I have ZERO inside information. I just have a strong hunch this Filly is gonna fire against a very competitive field.
Silver Charm Wrote:
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> I have ZERO inside information. I just have a
> strong hunch this Filly is gonna fire against a
> very competitive field.
Filly definitely looks strong and poised to benefit from the weight and ground advantages which should make her extremely tough.
HOWEVER, Fierceness looks like another planet to me -- his 4 wins speak for themselves and no horse in this race can touch that horse.
His only off efforts were his three losses and those are easily explainable as a young very inexperienced horse encountering certain types of adversity for a first time (even though it happened three times - these were genuinely quirky situations). Horses of this quality eventually learn from these experiences and become quite consistent (the great ones threw in a few early career clunkers before their greatness shone; horses that are in and outer types never really attain a level like this).
I know a lot people will say that some horses just make their own trouble and you have to figure that in, but this horse doesn\'t behave the way a horse that usually makes its own trouble behaves (a concern I have with Sierra Leone). This horse seems like an honest innocent victim of certain circumstances.
While you might say he could run into contested pace issues on the front end, you could have said that for the Breeders Cup Juvenile last year and you would have missed out on a $35 horse. Except for that race, this horse has been seriously backed for his entire career (e.g. KY Derby favorite) and has generally proven the bettors correct. In this race, this horse is not going to be favored yet he is on a different level than all the other horses. This may well be the last time this horse will not be the favorite.
I really think you can buy this race with just the two of them - the filly and Fierceness. If you want to look for value in the vertical - perhaps a Corporate Power or Unmatched Wisdom could fill out the deeper exotics. I think that both Sierra Leone and Dornoch have questions which make it unlikely for them to reach the level that the Filly and Fierceness will on this day and could open up for some value below.
Unfortunately, I agree with the commentators on here that the HAJ is wide open and requires a spread, so only going two deep here helps pay for that spread. Definitely think it is better to go (8) x (2) rather than (4) x (4) between the two races even though the cost is the same.
It\'s August - Torpedo is working up a storm by all accts, but in addition to Fierceness, Corp Power may be the one who jumps in August. 4 pt jump last out and pattern puts him right there at 15:1.
Something to consider...good luck to all.
Fierceness has followed both of his prior negative numbers with an X. We’ll see but this horse has a history of quitting when headed. Not sure he wants 1 1/4 mile either.
I’m going with Sierra Leone. Unmatched Wisdom can keep Anna honest through the first half mile. That could set it up for Chad’s other horse.
jerry Wrote:
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> Fierceness has followed both of his prior negative
> numbers with an X. We’ll see but this horse has
> a history of quitting when headed. