Sept. 11, 2025. BAQ, Race 8
3-10 winning exacta $689 to $188.
25-1 8th choice with 7-1 5th choice.
Favorite: BEIRA coaxed from the gate, chased eight paths off the inside down the backstretch, tucked five then four wide into the turn, briefly tucked three wide and was placed to a protective hold nearing the five-sixteenths, got eased up into upper stretch before being pulled up straightened away, then was attended to and vetted on track and subsequently transported off the course via the equine ambulance.
Boscar -
Since you understand this, what is column C? Is it (a) the amount invested in the last cycle or (b) the grand total invested after the last cycle? If (b), that\'s just the math of parimutuel betting, but if (a) that\'s interesting to me.
C - B , is the amount bet on the last flash (CAW)
https://archive.is/20250722140016/https://www.wsj.com/us-news/texas-lottery-gamblers-jackpot-win-40e3d6fb
https://www.smh.com.au/national/36m-in-profits-gambling-business-just-a-hobby-ato-told-20120802-23gpf.html
https://www.tradematesports.com/en/blog/zeljko-ranogajec-sports-betting
This quote says it all. \"Ranogajec himself said; “it’s simple, if you bet $100 and lost $5, but you get a 10% rebate, you still make 5%. You always win, if you bet very large and it’s a pari-mutuel pool, you depreciate it so far that you end up getting under fair odds. If you fix something at $8, you get six, but if you get a rebate it puts you into the positive.â€
TGJB was instrumental in banning CAW\'S 2MTP in New York. Wish more tracks would follow suit.
Where can somebody source this information, the information Pat Cummings always shares. Like what time the last batch of wagers , and combos in the last cycle? Is that private info that gets leaked? Or is it public?
Thanks. I should have been able to figure that out for myself by looking at the chart. That said, I think the X post is a little misleading. Column E is just the total exacta pool minus takeout. In parimutuel betting, it is always equal to the amount bet on a combo times the payoff on that combo. \"Hedging parity\" suggests that the CAWs bet enough to make them indifferent to the outcome. If that is what they were trying to do (which seems unlikely), they did it imperfectly.
I might or might not have played a part in their thinking, but even if so I was way short of instrumental.
Good catch on that . Those numbers were suspiciously close , lol
Even so , I did a few calcs , too lazy to type them all in . Pretty sure all the bets produced substantial profit if hit, even if the dutch was imperfect.
The winning number returned 127,000 +
A long message with exact quotes I attempted to post wouldn\'t post. The website continues to struggle here with no link features beyond copy and paste and no ability to Bold, Underline, Etc. And now often messages don\'t even post.
Short version: Check out Frank Scatoni\'s Replies from yesterday on x.
He states that tellers once had a grace period of 5 seconds to cancel bets. And when horses as favorites break bad or don\'t make the front, he theorizes if they (CAW\'s) can still exploit this loophole if it still exists.
So maybe they are not past posting and maybe they are prepared for Past Canceling which fits the profile of the ones I listed above. Again, he clearly states it is not a fact just a possibility.
I had the exact quotes typed out but the message would not POST despite several attempts.
I\'m well aware of the cancel feature as this goes back to the 90\'s .
Tell ya what, if the caw are making $10,000 bets and cancelling within some 5 second window , just shut the game down now, and arrest everyone involved.
I don\'t think that\'s happening, but it should be impossible to do. I thought I saw a quote claiming they could not cancel bets. I rarely see anyone cancelling even mid betting, except for a mistake thats obvious .