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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: Silver Charm on October 25, 2024, 06:31:41 PM

Title: Bryan Station
Post by: Silver Charm on October 25, 2024, 06:31:41 PM
A $600,000 Turf Race with no Chad Brown or Irad or Pratt. Must have other things to do.

Lets be clear on #\'s the Favorite is a stickout. Jumped up at Colonial and Paired up at Del Mar. However this campaign has been 8 races pretty much this year. Shipped west, now back and coming from Fair Hill. Has made $1.3M for a $27,500 purchase. And has coerced Manny Franco to take a day off from New York to come in a ride. Like there was no one else capable around? I\'m banking its one race too many and a small regression is coming giving the opportunity to win on a better price.

The 3, 5, 8 figure to be or setting the pace. Chalk will not be that far behind from a wide post. Behind that will be Neat and Brilliant Bertie. Neat won over the course earlier in the year and is 6 for 9 on grass. He could be ready for a small forward move. Which should be enough to get him a piece

Brilliant Bertie is 4-4 in Kentucky and is out a dam who ran a 0 on turf as a 3YO. Yes you read that right. She is two points slower than the favorite but gets 1 point in weight. I forgive the 1 pt backward move in the last because that is a crazy turf course and trip. The horse won driving and was leading at the 7 furlong 8th pole.  Had a break thru fig in late June and now has 4 months since and 7 weeks rest with 4 solid works just down the road at home base CD to pop another one. Mrs DeVaux after a quiet August and Sept is having a solid meet. If the 7-2 holds this could be a good thing.
Title: Re: Bryan Station
Post by: prist on October 26, 2024, 09:19:54 AM
You picked a doozy of a race to handicap. Any number of these horses can win and I wouldn\'t be surprised. I\'m sure the Indiana-Bred will win just to stick it to me. Sticking it!

https://youtu.be/-oUJdF-BDrQ?si=IYHJDdJjW8EYME4L

I\'m gonna have to go along with my friend from Sabaneta. I like NEAT. His last three races are solid. I\'m projecting a new top.
Title: Re: Bryan Station
Post by: P-Dub on October 26, 2024, 02:09:31 PM
#2 Neat a very nice forging pattern and can absolutely move forward and contend

#4 My Boy Prince just ran a fast one with the favorite the only one with a better race. He wasn\'t visually impressive, but I\'ll trust the number.

#6 Brilliant Berti a contender but doubt she offers a decent price. Underlay at the ML

#11 Trikari the obvious horse

I\'ll key My Boy Prince and also a win bet
Title: Re: Bryan Station
Post by: prist on October 26, 2024, 03:26:24 PM
Nice job, Silver Charm. I look forward to more of your handicapping in the future.
Title: Re: Bryan Station
Post by: P-Dub on October 26, 2024, 03:51:38 PM
Nice call

I passed after the 4 was bet down to 5/1
Title: Re: Bryan Station
Post by: albatross on October 26, 2024, 04:40:05 PM
Very Nicely done.
Title: Re: Bryan Station
Post by: Silver Charm on October 26, 2024, 07:57:33 PM
Thanks everyone. When it all works you look pretty smart. But it\'s a humbling game  .

In the game of woulda coulda I made out pretty well on the race. Over the last week a friend of mine and I have been following McPeek who was 1-28. I bet him about 3 or 4 times (small wagers) to no avail and even bet him in the earlier grass race where his runner ran fine just faded to 4th. The logic is that the wins are coming and when he starts popping they are in bunches. While I was texting away and counting my winnings I blew off the last race at Kee. He piled in at 15-1 and the late double paid almost $300 for $2. A parlay would have been like $150.

He has 6 in tomorrow at CD. All Maidens, 2YO\'s, 5 on dirt one on grass. I have ZERO inside info. He could go 0-6 or win 3 or 4. He has some good new horses coming. Keep the periscope up.....
Title: Re: Bryan Station
Post by: jerry on October 27, 2024, 09:28:09 AM
An entire card of 2yos. I’m curious to see what the handle is like.