Relatively ignored in the wagering. Great value but cause for concern.
XXXX said he talked to XXXX yesterday and said he\'s ready to go. Looks Good. Very Aggressive
This is from inside the Barn. Sloppy Track. Many things going on you cant control. 7-1 is reasonable. He will be bet tje last 90 minutes
He ended up 7-1. Horses who made sense were on the tote at odds that made NO sense. Horses who made NO sense (at least at those odds) got bet because of a nickname or country singer or an influencer who sent out an email blast.
The Late Double with Patch Adams paid ~$39.75 for $2. A parlay was ~$45. The smart money was buried. But the dumb money gave some generous win odds if the plan went right and there was the usual \"need a little luck\".
He beat Pratt and Baeza to the spot on the far turn and mowed down Journalism in a steady drive. This Derby winner was much the best......
I think the main reason that Sovereignty went off as high as he did was because the 3 main PPs (DRF, BRIS, Equibase) had his speed #s similar to a lot of other horses in the field. I was amazed how much better Sandman, a horse Sovereignty had trounced in the Street Sense last year, looked on paper with a higher top on all 3 and towered over Sovereignty on Equibase. So, to the unsophisticated bettor, who took those #s as gospel, Sovereignty was just another horse and Sandman looked a lot better as a choice behind the dominant Journalism.
It was only the sheet players who saw him for what he was-a horse who could not only compete with Journalism, but with a great pattern beat him with any further development.
Then there were some of the people who loved him early & got in a future bet in the last pool at $21.40. They may not have seen his Fla. Derby sheet #, but figured it was probably a pair of the 1.75 and figured he was sitting on a big Derby performance. They sat out the win pool on Derby day and only played the exotics. The $1.72 extra per dollar doesn\'t seem like much, but with a nice sized future bet, it added up to a handy sum.
Generous price for sure. I agree this was largely due to the widespread belief that he was slower than the other contenders. Beyer and Crist emphasized this in their video preview and it was echoed in a lot of other coverage. Throw in the Mettalica money and the \"Japanese almost won last year angle\" and the clear second choice goes off at nearly 8-1.
For what it\'s worth, I don\'t think Sovereignty cares for the Gulfstream main track, and was running those figures in spite of his disdain for that surface. He seems to be \"climbing\" on that track, and his action is different than at Churchill.