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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: Roman on May 06, 2025, 03:41:53 PM

Title: Rail for Kentucky Derby
Post by: Roman on May 06, 2025, 03:41:53 PM
Jerry mentioned the turf rail possibly being dead , and after watching the replay a few times of the derby, every horse that was on or near the rail from the 1/2 mile pole to the wire either stopped running or looked like they were running on quick sand.

I think the \"He did not handle the surface\" excuse is used way to often, but being on the inside part of the track looked like a major dis-advantage.

So the question for the TG team , if there was a severe bias and being wide was the place to be, is the adjustment for being wide on the turns the same?
Title: Re: Rail for Kentucky Derby
Post by: TGJB on May 06, 2025, 04:11:40 PM
I’ll just say this for now. I finished Friday, and from the point where they sealed the track on, there was a dead rail.

Still working on Saturday, which is one of the toughest big race days I’ve ever had to deal with. Taking a close look at rails on both dirt and grass.

You don’t use the horses that raced on a dead rail to make variants. Which reduces the usable data.
Title: Re: Rail for Kentucky Derby
Post by: Dudley2 on May 06, 2025, 04:18:41 PM
TGJB- for the main track rail I am very interested to see what fig you assign to Burnham Square. Rail aside, do you account for troubled trips?
I hope you give him a solid 6 or 7! ðŸ˜,, Because those of us with eyes to see, will make some hay from that in his next out!
Title: Re: Rail for Kentucky Derby
Post by: johnnym on May 06, 2025, 06:25:49 PM
Biggest display of rail bias was the Churchill downs sprint IMO.
Banishing was coming with a head of steam Ortiz brought him inside and his momentum completely changed.
Allowing Mindframe to get up.