Pretty much took a beating yesterday at the races and with the Hurricanes going down. Gave 80% back of what I won Friday which was an unexpected great day. Nothing worked yesterday Pretty Ana won but I didn\'t bet her. Passed on the Golden Rod and put $10 in the Jockey Club. More on that later.
Figured the Seabiscuit went thru Mandella, D\'Amato and Glatt. But Glatt, after a 14 month layoff had run a 4 point top then a 2 point down to 4. Compare that to Brown who had run no better 7 or a 6. And was like 7/5. But I shifted away from Glatt thinking others looked as good and he might go backward. I bet big om Carsons Run and got hammered.
So why was I passing races at CD? I bet McPeeks runner in the 5th pretty good. Figured I knew something....which I didn\'t. But after I witnessed Brad Cox have a 2YO run !:20:77 and the Track Record is 1:20:50. I kinda shut it down. THIS IS A JOKE RACING!!!! This guy will have a 50% win percentage at Fairgrounds. When this goes on people dont bet more, they bet less. You think I\'m that F-ING STUPID?
Gulfstream Winter Meet cranks up. Pletcher has always been a force. But I suspect now even more. No nemesis Chad Brown to deal with in dirt maidens like maybe at Saratoga or NY in the Fall. Cox has his own underworld operation going on at FG and Oaklawn. Pletcher has seen his Win Percentage drop from 24%-25% to 18%. He has good horses. He has I\'m sure an Army of $400,000-$500,000 of horses for people like Repole that need to hit the track and win. Think more late starting Mindframes, Speak Easy and on and on. I\'m not sure who his #1 Derby horse is and when was the last time he didnt have any? I\'m going to enjoy the good weather and the Meet. Hope I see some of the crew down here
Don’t forget Saffie Joseph. Today is 12/5 and he’s killing me. It’s at the point where you need to pass the race if you don’t like his horse. With about 3 mins to post Ragtap Girl is 3/5 and looks very common and not worth the favoritism. I’m not following my advice and going with Shiloh in the 10th.
Things are beginning to pick here in the Tropics. Decent Day of Racing at GP with a Christmas Feast of Gambling opportunities next weekend at GP and FG and the College football Playoffs
There are two \"inquiring minds want to know\" maiden races tomorrow and Mr Todd Pletcher is in both of them. Dude can train a horse. All anyone needed to have done was watch his work last Saturday on Cigar Mile Day where TWO comebackers ran GIANT in Stakes. Tizzy and Locked.
In the 7th Mr Pletcher teams with Irad on a firster who breezed twice from the gate at PBD on Nov 29th and Dec 6th. And then again with Irad in the 9th on another firster who also breezed twice from the gate on Nov 29th and Dec 6th. Wait a minute two gate works on the same day at the same distance. You thinkin what I\'m thinkin? Both drew outside. Figure to get that Classic Pletcher at GP lay 2nd and stalk galloping trip and are by win early Sires.
One twist is Brad \"Bugsy\" Cox is launching a Turf War with the 1 in the 9th. His Win Percentage this year is 27%. I can only image the last 90 days. Risk Factor with Casse is NOT going off at 15-1. Also coming in off TWO Gate Works and by a win early sire. Several others in here with good Trainers and every reason to POP.
In the Tropical Park Derby its a last chance for 3YO\'s and Shug teams with Irad for West Point on Cugino which means he will be hammered at the windows. Except that string of 8\'s means he isnt any faster than like half the field. And two of them are much faster (Weaver off of sprints) and Echo Lane should he draw is a little faster. He is also in the 13 hole and the 5 wins were on Lasix. He isnt getting Lasix tomorrow. Cugino has two siblings who were solid on grass. Battle of Normandy who went from an 8 as 3YO to a 3 as a 4YO. Veronica Greene not to be confused with Mo Greene....lets not ruffle Bugsy, was also pretty good. It feels like now or never time for Cugino particularly with the last breeze. But at odds on? Lynch to his inside will be twice the price, is drilling bullets, has proven he can go with Cugino and maybe that freshening help him grow up. Sire Index who I think Lynch trained, is slooooow! But most are babies. Watch the Tote......
