Do the right thing Aaron Wellman. He wants NO part of Sovereignty now. Travers Day is where we settle this.
Forgetting the handicapping opinions involved here (for myself), if Journalism wins the Belmont at Saratoga (1 1/4 miles as you all know and not the Test of Champions 12 furlong distance), . . . can we have all the folks raging and fanning the flames over the Triple Crown spacing pump the brakes?
That would be:
2nd in Derby
1st in Preakness
1st in Belmont
I listened to a few of the old ABC full episodes of the Derby and Preakness during a Louisville to St. Louis drive this morning. In 1994, Al Michaels says: \"The Triple Crown is so grueling. We were in Louisville for the Kentucky Derby 2 weeks ago today. 14 horses went to the gate. But only 4 of those are here today. The horses that finished 1st, 3rd, 6th, and 8th. So, 10 others have not come including the Derby favorite Holy Bull, the Derby 2nd choice Brocco, and the horse that finished 2nd in Louisville Strodes Creek. We may see all or a couple of those in the Belmont 3 weeks hence. But we have 4 horses from the Derby plus 6 others comprising a field of 10 today with 9 betting interests.\"
The more things the change, the more they stay the same.
While at Preakness, a rumor or two flew from some folks (working) at Pimlico that the Preakness folks may just push the race 1 or 2 weeks further out and force NYRA\'s hand on the Belmont. This, of course, with the goal of attracting fuller fields for the Preakness including more Derby horses.
I maintain it isn\'t the schedule scaring folks off per se. The purse of the Derby is $5 million. The purse of the Preakness is $2 million. The purse of the Belmont is $2 million. If you want to chase more of those Derby entrants, a significantly higher purse than the Belmont would be a solid first step and force their hand on their Belmont purse. Combine that with a legitimate Triple Crown bonus program for horses competing in all 3 legs like they did with VISA and Chrysler way back when and you could get the horsemen to suddenly ship those horses into Baltimore.
The modern training \"programs\" also contribute to the \"Racing Less is More\" approach which means the medication rules and withdrawal times are driving the new approach to spacing. (Among other possible components of various \"programs\").
May I point out though that the Belmont field with the full 5 weeks of rest since the Derby for the non-Preakness runners has resulted in a probable field of six at the moment and that assumes Journalism goes. So, is it really the Spacing of the Triple Crown leading to these issues? Preakness field was larger than six. On a handicapping note: Sovereignty, Journalism, Baeza, Hill Road, Heart of Honor are all horses nowhere near the lead. Leaving Rodriguez whose trainer suddenly can\'t find more than a lone G1 winner for 3yo\'s on dirt for a good while now as has been well documented on X. (NOTE: Two of the Six possible runners return from the Preakness just 3 weeks prior . . .GASP!)
I\'m still holding on to the current schedule no matter if Journalism runs or not. It sure seems that\'s the wrong side of the fence to be on as the game continues to evolve. From a non-gambling perspective, a Journalism victory would hopefully throw some Flame Retardant on the embers of Triple Crown spacing changes.
I am reading a pretty good book now by Golf Course Designer Tom Fazio. He discusses his designs with pictures and explanations.
Fazio said it would be wrong to go in and tear down Pebble Beach or Augusta National and rebuild it. On the other hand, as he said, if you look at pictires of those two courses and compare them to say 75 years ago they dont look the same. They have changed and had to change with time
Tiger Woods may have won at Augusta on a course 400 yards longer Palmer or Nicklaus. With a slant on the front of that 15th green that I assure wasnt there before. Like 30 or 40 yeara ago. The PGA is now in May. \"THATS NOT HOW IN WAS WHEN HOGAN DID IT\" a Traditionalist roared....
Cy Young didnt need a Pitch Clock and at least 4 days rest. But the game and players do now. It comes down to the quality of the game. The Triple Crown can be modified. No one said stretch it out until September. It you want to grow the audience sometimes you have to change.
Silver,
I think everyone has a certain stubborn streak but some in these parts are particularly afflicted. I\'m a little more open minded and willing to listen and learn on new ideas.
How does changing the schedule grow the audience? I assume the basic idea is that you need that Derby winner in the 2nd leg to keep them interested. If so, are you thinking the First Saturday of May, June, and July? If it leads to bigger fields, more TC horses competing in more races, and bigger audience draws I\'m all for it. My thought is the purses are so good for so many 3yo Derby\'s now at so many tracks that these guys start stalking and pouncing on other spots the moment Derby ends.
Would increasing the spacing to May/June/July remove the TC from people\'s minds? This would be a concern of mine.
Journalism suggests to me horses can still do it. These trainers, owners, etc just don\'t want to compete in all three and in part, it is b/c the Derby is bigger than the Triple Crown actually. That may be hard to comprehend but I genuinely believe that to be true now. McPeek and Lynch had to let their owners run in the Derby would be Exhibit 1 of 2025 for that idea. Part of it also is that in the \"old days\" whenever you want to define it, folks were more willing to go after the Big Dogs once they separated themselves like Sovereignty and Journalism have in this year\'s crop. I\'m not going to say that isn\'t true now but it is less true it would seem esp with more spots to point towards after Derby. A Belmont field of 6 likely after a 5 week break is concerning if you want to space out the TC, no?
I\'ll reiterate I believe increased purses for Preakness and Belmont (maybe the same 5 million as Derby) along with a specific Triple Crown bonus program for competing in all three (not just for the winner but for the top 3 let\'s say) would help the series also. TELL ME WHY THE JOCKEY CLUB COULDN\'T USE THEIR MONEY FOR THIS TRIPLE CROWN SERIES????
