My gut says 1 and 4 sprint to the lead, open a couple of lengths, then try to slow the pace down together and force others wide if they try to pass. Interested in others thoughts.
I completely agree with you, if you look at Bull\'s worktab it\'s quite clear Baffert has him on a dead send mission. Would be a little surprised if Rod duels the entire way, but it may come down to who gets away the cleanest. Understanding Bull let a maiden get in front of him last race, who they likely didn\'t see as a threat at all and didn\'t care, the training pattern indicates that\'s not going to happen this time. Say what you like about the other speeds in the race, but betting against Baffert to get a horse on the lead when he wants to seems risky.
Not to mention the fact that mud/slop now seems like a real possibility. Another incredible Derby weekend ruined with weather, been epidemic the last 20 years. The amt of rain they are predicting Fri/Sat means high probability for an aberrant turf course, likely with the dreaded dead rail. Maybe it\'s time to move the Derby to Santa Anita?
If it is sloppy, who gets the better trip, Journalism from post 8, or Sovereignty from post 18?
But Grok just became a bit more optimistic when it comes to the weather:
\"The forecast suggests a mostly sunny day with a high near 69°F and a low around 47°F. However, there’s a 30% chance of precipitation, with a slight chance of showers in the morning and possible thunderstorms after 2 p.m. EDT. Confidence in a completely dry forecast has decreased due to a slow-moving cold front, but conditions are expected to dry up by the evening, with a 20% chance of rain at night. The race, set for 6:57 p.m. ET, is likely to see clear skies or minimal rain, potentially resulting in a fast track, though earlier showers could make it slightly muddy.\"
So in the 11th race today Bobby has his first meet entries. (2)
Speed Boat Beach...no works on Track. Last work April 21st at Santa Anita. Speed Boat is coming back after a year and a half upon an atypical Bobby workout pattern and is the morning line favorite.
https://www1.drf.com/Results/WorkoutSearchResults.do?rNo=20002168
and
Fort Bragg
https://www1.drf.com/Results/WorkoutSearchResults.do?rNo=20005504
Lets see what the master trainer has schemed up!
Bobby is Back!!!
November 1st, 2024... Take a train, take a plane, take a car... to where the Surf meets the Turf at Del Mar.
The Breeder\'s Cup Juvenile is set to ensue in the 9th race there... where in an epic confrontation of modern jousting, Citizen Bull breaking from the 6 hole is poised to confront East Avenue, breaking from the 1 slot. Moments away...suddenly, fate intervenes, and Citizen Bull inherits the wind.
Saturday... comes the renewal of that promised sport. Citizen Bull, poised again to charge, breaks from that fateful 1 slot and East Avenue renews the challenge from the 12.
Lay on, MacDuff!!!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=edvmeXC_A6s
I tried to tie Macbeth and Burnham Wood (Square) in the seminar, but I couldn’t get there.
You are modest Jerry... and I think you know you just did.
Well Done
Currently my view is I don\'t think jockey Manuel Franco on East Avenue will allow that strategy. After reviewing #12\'s pedigree and good races I\'m now of the opinion that this one is perhaps the overlay of the race.
He may get caught late but at 30/1 (as of Thursday p.m.) finishing in the Tri would be a big multiplier. As of now I\'m imagine he will be the last horse the winner(s) pass.
On the other hand if Citizen Bull does go Kamikaze sub :45 1:10 then I like the pair from the land of the rising sun to win that game by getting the jump on the American one trick deep-closers.
Just imaging.
bobl49 Wrote:
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> My gut says 1 and 4 sprint to the lead, open a
> couple of lengths, then try to slow the pace down
> together and force others wide if they try to
> pass. Interested in others thoughts.
and then you said this, and my heart went \"pitter patter\":
\"Does anybody really believe that Rodriguez is hurt? He will run in PRKNS-without CB. Just Baffert not wanting his two horses to destroy each other, imo.\"
Bob... I like the way you think. I\'m gonna keep my eye on You! yes... yes...
Bob, you and I are conspiracy theorists. Or at least I am and am looking for company. The barn said the bruise is almost healed and that he\'ll be ready by the Preakness. The past performances say, Rodriguez runs his best races on the motor. Now, I don\'t know for sure whose vet scratched the horse. I\'m thinking it\'s the \"Reg-Vet\" again. But with the 1 hole, C.B.S. has to go. and Maybe they were gonna let Rodriguez be the hotfoot until the post position draw called for a \"reassessment\". What would they call that in layman\'s terms? You know where you say or do something, first stating one thing but only stating it to advance your agenda? What is that called? Yeah... he\'s a weasel alright, but that\'s not the term I was looking for.
So Bobby the Weasel now has a 100 percent win rate at the meet if I\'ve kept on top of my Mustelidae entries. (Haven\'t done it before, so don\'t take it as gospel.) Now the Weasel ran two horses in the race but there\'s only one winner per race, so my math makes him 100 percent, right? Am I mistaken? He shipped two horses from California, one of which hadn\'t run since 2023 to win one race. It was a 200k non listed race if memory serves. Say 115 K proceeds. 11.5 k to the trainer and jockey. So say 95 K to the owner of Fort Bragg. Did the weasel give the ownership of Speed Boat Captain an honorarium? If not, he should have. (Haven\'t even viewed the race yet, will shortly, but have a pretty good idea of what transpired.)
Next up for the Truth Wolverine, Tenma. I have a Oaks analysis I\'d like to contribute. Sometime tomorrow. I\'ll try to keep it brief.
Regarding the scratch of Rodriquez a legitimate reassessment of the race is necessary. It just got vastly more complex, but glad Baeza is in.
Not to mention, we are almost guaranteed mud/slop now, with over an inch of rain expected starting after sundown Friday and consistently raining all thru the day Sat.
with that much rain, have to wonder if most of the turf races will come off. And those that stay on, good luck handicapping that mess.
Am I reading the PPs correctly? Do Rodriquez and Citizen Bull have identical ownership?
Thanks.
analizethis Wrote:
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> Am I reading the PPs correctly? Do Rodriquez and
> Citizen Bull have identical ownership?
>
> Thanks.
Yep...Not sure what ever happened to the coupled runner\'s entry rules.
Grande is out. Guessing on the big pop and short foundation he was an x candidate. He and Rodriquez going out relieves some of the apprehension though. Baeza makes it very interesting.
So Repole is bitching and moaning. Ironically, Kentucky may be the most ethical and safety oriented racing jurisdiction. A lot is invested there. They don\'t need a horse dying in agony on National T.V... and who knows maybe something else is on their radar too.
... scratched (State-Vet)
Bobby the Weasel: \"jiminy crickets, what did the narcs suspect there?\"