This weekend looks better than the previous ones as I have been disappointed with offerings so far. Last weekend, their \"Championship Meet\" featured 31 thoroughbred races and 1 Arabaian stakes race that featured just a handful of dirt races, about 10 turf races and the rest of the card (15 out of 31 races) were synthetic. And almost half of those featured claiming levels less than $20,000. The Championship has not featured too many \"Champions\" yet as far as I can tell. This weekend does look much more promising.
Also a reminder for those that use the TG Byk PP\'s - they have the Springboard Mile at Remington Park tonight (Race 12 Friday at RP) and then the Tropical Park Oaks (Race 8 at GP on Saturday).
Yes the Byk #\'s are helpful. Saffie JOseph is the fastest of the bunch. But bounced hard last time ran a 7. However is the loan speed so is it a here we go again.
Somebody pounded that Jack Sisterson runner early. The price is square now
For the record I bet Pletcher last race but it was small. When the female broadcaster said there was NOT a clean lead change in the last work I became cautious. Non lead changes cause me to run.
Post Race-no I did not have it. That was a good price and ride by Irad. His runners price benefited by the late hammer on Saffie. Fast race
Some small fields at Fairgrounds which means prices are probably not going to be generous.
Track Phantom never ran real fast last meet as young 3YO but he won some races and made a little money. Had a decent layoff, returned getting FTL. Got a good number and get Lasix again. Son of Quality Road figures to improve but at a Grade 1 or 2 level he absolutely needs to. Mad Hatter has Saudi Crown who ran 14-0-35. Reportedly had some training issues before BC and ran like it. That 0 was generous and they came that day in 26:3. Nothing in that race came back to do anything.
Golden Gamble won easy last time out and got a good number. But only shows one slow breeze in 4 weeks. Mad Hatter has been pushing the training for this and for a runner who goes wide might catch a break with a small field that has very little speed. Look we are talking about a guy who had a 2YO run TEN LENGTHS faster than what Track Phantom just ran. Anything goes here
Tumbarumba in the Harlans Holiday looks strong on numbers in this field but can you bet confidently on a horse who has run 2nd 4 times in last 5 races? And may be at distance a tad further than he likes? I can\'t. The only one who has run 2nd more than Tumbarumba is Bobby Dibona. 6 in 13 starters. Steal Sunshine is 2nd fastest. Likes GP but is 0-5 at the distance. Saffie lures Irad so anything goes. Even though Tuscan Sky is slower than the others. Remember TP is 26% at GP and 26% with JV. Both in over 3,500 starters. Gets a couple of lbs is training lights out for this and can be couragious on the rail and in a fight. 5-2 or 3-1 is worth the risk against salty bunch
Major Dude is not going to be that 5-1 ML. Those last 3 good races off the Layoff were with Lasix. Not happening tomorrow. But he is training up a storm and pulls weight. Win for the Money is consistent and is fastest. Is 2 ofr 2 on this turf course with a DQ. Training like he is ready. Grand Sonata hasnt run that fast but has gotten rich doing it. Spots weight but can navigate an inside trip and if he jumped up this 5YO would not shock
The Janus is interesting and provides value. Arzak has been a little erratic this year. And if he wins at short price and you had him good for you. There is decent amount of speed in here and its all on the outside. Brad \"Mad Hatter\" Cox has two in here and is 37% 1st after the Trainer change. And 37% Blinkers Off. Figure that one out. Anyone who saw Knicks Go and Caravel running World Records after the barn change knows anything goes here. There is a Sleeper in here who will be a good price. Ran a nice number last out. Returned from an extended layoff a New Horse. He was gelded. He is on all my tickets.
I close out a Teaser with Penn State minus 2.5. Let the action begin
The odds swings or how people see the PP\'s and wager is becoming half the battle. Fan Duel puts lines out there to Bet Games once the game has started. Is horse racing actually doing this for a Select few? I\'m just kidding but not really.
Tuscan Sky goes off at like 4/5? Get real.The bet was Tumbarumba to Place. Kidding...maybe!! Golden Gamble with only one breeze in 4 weeks that was in like 1:05 was 3/5 and TVG announcers bring up \"another Thorpedo Anna\". Major Dude paid what $6.60? He was never going to be 5-1.
Roman\'s horse Coppola was 7-1 on the load and 7/2 half way around the turn. The Sleeper I mentioned was the 1. He was 12-1 ML and was down to 5-1 on the Load. I made a small win jet anyway but also boxed an exacta. Won\'t say what because it would be a redboard but how did I notice the Roman\'s odds shift. Just saying
Saudi Crown was 1-9 then 1-5 while Track Phantom was 9-1 then 5-1. Crown wins and pays $4.20 and Phantom was 5/2.
Thanks to Kevin Jennings and SMU that was easy money while multi tasking with horses. It was a good day. Looked at Santa Anita PP\'s last evening and that Card looks tough. Merry Christmas everyone
I get the idea you are trying these nicknames on for size to see if one sticks. In the manner of throwing spaghetti against the wall, lol.
I like Bugsy, but as Elliott Gould (Harry Greenberg) remarked, not to his face.
Twenty dwarves took turns doing handstands on the carpet.
Merry Christmas everyone.
Gary, lay off the mushrooms.
Thanks for the Merry Christmas wishes. Actually, I think they all apply, but if I had to pick a favorite it would be \"Mad Hatter\" because he once Teamed with Louis “Lepke†Buchalter to run Murder Inc. And if the goal is to obliterate everyone else and kill the game, including the Players, well job well done so far.
But I also want to be clear I have no actual evidence or proof of wrongdoing. As Hyman Roth said, \"I am a retired investor and a pensioner\"....And so that was the end of that racing officials said.
Tomorrow at Santa Anita there are 3 Grades One\'s and 3 Grades Two\'s. That is about as good as it gets these days. Machine Gun ships in with one in the Malibu who only has two career starts but went 1:08:4 and 1:15:2 and got good competitive numbers. He is 32% with Pratt and running at a clip of 32% Tops the last 90 days. keep in mind the Track record is 1:19:3 I believe held Spectacular Bid. Don\'t laugh. Bentornato figures to bounce so it gets pretty wide open after that. This race will be a pass and you know the reason why.
I try and learn from my mistakes and when I previously analyzed and posted about the Seabiscuit on November 30th I mentioned Glatt with Mi Hermano Ramon along with D\'Amato and Mandella as the race going through them. When it came time to pull the trigger I passed on Glatts horse figuring he could not squeeze his 3rd consecutive Top out of him 3rd off the layoff off the 14 month setback. Sure enough he did and he needed it. The Lesson \"If you get 10-1 to find out its worth the risk\". Johannes should trounce this field. Pass
Now the Mathis Mile is where things get interesting. King of Gosford is 6/5 which seems a tad short but he looks really solid. 1st, 2nd (King of Gosford) and 4th in the Hollywood Derby ran in a line on the rail and 1st jump tipped out and got the win and 2nd jump tipped out and got 2nd and the next rode the rail and was 4th. Fourth place beaten a length was Stay Hot. Stay Hot looks like he is cycling back to an improved figure which he will need to beat King. They both might better suited at this distance. Three of Kings 4 wins this year were down the hill. But he has stretched out nicely and reunites with Pratt. Peter Eurton tabs JJ Hernandez for Stay Hot who is a 32% Jock for him. There is hardly any speed in this race. Pratt figures to have a garden spot trip. But I cant recommend 6 or 7 to 5. Being hard headed take the better price. You dont want to be betting favorites all day here now do you....
