Ask the Experts

General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: Fairmount1 on September 28, 2024, 06:15:58 PM

Title: Appleby
Post by: Fairmount1 on September 28, 2024, 06:15:58 PM
In some off the board email and text strings, some folks have asked and/or commented about how the Appleby barn has been doing this year (not as successful was the guess).

Past 4 years overall:  126 starts, 41 wins, 33%

2021:  23 starts, 11 wins, 47.8%

2022:  22 starts, 8 wins, 36.3%

2023:  30 starts, 8 wins, 26.6%

2024:  51 starts, 14 wins, 27.4%

He is 2 for his past 14 including August 11th.

When Jerry does the BC seminar, I\'d really like to know how his horses are running figure wise this year in comparison if possible (assuming he has some BC entries).

_________________

Breeders Cup Record since 2021:

2021:  4 starts, 3 wins

2022:  7 starts, 3 wins

2023:  3 starts, 1 win

2024:  TBD
Title: Re: Appleby
Post by: BitPlayer on September 29, 2024, 05:23:24 AM
One thing I\'ve been wondering about is whether Appleby\'s results are partly the result of having a string the US this year, rather than training all his horses in Europe and shipping in for American races.
Title: Re: Appleby
Post by: Silver Charm on September 29, 2024, 06:24:16 AM
Well done. A couple of things here. If you back out the last 2 for 14 stretch he was 32.5%. Putting him in the middle of the 2022 and 2023 years. Also his overall Runner #\'s are double what they were in 2021.

Which leads me to my bigger point. He said they had made a decision to run a string of horses here year round. Ones they felt were more suitable for American Racing as opposed to (me talking here) Goodwood, Newmarket, Chantilly, Ascot etc.....

When he was 46% those runners were coming from those Tracks and swarming our Grade Ones. Now a lot of these Runners he moved here run in the Dubai Winter Circuits and frankly I don\'t think those races are any good. (Not World Cup Day). He has run horses like Silver Knott 3 times as an uncoupled entry (both can\'t win) and horses like Ottoman Fleet are nice Grade 2 or 3 types but not kind he was bringing from those aforementioned European Tracks and running over the Top of Grade One fields here.  

I\'m glad he is here with extra horses for our circuits. I\'m not glad he has been taking so much of my money in his recent 2 for 14 or with Silver Knott dating all the way back to my Breeders Cup late double with Forte when he lost the Juvy Turf by a nose.
Title: Re: Appleby
Post by: Silver Charm on September 29, 2024, 06:25:30 AM
Well said. Sorry I missed this post. And many of the US String spent winter in Dubai. Not all of them but several
Title: Re: Appleby
Post by: Fairmount1 on September 29, 2024, 08:43:17 AM
Prior to 2024, his Woodbine runners (all grade 1 races) did pretty well.  9 starts, 7 wins 1 place 1 show.

This year on the WO big card, he went 3-0-1-0 at odds of .55, .80, and 1.05.

People have continued to bet him like he is automatic like in 2021 but that is no longer the case.  

Master of the Seas last work was July 26th it appears?  Guessing something went wrong there?
Title: Re: Appleby
Post by: jerry on September 29, 2024, 09:10:22 AM
Exactly. He was an automatic use. He’s human now. It’s actually a better betting proposition now because his horses take a lot of money and they’re beatable. He’s added value to the pools.
Title: Re: Appleby
Post by: Grover on October 01, 2024, 08:29:05 PM
According to Horse Racing Nation, \"Master of he Seas was scratched from Saturday\'s (8/11) Grade 1 Fourstardave Handicap at Saratoga because of a foot bruise.

Chris Connett, assistant to trainer Charlie Appleby, told Daily Racing Form that if the 5-year-old gelding recovers quickly enough, he could train up to the Sept. 14 Woodbine Mile (G1).\"

He was a no show at WO, and Naval Power ran 4th at even money.
Title: Re: Appleby
Post by: Fairmount1 on October 13, 2024, 07:18:57 PM
Appleby 1 for his last 15 since after his horses that ran on August 11th.  (He was 1 for 4 on 8/11 with 2 entries at CNL and 2 at Sar).

So 2 for his last 19.
Title: Re: Appleby
Post by: Molesap on October 14, 2024, 06:47:34 AM
A quick little breakdown of those 15 starts since August 11 where he is 15-1-5-4. Every race except one was a graded stake. So, for most trainers winning a graded stake and placing in 2/3 of them is not a bad lifetime achievement, but we are talking about Charles Appleby here. There were four times (including yesterday at Kee) where he went off as a less than even money favorite and lost all four times. He was favored twice at greater than even money and lost those as well. The other nine times he was not favored, and his win came at 7/2 odds. So, that means in 2024 prior to that date he was 36-12-8-7. Aggregate prior to that in the US he was 76-30-15-8. That means his win percentage was at almost 40% at the beginning of the year and that has dropped down to 34% lifetime in US racing at 127-43-28-19.