Ask the Experts

General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: Silver Charm on October 13, 2025, 08:31:58 AM

Title: Horses Winning by 20 Lengths at Keeneland
Post by: Silver Charm on October 13, 2025, 08:31:58 AM
With an 1/8th of Mile Stretch. This is the kind of \"stuff\" we used to see at River Downs. Latonia in January on a night card.

Who does the Testing there? The Establishment? The Deep State? If Scott Lake or Jorge Navarro shipped in and pulled this off a pollen nano particle would be labeled some sort of \"Zoid\" or \"Caine\" and there would be all hell to pay.

And dont tell me this is much Ado about nothing. Same Names. Same Outfit. And a Good Ole Boy Network saying \"dont worry we got this\".....
Title: Re: Horses Winning by 20 Lengths at Keeneland
Post by: Fairmount1 on October 13, 2025, 06:12:18 PM
The past 200 days (gets you back prior to the Kee Spring meet), the trainer in graded stakes in Kentucky:

5 for 32, 16%, ROI of $1.00.

4 of those 5 graded stakes wins were on turf with the only dirt winner Good Cheer.

It has been my belief for some time that the rules for Graded Stakes races have more eyes, stricter testing, or more rules.  I don\'t know what\'s different and don\'t care a whole bunch except to say I hope that trend continues to all levels of racing in Ky.  I have no information from any trainers other than a few comments Derby weekend that things are different in Ky than in Ark.  That\'s from a clean, clean trainer whose win percentage reflects that they don\'t \"take an edge.\"  

Big picture, I\'ve been tossing many, many of his and others\' horses in Kentucky in the Graded Stakes Races.  

I\'m happy to see he has another horse of a lifetime.  Let\'s see him in a graded stakes in Kentucky.  In many ways racing is like real estate these days when looking at the supertrainers:  Location, Location, Location.

__________________

Baffert has three horses in Saturday at Keeneland in two Graded Stakes.  He is 1 for 10 (10%) last 200 days in Kentucky in Graded Stakes.  Fort Bragg his lone winner.  

Brown in the same categories of last 200 days in Kentucky in Graded Stakes:  4 for 26.  3 of those 4 winners on Turf.

Asmussen in same categories:  2 for 32.  Both on Dirt.  He\'s been particularly bad on turf in graded stakes in Kentucky save Cogburn for some time.  (those 2 wins came in April at Kee and Sept at CD)

Giving up some of my good information here.  Good Luck!
Title: Re: Horses Winning by 20 Lengths at Keeneland
Post by: Fairmount1 on October 13, 2025, 07:09:36 PM
As to your point about this ridiculous effort, here are some facts from Ed DeRosa on X.

This was only the 3rd time since 1990 that a horse won a race by at least 20 lengths at Keeneland.  

It was the largest margin of victory in a 2yo MSW or in a 2yo two-turn race in 35 years at Keeneland.

And it was just the 16th 2yo to win a 2yo MSW route by at least 20 lengths since 1990 and the first time it has happened at a track most people would call an \"A\" level track.  

Hope he doesn\'t mind me posting his information.  Nonetheless, there is some reminder of Patch Adams MSW win at CD in November in my mind. (1:20 3/5 winning by 10 1/2 lengths in a 12 horse field).

After that:

Loses Southwest Stakes at OP at 4-5.  (4th)
Loses Tampa Bay Derby at 1.90-1 as fav.  (4th)
Wins CD N1X on Derby Day, R13 on the penultimate race on the card.
Wins G1 Woody Stephens and Allen Jerkens at Sar.

Notice where he didn\'t enter a graded stakes like say the Pat Day Mile.  

Retired and off to stud now.
Title: Re: Horses Winning by 20 Lengths at Keeneland
Post by: Silver Charm on October 13, 2025, 07:54:24 PM
I know all about Patch Adams. And anyone who follows this Board knows I know all about Patch Adams. That maiden race that day at CD was a JOKE!! Just like this Maiden race at Keeneland the other day was an Embarrassment. I love the comments after of \"we knew he wanted to go long\". So that moved him up 25 lengths off prior races. Yah right...

Perhaps you have spotted a subtle sea change over the last 200 days. He is Mr C Brown
0 for 10 ellis,
0 for 14 at KD,
0 for 4 CD fall meet,
4 for 22 CD spring...3 of which were Derby weekend..so it was prolly 1-33 in Ky since Derby Day

But before anyone says \"there see its happening\". Just remember this about our 20 length Magical Trainer...
5 Straight Fall Keeneland Trainer Titles and
14 wins last year Fall Meet: He led all trainers with 14 victories.
6 stakes wins: He also set a record for the most stakes victories by a trainer at a single Keeneland meet in history.

This was only 350 days ago. Meet the New Boss, Same as the Old Boss. That song was \"We Won\'t Get Fooled Again\". If you look closely there is Trend going on here too. And it smells like Keeneland Backstretch manure all the way down here to S Florida....
Title: Re: Horses Winning by 20 Lengths at Keeneland
Post by: Boscar Obarra on October 15, 2025, 03:16:01 PM
What was the point of riding that horse out like that, never let up  , could have been eased and won by 10 .  Kinda dumb.  They afraid it will teach the horse a bad habit ?
Title: Re: Horses Winning by 20 Lengths at Keeneland
Post by: Fairmount1 on October 19, 2025, 05:55:46 PM
Silver,

My last racing project for the weekend completed just for you (and my own knowledge haha).  I went back and looked at the Magical Trainer the past 5 years in GRADED STAKES at CHURCHILL and KEENELAND specifically, year by year.  