Silver,
You make mention of the fact that a certain race is a pass and you know the reason why. Most races today are not worth betting often due to field size or lack of depth within the field if it is of significant field size.
For different reasons, one race that is not a race I would bet today is the La Brea. Baffert has four entrants. Their record while in Baffert\'s care is a combined 13-11-2-0 with the 2 losses being to other Baffert fillies. Baffert defenders say he gets the best horses. A glimpse into that idea and it being not quite true is that Hope Road was 3-0-2-0 under John Sadler\'s care and now she has won 4 races by a combined 16 lengths under Bob\'s care.
Now, this alone does not make the race not worth betting but for me it is a pass. I\'m not interested in trying to figure out which other other Bob or which other other other Chad is going to win on these big days. I made a commitment to avoid super trainer races with multiple horses and I\'ve been sticking to it. These big days are no longer getting my horizontal dollars usually.
At Fair Grounds, Elliot Walden might hold some info that would be helpful. It is a firster filled 2yo event. Race 8 is a MSW $58k event with all 11 horses being treated with Lasix. Will Walden trains the 1 who was bred by WinStar but is owned by Cypress Creek Equine. Asmussen trains the 8, a homebred for Cypress Creek Equine. And Silver\'s good pal Brad trains the 10, a firster owned by WinStar Farm, China Horse Club Inc and Siena Farms. This one has been firing bullets at WinStar and then at Payson. Most recently a work at FG for Brad but was this one with Todd down in Florida? Or someone else who would be at Payson b/c I don\'t think Brad has a string there? Is the horse here b/c of Lasix? I think this one goes favored despite the ml suggesting otherwise. This race is also a pass for me but I will watch keenly to see how the wagering goes and how the race unfolds. I won\'t be surprised if and when Silver\'s \"Bugsy\" wins this one.
Race 9 at FG is an interesting one and if you want to see how Lasix on or off matters in different ways for different horses, take a look at this field. I will be wagering here. But I\'ll leave it at that and let you do your own handicapping on an ok race to bet.
The game is very, very different these days and as stated, most races are not worth pushing money into the pools.
Last, on Xmas eve, Tampa handled over $6 million. The prior week their weekdays handled around $3 million. THe brilliant minds of horse racing let the NFL and NBA make all that holiday money. I mean why would they possibly want to have huge handle on days when guys would definitely want to push their money into the pools. Racing keeps failing despite those of us that wish it would thrive.
Tis the Season!
Re: Malibu Stakes
I don\'t see any value coming from the top two off the ML. I landed on STRONGHOLD. He has a competitive top, the pattern looks strong and he should be double the price of the two favorites. I hope to get at least 5/1.
Re: Pincay Stakes
Either the ML is way off, or I\'m way off. KATONAH looks like a $4 horse to me. I settled on 7/5 as a fair price.
LAMMAS could be interesting. He\'s doing his best racing as a 7yo. I think he\'s worth around 3/1 coming off the bounce.
Enjoy the racing today, fellas.
Thanks for the data, Jerry.
Prist I looked at your Katonah this morning on the replay and Detorri had to have some worn out arms after that BC Mile. He had to ride him hard the whole way but he did finish with some interest and has solid numbers compared to the rest of the field so he is play for me.
Fairmont I avoid twice as many races as I bet. Maybe three times. Supertrainers. Small fields. Cheap horses. If they want my wagering dollars give me a product I can Bet. Or I wont
Machine Gun is a scratch in the Malibu but the problem is the bounce horse who was the 1 and he was gonna take money he is also scratched. Imagination was NEVER going to be 12-1 and now he wont be even close now. His line is improving. Raging Torrent probably throw out that BC Sprint non effort. He has beaten some really good horses including The Chosen Vron. Training well and oddly given a gate work so they may gun.
Machine Gun just won by 10 at FG in a race taken off the turf at 3/5. TOTALLY washed out. ABSOLUTELY ZERO chance I would bet this race.
