Ask the Experts

Do you want to hit this year\'s Derby Super?  

You shouldn\'t have to work too hard at it. :)

Since the Points System started in 2013, there have been 12 Derby\'s.  

Couple of notes that may help solve the puzzle based on the Derby\'s since and including 2013.

Favorite hit the Super every time except last year (11 of 12 Derby\'s).
2nd choice hit the Super 7 of 12 times.
3rd choice hit the Super 8 of 12 times.
4th choice hit the Super 4 of 12 times.

All 12 Derby\'s 2 of the top 4 betting choices hit the Super (seeing that fact across all 12 of those races inspired this post).
5 of 12 Derby\'s 3 of the top 4 betting choices hit the Super.
3 of 12 Derby\'s 3 of the top 3 betting choices hit the Super.  
1 Derby, the top 4 betting choices hit the Super.  They hit perfectly in ordinal rank, 1-2-3-4 (Nyquist, Exaggerator, Gun Runner, Mohaymen, $1,084.20 super for $2).  Lowest Super in The Derby obviously.

So if you want to hit the Super FOR $2 (TWO DOLLARS) based on 2 of the top 4 betting choices hitting the super, here\'s the play (1, 2, 3, 4 denote 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th betting choice in the win pool):

1, 2, 3, 4 with 1, 2, 3, 4, with ALL with ALL.  $7,344.00 Ticket.
1, 2, 3, 4 with ALL with 1, 2, 3, 4 with ALL.  $7,344.00 Ticket
1, 2, 3, 4 with ALL with ALL with 1, 2, 3, 4.  $7,344.00 Ticket
ALL with 1, 2, 3, 4 with ALL with 1, 2, 3, 4.  $7,344.00 Ticket
ALL with 1, 2, 3, 4 with 1, 2, 3, 4 with ALL.  $7,344.00 Ticket
ALL with ALL with 1, 2, 3, 4 with 1, 2, 3, 4.  $7,344.00 Ticket

$44,064.00 Total Play.

12 Derby\'s played this way for $2 superfectas would have been a $528,768.00 investment.
TOTAL RETURN for HITTING ALL 12 $2 SUPERFECTAS:  $1,094.365.84.

It\'s just that easy.  
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If you can\'t afford the $44k play, you could play the more affordable top 3 choices as follows on $2 superfectas:

1, 2, 3 with 1, 2, 3 with ALL with ALL.  $3,672.00 Ticket
1, 2, 3 with ALL with 1, 2, 3 with ALL.  $3,672.00 Ticket
1, 2, 3 with ALL with ALL with 1, 2, 3.  $3,672.00 Ticket
ALL with 1, 2, 3 with 1, 2, 3 with ALL.  $3,672.00 Ticket
ALL with 1, 2, 3, with ALL with 1, 2, 3. $3,672.00 Ticket
ALL with ALL with 1, 2, 3 with 1, 2, 3.  $3,672.00 Ticket.

$22,032.00 Total Play.

12 Derby\'s played this way for $2 superfecta\'s would have been a $264,384.00 investment.

TOTAL RETURN FOR HITTING 11 (ELEVEN) of the 12 DERBY\'s (would have missed 2018 Super with this approach):  $1,055,668.84.

Last approach I\'ll map out that would have hit 3 of the 12 Derby\'s on $2 super tickets.

1, 2, 3 with 1, 2, 3 with 1, 2, 3 with ALL.  $204.00 Ticket
1, 2, 3 with 1, 2, 3 with ALL with 1, 2, 3.  $204.00 Ticket
1, 2, 3 with ALL with 1, 2, 3 with 1, 2, 3.  $204.00 Ticket
ALL with 1, 2, 3 with 1, 2, 3 with 1, 2, 3.  $204.00 Ticket

$816.00 Total Play. 

12 Derby\'s played this way for $2 superfecta\'s would have been a $9,792.00 investment.

TOTAL RETURN FOR HITTING 3 (THREE) of the 12 DERBY\'s:  $32,319.60.  ($15,383.80, $1084.20, $15,851.60)

There\'s a few other ways I could play around with this but this is a solid big picture overview of the super the past 12 Derby\'s based on ordinal rank in the win pool.  

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People are paid ridiculous amounts of money I\'m sure to write far less insightful content about racing.  Yet here I am providing it all for nothing!! Of course, if there is typo or scrivener\'s error since I don\'t have the amazing programming abilities of o_crunk or others, no warranties.  But I feel pretty good about it overall.

NOTES:  I know the super minimum is $1 but all my notes in my spreadsheet for the Derby are in $2 increments so you can happily cut it in half on all fronts if that helps you out.

In the September 2020 Derby, they ALLOWED DIME SUPERS if that matters to you.

I know my math is not \"PERFECT PERFECT\" on the ticket costs over the years b/c I calculated all of that assuming 20 horse fields every year which some years there were less than 20.  I also didn\'t add in the tickets where a 2nd or 3rd ticket may have been a winning one on a particular year so the ROI would have been more also.    

Now that we solved this puzzle, back to the day-to-day handicapping to find some more winning plays.

And the Trainer who didn’t hit the Super with the Favorite?
This year’s favorite is from that same trainers tree so to say.

Looking at the Trifecta and these top choices, I formulated this play as follows to look at a little closer since the Points Era.

1, 2, 3, 4 = Top 4 betting choices.

$1 Trifecta Plays and $1 Payoffs is how I broke it down this time.

1 with 234 with ALL, $54
1 with ALL with 234, $54
234 with 1 with ALL, $54
ALL with 1 with 234, $54
234 with ALL with 1, $54
ALL with 234 with 1, $54

Total Play with 20 horses, $324.00.
Several years there were less than 20 horses (so less cost in those years obviously than $54 per ticket)
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RESULTS, Trifecta play hit 8 out of 12 years.
Trifecta play was profitable 5 times.

2013, 3,462.80
2014, 1,712.00
2015, 202.00 for $2 (Note: would have it for full $2 as listed here)
2016, 173.40 for $2 (Note: would have it for full $2 as listed here)
2017, X
2018, 141.40
2019, X
2020, 1311.80
2021, X
2022, 14870.70
2023, 982.36
2024, X

TOTAL INVESTMENT IF PLAYED ALL 12 YEARS FOR $1:  $3888.00  (Less than this b/c less than 20 horse fields at least a few times and only 15 in 2020).

TOTAL RETURN IF PLAYED ALL 12 YEARS AS SHOWN:  $22856.46

This isn\'t the worst play for a group of Novices to take a shot and split up the cost into small pieces, but it is sheer gambling on the all button bringing in a bomb in 1 of the 3 spots to make it worthwhile.

I agree with that thought process, especially if one of your 2,3or 4 horse is a price.
Derby that comes to mind is the Always Dreaming Derby.
I keyed Irish War Cry and was all over Looking at Lee.
Tri paid approximately $8200 for $1.00

Since that Derby I have often thought of having two key horses and not hitting the all button.
This year I just may use that strategy as there are a lot of closers.
Currently looking at Rodriguez and Journalism as my keys, subject to change.

Sure is quite around these parts for the silly season.

Good Luck
John

P.S.
Is there a chance the top jock won’t have a Derby Mount?