A little bit of interesting but likely meaningless breeding information from Del Mar\'s opening day program.
In Race 7, FTS Imnotvanillasky debuts for Mark Glatt. I have no idea how she will run and I am making no claims about her ability to run. However, I do want to note a few things about the horse\'s breeding.
Mom Sambamzajammin raced 10 times. 10-1-3-1 with a 2nd place finish on debut.
Full brother Really Big News exclusively raced on turf with a record of 14-1-4-2 with a 2nd place finish on debut.
Full brother Letmein has raced 7 times. 7-1-4-1 with a 2nd place finish on debut. This one runs in race 9 and likely a chance the horse goes off favored.
Half brother Macho Sam raced 17 times. 17-2-6-3.
Lucky Sam raced one time finishing a terrible 12th in 2023. 1-0-0-0
Combined record of mom and siblings per drf although only the ones above are showing so the numbers for the sibling summary don\'t add up with the PP\'s of siblings available. Nonetheless if drf is correct, mom and siblings of Imnotvanillasky: 53-6-18-6.
Record of the PP\'s showing for mom and siblings: 49-5-17-7
Either way, the family sure likes to show up for the 2nd place spot and often on debut. Not sure I\'ve ever seen anything quite like that from a breeding standpoint.
I\'m interested in Druliner in race 7 but doubt the horse is anywhere near the M/L of 5-1. Worth watching the replay and deciding if this one figured it out late and runs a big one this time. Full sister debuted in March for MdnClm50k and won at 5-1 for Lewis. I\'ll take my chances in the win pool on Druliner at 7-2 or higher. I might just have a straight exacta 5-1 in the race also for a small amount.
In the Oceanside, Bodi Zafa is the value.
I\'ll let you toss Letmein based on that 2nd place breeding if you like and find the winner in race 9. I\'m still searching a bit but will let Glatt beat me here.
Race 10 I\'ll have Lady Chic who galloped out well chasing the winner and Miss Artois on my horizontals. Unfortunately the takeout on p4 and late p5 is ridiculous so I\'ll likely bet Druliner to win in race 7 and swing on the $3 Late Pick 3 with a 15% takeout.
Hello Fairmount,
Good information on the family. I regularly do this type of research, time permitting. I also note TG has family performance numbers when possible.
At one point maybe 2 years ago it occurred to me that the fly in the ointment is the trainer variable. It is rare to find all the siblings going to the same conditioner. To quote Tom Ainslie - \"Training beats breeding\". This goes against the \"controlled environment\" that research values.
I think the kind of information you researched is useful. I only wanted to point out this (training) factor that I didn\'t take into account for a long time.
Totally agree with the comments on takeout of the late P5 and all the P4 bets in CA. The late P5 takeout at nearly 24% (23.68% to be exact) is almost 10% higher than the early P5 takeout (14%). It is hard enough to hit a P5 as it is, but if you hit the late P5, they keep almost 1/4 of the pool. The $3 late P3 and the $5 late DD both have 15% juice, while the WPS are a bit over 15% (15.43%). The rolling DD is 20% and everything else is either 22.68% (exactas) or 23.68% (any bet not mentioned). By contrast, Saratoga has a 15% takeout on all P5 and P6 wagers, a similar 16% on WPS, a lower exacta and DD take out generally at 18.5%, but that jumps up to 24% on trifecta, superfecta, grand slam, P3 and P4 bets.
I have not delved into the PP much yet, but as far as Dmr 7 is concerned opening day, I agree that Druliner will go off lower than 5/1 - 3/1 or 7/2 might be about right. Add in that Lewis hits at 28% second time out and the horse will likely break better here, I think she is a solid selection. Nothing too compelling about Big Coin, but the outer posts often fair well at Dmr in sprints - she is in post 10. Trainer Rafeal DeLeon has started just two firsters at Dmr in the past five years and one of them won. Don’t like the gap in works though and she has only four relatively recent works coming into this race at Los Al, but most have been quick. Maybe she is worth a flyer in the field of Cal bred 2YO at a morning line of 20/1.
In the Oceanside, the pace looks very contentious and arguably Iron Man Cal will benefit from that. I hate to chalk out, but he looks best. Hs last race was against a very good group. Both Zulu Kingdom and Test Score came back and won G1 events since American Turf on Derby Day. I had a similar idea to Fairmount’s where I also was interested in a 15/1 shot out of the Cinema and I thought Incanto might be a decent price play getting a pocket trip behind some dueling leaders and perhaps getting first jump on the closers, which he will have to do as he has not shown that much late pop as he looks like more a grinder type.
#1 Cali Cat ran 3 solid sprint races TY, and if he didn\'t back up in his last I would like him. Looks like the minors are his ceiling
#2 Incanto decent sprints but another that backed up going longer
#3 Iron Man Cal is an obvious contender. Nice line never going back, paired his 2YO top in his first race TY. The last race the best turf route fig and an obvious contender as the ML Fav
#4 Lyle The Crocodile making his 2nd US race with a decent enough pattern, hasn\'t gone backwards. He\'s needs to make a forward move to contend but that isn\'t impossible. Has shown speed and may be pace compromised by a few in here.
#5 Artislas has some solid numbers, a few excuses for the 2 backwards moves. Hernandez rides very well for Mullins, this one is competitve on numbers. I wouldn\'t sleep on this one.
#6 Kale\'s Angel has run fast sprints, routes nothing special. He\'s a threat on his very fast sprints but this isn\'t a sprint.
#7 Game Warrior has a nice pattern, he\'s just a couple points slower than the faster ones. A forward move is certainly possible and if he is anywhere near his ML he\'s useable. Blinkers go back on today. I think his ceiling is the minors.
#8 Day And Age this horse appears to like 2 turns better than 1, has run nice figures, solid pattern. Another slower than the best in here but can move forward and compete.
#9 Mala seems outgunned
#10 Bodi Zafa has a solid pattern, marching down to the co best turf figure in the race in his last. He\'ll have to work out a trip from the 10 hole going a mile. He is the clear value in this race at his 15-1 ML which I will be shocked if he is anywhere close to that
I have 2 horses that have run the same number going long on the turf. One is 9/5 ML and the other 15/1 ML. IMC has a beautiful pattern, but Bodi just ran a race just as fast
#10 Bodi Zafa will hopefully be \"Reeling In the horses\" down the stretch as the speed horses do the \"Dirty Work\". \"Only A Fool Would Say That\" he doesn\'t have any chance in here. Hopefully it will be a \"Black Friday\" for the others and runs a \"Time Out of - his - Mind\"
#10 Bodi Zafa to win
minors include 1,3,4,5,7,8
Nice work. If you are going or even if you are not Good Luck. You and Fairmount1. BTW Gary you might be right about Fort Washington. They have no idea what happened. May run back in the Million at Colonial TBD