As best as I can figure out, here\'s what happened???
The 2 was favored in Pick 3\'s for $202 bucks give or take for 50 cents. The 2 scratches at the gate. The Will Pays are still showing for the other horses based on the 2 still being part of the payoffs.
The 11 is paying 800 dollars plus for the 50 cent p3 and is a clear 3rd choice in the WIN POOL with the 8 and the 9 as the top 2 choices and CLEARLY SO.
The race is run, the 11 goes off favored at 2-1 despite NEVER being the one that would go favored according to Will Pay\'s or Win Odds prior to the Scratch. The 50 cent payoff is posted for the p3 for $250.50. How did this happen.
Others can help but something like this. After the 2 scratched, some holder or Holders(?) of large P3/P4/P5 sums realized they were getting likely the 8 or the 9 as the favorite for their p3 that was with the 2. Likely the 11 was their next choice after the 2 and they didn\'t want the 8 or the 9, so they then made a LARGE enough win bet to make the 11 (their next choice for the win) the favorite so that they cash that bet as well as the p3/p4/p5 which paid to the favorite if you previously had the 2. In essence, they immediately were able to recognize this fact, make the proper win bet to protect themselves based on their \"handicapping\" and show us all the sophistication involved.
That\'s the best I got to explain what transpired there. And given it happened in minutes, I doubt it was a human mind that conquered all of the math and in\'s and out\'s to accomplish that without Computer Robotic Assistance but others can enlighten me.
I have a screenshot of the $1 WILL PAYS for the P3 as a close friend was alive to several of these. When he won I told him he had the 1600 payoff. .. .WRONG. 500 bucks is where it ended up.
Hope the folks like Byk, DRF, Paulick et al will step up and get to the bottom of this exactly. I\'m thinking of the article where the betting records of those final moments are released like we have seen at times in the past. Talk about sticking it to the little guy . . . this is who you are playing against. Wild.
Work early tomorrow, enough on this one for now but had to post.
When you have access to the tote and will pays like the caw\'s do, that was some easy pickings. Great work parsing the betting strategy out. Sounds like exactly what transpired.
Richie,
Not playing OP (So am not up to date on trainer stats, track bias etc.) but I did tune in for Sunday\'s card.
Had the TG\'s as well.
Went back and looked at the race which was a pretty meager lineup for MSW at any level.
Not sure why the #2 would have been bet as Moquett 1sters do not normally interest me. TG stats, however, do show some efforts from some Moquett firsters. ( 9 to 16 tg range for a few) So a TG in that range and the PRAT tax makes the #2 understandable.
As to the others, only the 2 you mentioned 8 and 9 had any sort of TG # that would make them competitive.
I imagine most had the 8&9 on horizontals.
The 11 had a TG 23 last year at 10-1 for a trainer that does not send many maidens. Half to Table Money who ran some fast TG\'s and is the only sibling on the dam side to race. The sire Bee Jersey has a TG profile that say offspring perform better at sprints than routes.
Considering that the balance of the field ran 18 tg and up, it would be hard to be really confident about any selection based on figs. (But that is just my opinion)
So. as to your theory. If I had the 11 in my sequence, I would NOT want him as the favorite and have my ticket diluted. (Am sure your friend \"S\" felt that way ).
If I was a CAW and had the 11 covered to some degree, I would feel the same way. In theory, if I was a CAW spreading based on probabilities (or if I was a whale\") I would have probably used the 11 proportionately in my horizontals and my \"return\" would not be impacted by the scratch of #2. What I am suggesting is that if a bettor hated the 2nd and 3rd choice ( 8 & 9) but loved the 4th choice, why make the 4th choice the favorite? Just cash your larger payoff when the 11 wins. The scratch of the #2 would not impact your return.
If, on the other hand, you had failed to include the #11 in your horizontal wagers, (say you only singled the #2 in the finale) then what you propose makes sense. But only if you (for some reason) you knew or were supremely confident the 11 was such a Cinch of a horse that \"CAN DO CAN DO\". :)
Was not watching the tote for the 12th. What were the odds on the 2 8 9 and 11 prior to the #2 scratching?
Hope all is well in the show me state.
Bob