does anybody know if the Oaks-Derby prices are listed on any of the sites... i can\'t find them anywhere.
Michael D. wrote:
>
> does anybody know if the Oaks-Derby prices are listed on any
> of the sites... i can\'t find them anywhere.
TG--Here. http://www.drf.com/news/article/37010.html
thanks a lot... hard to believe that Saarland is the BIG favorite, Perfect Drift is the clear second choice, and Castle is right there close to third. I though I was looking at huge payoffs with these horses. Looks to me like the Thorograph figures are starting to have an impact on the odds we get in the major races......
Michael, you aren\'t serious, are you?
Saarland and Perfect Drift are the only hyped horses this year. Somehow I don\'t think the TG numbers had anything to do with Castle either, however I\'m willing to listen to arguments to the contrary.
Now, everyone go out and win lots of cash tomorrow!!
Thorograph numbers have clearly picked out Perfect Drift as a strong Derby contender since early spring. Neither rags or Beyer can say the same. Thorograph was clearly ahead of the rest when spotting this horses potential. Also, Thorograph has been right on with Saarland (as has Rags, with small differences), while Beyer and other speed figures would not have him as a top choice.
The Thorograph numbers also pointed out some weaknesses after Harlan\'s Holiday\'s and Came Home\'s wins, even when the public still had those two as the favorites. Clearly the sheets handicappers (I will include both Thorograph and Rags) have had an impact on the odds of derby 2002. I think more so than any derby so far. I am not assuming they are correct, just that the public seems to be paying more attention than ever before.
Well Michael, you didn\'t include the Rags in your previous statement. But even if you meant to, surely you have noticed that Saarland is THE hyped horse of choice this year and Perfect Drift is the runner-up? If you haven\'t noticed, then your comment made sense.
Not sure what you mean by TG pointing out Perfect Drift as a Derby contender early this Spring while others did not? I didn\'t know that they put out such a list of contenders. Just to bring you up to speed, Ragozin had PD with a 7 in his debut at two. He equaled that in his first race this year - a very explosive pattern, which culminated in a three last race. I like him tomorrow. Unless his odds are too low he\'ll get some play from me.
Your comment that the TG figures were affecting the odds of the KY Derby did give me a chuckle though.
Good luck tomorrow.
Jim,
I agree that Saarland has been hyped and you could see that coming (as much as I wanted to deny it) but PD is a bit of surprise to me. I have not heard his hype. In fact, all I was hearing were knocks on him outside this board (or the Kentucky locals).
- Only raced at Turfway against weak competition.
- Azillion ran up the track in the Blue Grass
- Six week break before the Derby
- Skipped all the major preps
- No-name trainer without much Derby experience.
- Only one triple-digit Beyer
- Not training at Churchill
- Gelding
- Lightly raced
That was what I was reading and hearing. I must have missed all the hype.
What is driving his odds if not the sheets (TG and/or Rags)? I just don\'t see the other drivers of the hype out there. I have been following the Derby closely for almost 30 years and this is not the type of horse that typically gets bet down. Saarland is but PD is not.
I am still hoping that this was just the local Kentucky pre-Derby-party money on the local horse and that PD\'s odds will climb when the real money starts flowing in tomorrow.
I would like to know the source of the PD hype or the reasons why you think the horse is getting bet down because I sure can\'t figure it out.
Chris
I would totally disagree with most of this. Do you really believe the current odds (Sat. AM) reflect the fig guys? The heavy hitters who buy this stuff have not bet A DIME yet (relative to what they will bet).
I agree with your points on Perfect Drift.
As for Saarland, how you can say anyone is \'right on\' about anything? TG has him slower than a few in here and he hasn\'t won a thing. At this point, he\'s a horse with a sound pattern and the potential to win the race, like about six others, and he could be out of the money running a good race too wide. If he ends up the favorite, there are other factors besides the figs (mostly that he does look like he\'s on the upswing, his daddy won, his connections are heavies and he\'s a dual qualifier).
Harlan\'s Holiday is not getting respect at the windows because his Beyers aren\'t that good. On Came Home, the Beyers decline as the distance stretches too. This has more to do with what\'s going on now than anything from this quarter.
I don\'t think the figs guys have had any more impact this year than any of the last few. And wait and see how the pools turn out. Should be an interesting day. HP
you must watch the entire spiral race, 4x4 wide , moved inside ,nowhere to go , moved outside, then a fupeg to the wire
ed dixon
Chris,
From what I have read on all the news sites, Perfect Drift has been the horse people have been most impressed with in the mornings on the track. That\'s the hype I have read. Granted, it\'s nothing like Saarland - he\'s the media pick for sure.
Right now Saarland is 5-1 and Harlan\'s Holiday is 7-1.
Not to mention, Perfect Drift was picked by Randy Moss, Jay Privman, and Finley.