Here ya go if interested.  Maybe it is meaningful, maybe it isn\'t over next 5 weeks at Kee and CD.  Tabiti (GB), Yes It Tiz (AE) on Friday;  Final Gambit, Hit Show, Dragoon Guard on Saturday.  I like Moonlight best Saturday with our pal Uncle Bill\'s 3yo Gosger in there as well as one I\'m always cheering for to win.  

5 years ago to 4 years ago:  CD, 9/28, 32%.  Kee, 8/22, 36%
4 years ago to 3 years ago:  CD, 4/23, 17%.  Kee, 4/17, 24%
3 years ago to 2 years ago:  CD, 7/24, 29%.  Kee, 6/25, 24%
2 years ago to 1 year ago:   CD, 5/25, 20%.  Kee, 7/16, 44%
1 year ago to present:       CD, 3/22, 14%.  Kee, 2/13, 15%
Title: Re: Horses Winning by 20 Lengths at Keeneland
Post by: Roman on October 19, 2025, 10:46:09 PM
The \" Barn is hot and the horses are running out of there skin\" statement always concerns me. Hypothetically, why would a horse from a stable have any cause or effect on how his stable mate runs in another race and or surface and class?

There is one I can think of.
Title: Re: Horses Winning by 20 Lengths at Keeneland
Post by: Boscar Obarra on October 20, 2025, 10:53:00 AM
lol,  well if you listen to certain pundits they claim its because the vibe around the barn picks up when it starts winning  and magically lifts all boats, and all figs

I always thought that to be an amusing take.
Title: Re: Horses Winning by 20 Lengths at Keeneland
Post by: Silver Charm on October 20, 2025, 05:58:33 PM
Fairmount and Company I enjoy the debates and conversations.  I believe I posted last Spring about \"Super Trainers at Churchill Downs\". About how maybe a 20% Win Percentage and a guy is killing it. The trend was obvious. But a trend is a trend until it isn\'t. So thank you for that info just keep an eye on the data. There is Trainers Title to be had and if someone has to empty the barn and do what it takes to get they will. Keeneland is a FARCE right now. It the most corrupt Track in the country from handle to doping and so on. So I would be cautious going against him.

I do want to add that Nationally for a guy who was kinda nowhere 7 years ago or so. He currently owns FOUR TRACK RECORDS. How long has Bill Mott been training? 40 years? I don\'t think he has ever held one. Shug? He has one on Turf at Saratoga. And Todd Pletcher, drum roll please....has at least FIVE. Three At Saratoga for gods sake and two at Gulfstream. About as many dead horses as he has had there. Now if someone thinks that\'s a Cheap Shot. Left Bank and company aren\'t roaming around Old Friends are they? Nah I didn\'t think so.....
Title: Re: Horses Winning by 20 Lengths at Keeneland
Post by: Roman on October 20, 2025, 11:29:07 PM
Speaking of Pletcher,  anyone hear anything about Grande,  his scratched KY Derby runner?

No works posted since his work at Keeneland before the derby.
Title: Keeneland Racing in Focus
Post by: Silver Charm on October 22, 2025, 11:11:32 AM
People have had enough. Now Portnoy and Repole want to launch a Wagering Strike effective 1/1/26.

https://x.com/RepoleStable/status/1980648580584018107?t=uTbQywQc6iIpSZ_vSpqH2g&s=19

And now Former State Congressman Damon Thayer (now an Indutry consultant)  is weighing in with the brilliant idea of letting the free market decide or perhaps the General Assembly needs to get involved. Scroll UP after seeing what Ms Sahadi said for Thayers\' remarks. And she is dead on.

https://x.com/jenine_sahadi/status/1981020549360037898?t=eGOmae2i56sBwImtvkYzcA&s=19

The industry and what is going on at Keeneland right now is NATIONAL JOKE!!!

https://x.com/racetrackandy/status/1980596590562955742?t=7r3SRN4dBlXvrKcpKgMsJA&s=19
Title: Re: Keeneland racing in Focus
Post by: TGJB on October 22, 2025, 11:25:07 AM
Silverâ€" stop characterizing people or entities (“corrupt”) in a way that will get both of us sued.

The links don’t work, at least for me.
Title: Re: Keeneland racing in Focus
Post by: Boscar Obarra on October 22, 2025, 11:39:31 AM
The links work cut and paste.
Title: Re: Keeneland Racing in Focus
Post by: Silver Charm on October 22, 2025, 11:40:14 AM
I changed the Title. And I dont want this to create an issue for you or with you. But I\'ve said what I said.

If someone wants to break out all Wagering and Vet Records to make their Case then Sue. But be prepared to disclose everything. Going back like 5 years. Time Stamps you name it. Approving Pharmacist etc etc

I\'m good my friend!!