Lepke \"Louis\" Buchalter got sent to Sing Sing and put in the Chair. In racing these guys get sent to Union Avenue and put in the Hall of Fame.......
The \"other\" O\'Neill . . .
A one-time, MdnClm20k winner for Purple Rein and O\'Neill.
Brutal. I have no clue.
Fairmont its only fitting he won that FG Maiden race you referenced with a horse named Gunmetal. There was zero chance in my mind from the top of the stretch he would lose. 1:09:4 is about the norm and the Win Percentage at FG is now 29% after a cold start. Its 57% with Flourent. I didn\'t bet the race.
Prist it happens. He just simply didnt fire. I value opinions even if they dont work out the price was not good so I starting trying Exactas with some speed horses. The 3 was not one of them.
Mystik Dan is up here but the price seems really short. Kenny sent me a photo of him a couple of months ago. Proud of the way he was looking as he began his comeback. But these connections are Arkansas people and I know they would love to be bagging Big Races there this meet. I think this is a Prep only.
Why did the guys across the Street think Johannes was vulnerable? Good Lord.
Would like to say thank you to whomever hammered Imagination from 9-1 to 4-1 in the last blink or two. Raging Torrent went from 9-5 to 5/2 as they broke. I thought he was dead turning for home. This FLIPPED my entire day. Otherwise I might have needed the gas chamber.....
It is probably the mushrooms, but I thought I saw Dan \"short stepping\" in the post parade. That is where the rear hooves don\'t reach to where the front hooves vacated.
Yeah, I watched those Joe Takach videos back in the day on my VCR, lol.
I\'m sure this was just a prep, but something to look for next time.
You’re assuming there’s a next time.
What a fun day out at Santa Anita today. I know everyone here gets a hard on for Saratoga, but Santa Anita is still a gem and on big days as good as it gets
A brisk low 60\'s December afternoon, clear skies, the San Gabriel mountains as always in the background
For a day at least no bitching about field size. 40+ thousand in attendance, large handle.
Hit the early P5 for 883, I thought that was quite a bit considering 3 favs and 2 others in the 5/1 range.
R3 played Preem at 8/1 a no threat 3rd even tho Slick looked like the winner on paper
Race 4 Barbera was my best bet and paid a nice 11.20
Didn\'t think the 3 big stakes favs were losing, but did play Lord Bullington at 12/1 a no threat 4th.
Kopion killed my horizontals. I played Sugar Fish, who missed the break and somehow still ran 3rd.
Played Stronghold, tiny profit with the saver exacta with Raging Torrent
Gave some back after the early P5.
Enjoyed talking with the folks in the adjacent box, younger guys with their girlfriends having a great time.
I\'m sure many days will have short fields and small crowds, but that\'s for another day.
JB thx for the annual gift.
Glad it was a good time and glad you also won a little to remember it. It was a feel good day for me watching and playing from home. So much history there let\'s hope somebody comes up with some kind of legislation or solutions to get things turned around.
I have to say that when I was at DelMar Labor Day Weekend the whole experience was outstanding. 110% certain I\'m going back next year and instead of site seeing the City on Sunday it will be spent right back at the Track. I went on Monday afternoon, late but it wasn\'t the same Card. There was an impressive list of runners who ran that weekend.
Most impressive was all of the quality people I met. A young Lady who works or worked at Santa Anita came down and joined me and she had licensed access to everywhere and knew everybody. So many friendly nice people I don\'t know where to begin.
Look there are many talented Trainers out there starting wirh Baffert, ONeil, DAmato, Glatt, Eurton, Gaines, Yakteen and who ever else I left out. The Jockeys are improving and if Johnny V stays Pratt does Winter it\'s a solid bunch.
For one day as the Stars came out all the problems went away. I\'m a glass half full kinda person. The glory days can return.
