So, Jake tweeted out the stake winning numbers from last weekend. He gave Roses For Debra, Top Gunner, and Bentornato all 4 or more points better than Seize The Grey and Thorpedo Anna. Which is about 6 points wrong.
Here’s a suggestion, Jake. I know you’re really busy because you do figures for all tracks yourself (you told someone it’s just a formula, right)?
But you should take a few minutes to do a basic sprint/route analysis at Parx and other tracks. You know, the kind anyone who has been making figures for a month would do regularly to check themselves.
I have an idea. Why don’t you post the sheets for the Pa Derby and Cotillion with the numbers you gave them, so your customers can get an idea of what they’re paying for? Which is, that you have two entire fields of top level 3yos not firing at all, all on the same day.
Here’s the thing. Those races are the easy ones.
I wish they had posted the winning number for the Parx Dirt Mile. The race collapsed the final two furlongs and they ended up running the mile in 1:40 & change.
The raw BSF number was 21 points slower than the Pennsylvania Derby and 17 points slower than the Cotillion. When the adjusted numbers came out the difference was -5 and -1.
I\'m just curious what happened and how others handled the situation. I don\'t think it was a timer malfunction.
I heard Lukas say the track was VERY deep . Not sure if this was an exaggeration or not , but he said they were going in 6-7\". ;-)
Track was slow, for sure. For all the horses.
I was wondering the same thing. The times seem to suggest a tiring track.
Here’s a suggestion. Why don’t you and Jake both post the sheets for that card with the final figures? That would be interesting.
If you can get them to do that I’m definitely in.
Seize the Grey ran back to his top.
So they have Thorpedo Anna bouncing by 9 points from the Travers to the Cotillion?
I don’t know what Jake gave the Travers, but over there anything is possible. They’ve got a process, at the end figures come out, and that makes them “rightâ€. It doesn’t matter whether they make sense or not.
I always enjoy this but I find it serves no purpose. However, I recall a race where looking at TG cost me a TON...where in race sheets had the winner the fastest...tg the slowest...and numbers were not even close...if I recall PIMLICO race 10 on may 17....i think...u guys had the 1 really slow...sheets horse was the fastest...yes, its one race, but it also implies a lot of numbers were off...I may have sheets somewhere for that race...
And if Anna runs a bad race next out, who is right? It will be easy to say she was due for a bad one considering the campaign and your numbers were right..or if sheets have her slow last race, I have no idea, are they right?
It is so subjective, but look at race I referenced and tell me you make no mistakes..
I have always contended you can make money with both....
They gave Fierceness a \"3\" for the Travers.
Any individual result can make anyone or any method of handicapping look good. That’s not the point, as I have made clear.
Againâ€" ask Jake to post sheets for the route races at Parx 9/21, and for the Kentucky Oaks, including the figures the horses have run before and since. Once you look at them I won’t have to explain things to you. We’re not talking about some close matter of judgement.
Which is why he won’t post them.
After weight and ground Anna ran about 3 points worse, so based on that they had her going back 6 points.
Three horses were involved in that fast pace in the Parx Dirt Mile:
REPO ROCKS
INJUNCTION
CONCEALED CARRY
CONCEALED CARRY came back at Parx this past Saturday and wired a field at 9/2.
REPO ROCKS will try to do the same this coming Saturday at Aqueduct. I was hoping to see him come back in a sprint, but they\'re keeping him at a mile in the Forty Niner Stakes.
Let\'s see what happens.
I posted that day and I liked Injunction. As the day went on I hedged and said that Repo Rocks Injunction might be a better way to go. The Track was very speed favoring.
Those two carved out a head and head pace and only gave way late to the classier chalk. Repo Rocks looks like a solid recovery play. I don\'t have the numbers in front of me yet nut he seems to ne cycling back.
There may be a solid play at Keeneland Saturday. Need to verify with Figs however
He\'s been slow to come around as a 6yo and the pattern still looks flat. Doesn\'t look like much, unless that last race is buried.
Good luck at Keeneland.