Ok any criticism ifs fine but I actually went on this site 5 minutes to post and realized get your bets in before you engage in a long post.
The back to back 4\'s and the base he had created for himself while at Oaklawn gave me the impression he may have created base he was ready to go forward from. The positive Rider switch and the feeling maybe some of the antics were over...which they were not would provide more improvement.
Coal Battle was moving forward 3 points every race and gave the vide that was about to end. Cornucopius was a mess. That 0 was going 6 furlongs and now he had to do 9. When he got challenged he had no reaction other than to run wild. One could say he held well but whoever sent it on him knocking him to 4/5 feels like the gambler at the end of the movie the \"The Sting\". He wanted his money back too.
Sandman probably went forward to a 2. He is not gonna be a quick breaker but he looks like he can stay. He has a foundation of experience. This 3YO Crew is not exceptionally fast. Running these horses only 3, 4 or 5 times before a mile and quarter race with 150,000 screaming fans in a 20 horse field makes it a complete puzzle. Experience and maturity still counts. Sandman is a legit player
I disagree about this 3yo crop. Strong and deep, and we haven’t even gotten to the main preps next week.
It\'s def a solid crop, and that\'s not even including a couple of very talented injured horses.
Gonna guess Sandman gets better than a 2. We actually have some good comps, since the winners of the filly races at GP and Oaklawn faced each other in the Honey Bee. And Maraket Road faced Coal Battle.
Tappan Street was only marginally slower than White Abarrio, given similar weight and more ground loss. Let\'s say WA gets a 0, which is average for him and fits with a regression from Power Squeeze. So, 1 something for TS.
Sandman gets even better, given the above mentioned comps. Thinking a 0.
Probably just a knee jerk reaction but I think if Tapit was gonna get a KY Derby winner it would have already happened.
Bred by Bob Lothenbach who sadly passed away 1-2 years ago. Horse was purchased from his dispersal sale after his death.
Spent his whole life breeding horses, now has one that he bred going to the derby. Hard not to root for.
Are the derby gods going to get him home first? Hopefully Mr. Lothenbach is up there and will be giving the horse some divine support.
On another note in regards to the crop of 3 year old colts and geldings. I agree that it is a very deep crop, with very little separation among most of the top 50 colts. But has there been any really exceptionally fast figures ran by any of those outside of Journalism? Like negative 2 or faster yet. Maybe we get some next week, 4 good preps and then the Lexington.
Have we seen the derby winner in any of the preps the last couple of weeks, or is the winner running in the last round of preps?
Sandman by Tapit
Made the lead and then got lost a bit and had to be corrected.
In front of a KY Derby crowd let’s see.
Like a lot of Tapits talent is not the issue.
Publisher missed the break and ran a very solid race.
I think -2 is not common for Derby starters. Last year, Fierceness\' -3 was the only fig better than a 1, and there were only 5 horses that had better than a 3 going in.
The only recent really exceptional years I can remember are the Chrome and American Pharoah years where it seemed like half the field had a zero or better.
Nice race analysis Silver. You referred to proprietary numbers and that\'s what the proprietor wants to see. Wanted to take a shot at Corncob but got busy with life and missed the race. Looking at the numbers, last conscious thought was \"Look at Speed King\'s works post defeat... is he going to come in with intent?\" Speedy\'s two post defeat works showed intent... and but for Speed King\'s bad early step, Corncob may not have earned anything for the effort.
Personal bias enters these challenge Baffert considerations. It\'s Tony\'s belief the silver haired vet should be barred from the sport permanently. That Medina Spirit nonsense was the last straw. How many Kentucky Derby winners croak on the track after a workout in their acclaimed year?
There wasn\'t a lot in the race, but the crowd was all over that outcome.
He needs to be gone.
Re: CORNUCOPIAN
After breaking his maiden, Baffert and Ortiz were both quoted as saying he doesn\'t necessarily need to be on the lead.
Baffert: \"He really doesn\'t want to be on the lead and run like that\"
Ortiz: \"He doesn\'t want to do that. He wants to cruise and then turn it on\"
With that said, how many people were expecting Velazquez to be hell-bent on getting the lead?
Going along with the Beyer variant, I have the race looking like this:
2f: 118
4f: 115
6f: 106
9f: 99
One thing I thought interesting is that the jock on Speed King was willing to let JV have the lead - but the horse wouldn\'t let him (about :30 mark). JV may have figured (correctly) that they would try to rate, and then he\'d have control of the race. Speed King had other ideas.
This is something I\'ve noticed about Speed King, he HATES sitting behind horses. Tugged to the lead first time out and in the Springboard mile he flat out rejected being passed and tugged to the front. Then in the Rebel he was not happy sitting fourth out of the turn.
I kinda figured he was going to go; Moquett and the owner were talking nonstop about how badly they wanted that race. Didn\'t think they had the horse (popped the exacta cold actually), but I figured team Speed King had to figure they had one way and that was forward, hoping they had the bottom to run Cornucopian out of the race.
..just testing
I couldn\'t post for over a week. Contacted the admins and its now fixed.
I\'m sure you\'re all relieved