I would like a few viewpoints on this race. I can\'t wrap my head around the outcome. How does Durante possibly beat this field. The horse does\'nt figure by any metric other than Jose Ortiz getting on and the owner being the trainer.
poslla34 Wrote:
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> I would like a few viewpoints on this race. I
> can\'t wrap my head around the outcome. How does
> Durante possibly beat this field. The horse
> does\'nt figure by any metric other than Jose Ortiz
> getting on and the owner being the trainer.
First of all I think it is important to avoid \"Tunnel Vision\" i.e. always consider multiple prospects and perspectives.
Second I excluded the horses I considered to have vulnerabilities.
So toss Skelly (I expected a bounce) and Great Mischief (His last suggested to me he wouldn\'t run his best race).
Next I considered Happy Is a Choice\'s last race to suggest an off race possibility and I expected him to be too weak late to win. Here Mi Song big effort 30+ weeks back caused a string of 3 sub par races. Again, suggesting a questionable performance in this race. Champlin scratched.
I was left with two contenders before I even looked at the tote board. But of those two I didn\'t think it was likely Durante would beat World Record. So I played an exacta accordingly. I admit I was surprised when Durante went by World Record to win.
I did consider that Durante had a small chance of improving on his last race which apparently he did. But I used him based on a fewest misses (golf principal). I remember being confident about World Record\'s overall pattern while realizing he had a chance of regressing and still winning which he probably did and almost did, based on the very fast 4F time resulting in a slow third furlong. Which was key for Durante even though he gave up some ground tipping out to rally past spent rivals.
Bottom line consider Durante inherited the win. Had the pace been slower ???
Good analysis, hopefully you boxed the exacta
The race came back slow on the Beyer scale (88). Durante also had a ground-saving trip. I have him getting the third fastest TG fig in the race.
poslla34 Wrote:
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> Good analysis, hopefully you boxed the exacta
No exacta box. I imagined Durante over World Record as a Perfect Storm and not worth a ticket.