Proof exists I haven\'t followed the early part of the Gulfstream so-called \"Championship Meet.\" Brad Cox with 4 starters so far and some of them working at Payson Park despite my assertions in a prior post that Gunmetal must have been sent from a Fla barn to Brad at FG. Wrong.
In race 5 tomorrow (Saturday), #7 Tappan Street starts for Cox, WinStar, China Horse Club and Siena Farms. This one was a cool million dollar purchase. Several works match up with Gunmetal although some of the works are slower and at different distances dating back to Wsr works. Nonetheless the horse appears to have a bit of talent. Todd sends out the 4 horse Abundance who is owned by the same folks. This one is a homebred.
________________
At Oaklawn Park, Mystik Dan appears to have been workmates with Lat Long in the finale in a recent FG 59 4/5 bullet. While Dan was last and was one of the greatest bet against horses in some time finishing last yesterday, he did bring out a certain percentage of the crowd at Santa Anita as the Kentucky Derby winner. White Abbario is a BC Classic winner entered at Gulfstream tomorrow and continues to race which isn\'t seen often and deserves a tip of the cap. It is important for garnering fans and future gamblers that the stars not get shipped off to stud after 3 to 6 races only to be shipped to Turkey or South America or even worse Oklahoma (haha) to be stallions just a few years later.
Back to Lat Long, he has a wide post but I\'ll give him a long look along with Cox\'s new acquisition Bedard for use in the win spot.
Good Luck.
I saw this movie last night starring John Travolta and it is an entertaining 1 hour and 40 minutes. As one regular citizen said \"he never did nothin wrong to nobody except his own kinda people\". So with that thinking if you\'re a Rival Trainer or a Horse Playing you\'re fair game.
Fairmont you always know what you are talking about so I figured it was a Cox horse training at say Palm Beach downs when he is stabled at Palm Meadows. Or Gulfstream. Or Payson. He ran two last week 1st off the barn change in the Janus at 5F. His other two starters were 2nds one to Pletcher in a Maiden that was ok. Number came back a 9. The guy is 28% at FG and 64% in the money. Put that in your Trifecta.
At Gulfstream today we have in the 1st Tutta La Vita listed at 5/2 and was placed in Grade 2 company in Australia. Now I dont know who does TG \"Live ground\" over there, perhaps a retired Crockadile Dundee but if those figs are right she looks so strong here I would not be shocked if we see a crazy 6/5. Picks up Irad. This is a find or a fraud.
In the 5th Capture the Flag has an inside post and is as fast, as several others are, as Unit Economics who drew wide. Unit Economics doesnt have to win just because its Chad Brown.
The 7th race is Maiden race at a route and oddly there are only 7 horses entered. Pletcher is the ML favorite with a $700,000 son of Constitution that has nothing in its dam side pedigree that would suggest he is fast. But 3 out of the last 4 works were from the gate. He will be leaving with a purpose. If the Blinkers work, a low percentage change for good guy Ian Wilkes, he runs them down and wins. He too has a nice gate work.
In the 8th Twirling Queen looks very strong at 5 for 5 on Turf or Synthetic. But its been a long year albeit only 6 starts shipping around all over the Country. This is the last chance against 3 year olds and running for a modest $115K. Bob Edwards of e Five has the 1 with Saffie Joseph. If Bob got side swiped off the rode and rolled over in a ditch he would crawl out and find a duffell bag there with $5,000,000 in it. Dude is good but also lucky. A solid family man who really loves racing. He would not shock here.
The 9th is a Handicap on synthetic and Fly the W has run a 4 fourteen times in his career. Exact Estimate never once. Did run a 3 once on turf. There might be 8 horse within a length at the wire here. Jerry the Nipper has never been on synthetic but today they find out. Mike Maker sneaks in here with horse 3rd of the long layoff and is fastest. His win percentage on synthetic (22%) is better than it is on turf. He teamed up with Zayas 2 Saturdays ago for a good priced winner and can do it again here. In a race that is wide open and the value is beating Brown.
Good Luck everyone