Long story short. I like the current format and think it can work in the face of modern times. Journalism is potentially proof of that idea. However, I\'m open to change IF it actually means it will lead to keeping the Derby names in people\'s faces, lead to bigger TC fields, and lead to many connections competing in all three. I just have serious doubts that will happen since the Derby \"event\" seems bigger than even pulling off a TC.
Silver
The triple crown was is never supposed to be easy and considering fairly recently we had two of them accomplish this we are on pace with history.
If we add in Point Given, Afleet Alex, Chrome, and the other horses that ran in all three legs only to loose one leg either in the front end or the back end shows this debate regarding the horse is fairly weak.
Grow the sport is the chant that beats the drums.
Well my friend I ask, we live in the era of instant gratification with a text a like on social media etc a world full of A.D.D.
I attend pro football games, stadiums are packed with more folks on the phone checking fantasy stats then watching the game. Same with concerts and any other big event. It’s not about watching the event it’s about I was there and I have the clicks to prove it as, I’m the product now.
Want to grow the sport give people something to route for. I have never heard of a fan route for the breeding shed. Personally my biggest issue the breeding greed is killing this sport and the breed.
How about taking care of the current fan base better?
CAW shut them out 5 minutes prior to post.
Lower take out especially on big days.
Constancy with the stewards.
But I’m just a big card better now who has made some nice connections on this site with peeps who share the same passion.
It’s not the triple crown schedule it’s the new world and AI sure isn’t gonna help.
Good luck my friend
John
I\'ll throw in one more idea I have to help the fan base -
For the following bets - WPS, Ex, DD, and maybe Tri and P3 - why not give a 10% payout increase to on-track bettors only. And only for the host track\'s races, not for simulcast races. That\'s one way to increase on-track attendance and betting.
Ken
Make your own conclusions.
From DRF:
“If there ever would have been a horse you could have tried the Triple Crown with, he might have been it â€" big, sturdy, came out good,†Mott said. “There was no reason physically why we couldn’t have run in the Preakness. We had no excuse other than we didn’t feel like it. The word Preakness I don’t think ever came up into our conversation. When you have a horse like that, you talk about a lot of things. Preakness was not one of them.â€
He said the exact same thing in an interview on HRRN a few days after the derby. Why did they keep him in the barn then?
He can do it , but why try?
That\'s like saying you can win the super bowl, and you have the team to do it, but forfeit the game because you don\'t feel like playing.
Does he realize how obtuse that sounds?
No. It’s like saying you want to win the Super Bowl.
Nobody is asking the right questions. Yes, you can get a good effort on two weeks rest. The question is if you run a top horse three times in five weeks, what have you got after that. Go look at the list of horses that ran well in all three races, and how many starts they made after that. ( Triviaâ€" I was involved with probably the last one to do so and win an Eclipse at four, and Victory Gallop didn’t run a top in one of the three. And that was back in 1998).
Also, look at the famous examples of Onion and Conquistador Cielo. They won on short rest, but how did they do after that?
Yes, many years ago, three races in five weeks was something horses could handle. And Cy Young won 511 games. Pretty sure that ain’t gonna happen again any time soonâ€" pitchers didn’t throw as hard back then, or put as much stress on bones and tendons. Horses didn’t either.
The question is not whether we should make the triple Crown “easierâ€. It’s how can we keep our stars around longer than five weeks. I was one of the people who told TSG to move back the Preakness.
Jerry, if Cy was pitching today, would he be successful? Hypothetically.
I get what you are saying. but is it the horse that has changed, or the people who manage them? I am not against moving the dates in any way. If the did change and most of the horses would run back, and all races have 14 or more horse fields, let\'s do it.
The TC races were not always on the same weekends. If I am not mistaken, they ran the Belmont before the Preakness before, and the Preakness was a week after the derby.
Clean trip at the Spa at 10 furlongs, tending to disagree. Gonna wait for the racing paper. A day or two yet.
If Cy was pitching today he would be really old, so….
Obviously correct, but still funny ðŸ˜,,
If he was 27 years old today? In his prime, but in this era. Hypothetically.
There really is no way to answer that question, but my guess would be he would get strafed. Athletes are bigger and stronger and take much better care of themselves. Gooden throwing 95 was a big deal, everybody does now. Cy probably didn’t break 90.
With horses we have speed figures. Read “Are RacehorsesGetting Faster†on this site.
My favorite picture of an athlete taking care of himself in the most appropriate way is.
Chiefs QB Len Dawson drinking a beer and smoking a cigarette during halftime of a Super Bowl.
Wasn\'t that Fresca?
I will say this. Aaron Welman knows more in his left toe than I do, period. So if he thinks his horse is ready for this race, I fully support him. They like their horse.
But I really like Sovereignty. This horse has a solid 3/8ths of mile drive. He was almost on the lead turning for home in Derby. He isnt a length of the stretch last jump closer. Mott won this race in 2010. Tacitus should have won. But those were a mile and a half. Its not going to matter on Saturday. And nobody said it was gonna be easy either.....
The ball itself has changed
So has the substances that they put on the ball.
Thank you for pointing this out. Another question: Where should the well-being of the horse enter the conversation?
The well being of the horse should be the only conversation. When the horse stops coming first, that\'s when desperate decisions are made, usually to the detriment of the horse.
Here is a recording of an accused vet from the Servis/Navarro fiasco. When other people make bad decisions regarding their horse, and it gets claimed or sold, it has repercussions that affect that animal no matter who owns it.
https://youtu.be/Sxam9JODr0s?si=vBSoYE0_rRr_xs2W
after seeing the TG\'s, i do not like that line, and i feel that tossing him is the value