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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: billk5300s on September 10, 2025, 03:24:37 PM

Title: Quatrocento
Post by: billk5300s on September 10, 2025, 03:24:37 PM
I realize that I’m preaching to the choir here and I’m not red boarding but I waited all day for Quatrocento.  He was 9/2 ML, and 7/2 with less than a minute to post.  Much to my dismay he won at 4/5 and I got split for the exacta and tri.  This crap never ends.  I’m ready for a permanent sabbatical!
Title: Re: Quatrocento
Post by: adelphi on September 10, 2025, 05:56:27 PM
Ouch! It just continues and continues and continues.
Title: Re: Quatrocento
Post by: Fairmount1 on September 11, 2025, 07:40:14 AM
NEW TRACK RECORD!!

Interesting this was a horse on the lead, setting slow fractions, loose, and the big drop in odds happens in the very final cycle.  Lost to Army Officer 2 back and that one runs last at 9-1?

\"Did the drop match the horizontals?\" is the argument some industry folks like to make.  Some just can\'t believe something nefarious could be going on likely, in part, because their livelihoods depend upon the game and they could never admit that they are involved in something where integrity of the game could be a problem.  (Hard to believe but I\'ve discussed with several people and believe this to be true).  I haven\'t looked at the comparisons but the fact many odds drops do not match the sophisticated models of the CAW\'s and do match the early part of a race at times is quite a statement on what could be happening here.

I will also state that people with access to see the final cycles of betting after the races and can genuinely handicap can see there has been funny business going on.  True Statement, not an assertion, RIP richiebee.

This is the number one issue in racing right now.  I used to be against it but I\'ve pivoted my opinion as is fashionable to say these days on how to fix it.  The pools need to be CLOSED to everyone at 2 minutes to post.  When pools have been closed prior to a start and there was a little unexpected post drag, I am told there was nothing that seemed concerning about the final cycle of betting.  It still had the final CAW adjustments.  But it did not have any wagers matching the starts of the races and nothing that seemed completely out of whack with horizontals.  

As for the horse that breaks through the gate after betting would CLOSE early as many have suggested, they would become a Purse Only with a Refund to those bettors.  And the horizontals, the technology is there to make alternates for any such late scratches.  Don\'t tell me it isn\'t.  If CAW\'s can put in 10k bets per second at the bell and the tracks are their partners in crime (literally?), then tracks can figure this out.  

More on this later when I have more time.  For now, I can\'t believe you aren\'t celebrating one of the great Dueling Grounds aka Kentucky Downs performances of all time.  This doesn\'t even begin to address the issues with timing technology at that track for the 7 days.  SMH
Title: Re: Quatrocento
Post by: Boscar Obarra on September 11, 2025, 11:00:40 AM
Nope.   Did a quick post mortem

  Horse was crushed in the Pick X\'s

  Horse was 5/2 minutes before the off , not 7/2

  Ex and tri came back fair to high

  So someone made a big win bet late. Shudda been more like 7/5 .   Was never a 7/2 shot, those opening prices are science fiction

  Oddly, the on screen  omitted the horse completely. So cant say when the odds actually moved.   Anyone thinking they were cashing at 5/2 got a rude surprise .
Title: Re: Quatrocento
Post by: billk5300s on September 11, 2025, 11:27:41 AM
On my NYRA bets screen the odds went 7/2….5/2….4/5 with 0 MTP.  Chad had a horse (General Partner) who took some early action so given that and this horse went to 4/5 it didn’t have a good look.
Title: Re: Quatrocento
Post by: Boscar Obarra on September 11, 2025, 01:41:45 PM
no idea what nyra bets showed, but the live feed had it 5/2 long before they started loading