I\'m hoping we won\'t need a Ouija Board to figure this one out.
I watched a lot of the Euro racing the past few weeks since the Arc. That day, as well as the day previous, Longchamp was quite firm and the times were the fastest I\'ve seen since June. While you can make a case that she likes firm turf, and therefore might like Lone Star, I am inclined to view her as a good \"bet against\", especially as one of the favorites.
Nearly all of the horses that ran well on Arc day or the day previous have not been able to maintain their form. I\'m looking for Ouija Board to regress.
Just one caveat. This is the guy who bet Sham against Secretariat, though in my defense that day at Churchill was my first day ever at a Thoroughbred track.
How many of them have run back since Oct. 3? HP
Thanks for asking for more detail about my observation that horses were not running back to their performances on Arc day and the day before. On both days Longchamp was very firm and quite fast. Only one winner was able to repeat, that being Westerner who won a marathon race with little real competition on either day (I think he was 1-10 and then 4-10). The only other notable performance in a return race was Walkamia, third to Alexander Goldrun and Grey Lilas on Arc day. Last Sunday she ran second in a Gr.I stake in Rome, but in truth the competition was really only of Gr. III caliber. Other than those two, just about all the others for whom I could find subsequent races for all finished worse than their previous race. This is not to say, of course, that all horses who raced that day have not done well- several who were unplaced on those days have come back to win.
As far as Ouija Board is concerned, though, I think she is really up against it as I think these data show that few horses were able to run back to their form of the first week of October. Plus she ships a long way, and is a young filly as well. Obviously anything can happen, and if she can overcome these negatives, then she is a truly great horse. But it sure won\'t be with my $$ on her. (Which could mean you might want to go to the windows now).
But for what its worth:
The following table shows horses who raced at Longchamp on Oct 2 and 3rd (Arc day), and how they fared in their subsequent race (through today, Oct 27).
Horse Finish-Oct 2+3--- Finish next out
2Oct
Ascot Dream 1st--- 5th
Filmeala 3--- 4
Percussionist 3--- 6
Viane 1--- 10
Ambrose 3--- 9
Russian Hill 2--- 4
Behkara 3--- 2
Hurricane Alan 2--- 3
Flip Flop 1--- 7
Bright Abundance 3--- 5
Buisson Fortin 3--- 15
3Oct
Anteoquia 1--- 6
Ainebe Crocus 2--- 4
Westerner 1--- 1 (Gr.I, LCP)
Le Carre 3--- 4
Walkamia 3--- 2 (Gr.I, Rome)
Yesterday 4--- ???
Ouija Board 3--- ???
Chopastair 1--- 3
Post Edited (10-28-04 08:37)
many thanks for that info, King...
You did some great research... but I don\'t understand its significance. What does it matter what horses in other races did over the course of a weekend? The only thing that matters is how horses performed who ran in the Arc. I don\'t care how 2 yos did running back or horses who run in 2 1/2 mile marathons.
She ran a hellish race in the Arc, her Timeforms are awesome and she really has very little to beat in this race. FWIW, my best bet of the day as she runs by these horses like they\'re tied to a pole (see Banks Hill).
ezgoer89,
Your best bet of the day figures to pay about even money. Most of us are looking for facts/figures that uncover horses with a little better payoff.
I\'m not bragging about it paying a certain amount and I wasn\'t posting it as a tout. I was simply refuting another post that I didn\'t feel made any sense.
There\'s also a difference between who you think has the best chance to win (regardless of odds) and who you think is the best price.
Geez.
EZGoer-
Of course it matters what other horses did- that\'s the whole basis behind generating variant-based numbers.
To tell the truth, I have actually liked this filly for a while, and won with her in the past, and was looking forward to seeing her in the BC. But what I have seen over the past few weeks is self evident- horses are not running back to the form they displayed at Longchamp. After seeing your comment, I also went back to see how many might have been 2yos- turns out only one of the winners I listed (Ascot Dream) is a 2yo. But, and I think importantly, what I do see now is that out of the six winners on those days, four were fillies and all ran out in their next race. Only Westerner, the older distance horse who did run back to his form, and one other (Chopastair), were males. More than before, I am convinced that Longchamp that day was rock hard (a couple of 7 furlong races went in under 1:20), and that many horses, particularly fillies, may have been negatively affected by it. Especially considering how fast the Arc was run , as well. Might want to take note also that Grey Lilas, who had been pointed for the BC FMT, won on Arc day and was then not entered in the BC.
Maybe Ouija Board will win, if so I will say she is a great filly for having overcome these apparent negatives. But we are all in the prognostication game- trying to see patterns and then bet accordingly. So it does matter what other horses who raced on that day have done since then. This is simply one pattern I\'ve observed here that, if it holds up, will have a major influence on the outcome of one of the BC races. I\'m happy to share this, but everyone is entitled to their own opinion. I\'m out on a limb here too, but all things considered, I simply think she\'s up against it in this race, and especially as a favorite will be a good \"bet against\".
FYI, I\'ve only found two horses from the Arc race who have raced since then. Pride, who I think finished 13th, came back and won a Gr.III race, and Imperial Dancer returned to finish 3rd (dq to 5th) in a GrI race in Italy, which was won by Shirrocco (who interestingly had scratched out of the Arc because his trainer felt the track was too hard).
Post Edited (10-28-04 06:15)
Thanks, Kingfisher, for answering. I think Yesterday is interesting, for various reasons, and I\'m hoping she goes off longer than the 6/1 ML. HP
I did find one more (Hurricane Alan), which I have just added, though I don\'t think it changes the conclusion.
Re: Yesterday:
She was 4th on Arc day in her last at Longchamp, though as noted Walkamia, who was 3rd in that race, ran back to be 2nd in Italy, though the competition was clearly not Gr.1 level. In Yesterday\'s defense, it was only her 2nd outing, closed well, and had some traffic problems. I am puzzled though as to why she won\'t be using Lasix and Bute, which she used in last year\'s BC.
The Euro / lasix angle will be interesting in the Mile.
I must have mis-read the Lonestar entry sheet. The DRF entry sheet shows Yesterday getting Lasix and blinkers. Also Ouija Board gets Lasix.
The entry sheet that I have shows neither getting L. I wonder which is correct.
Kingfisher\'s is correct. Both FTL. HP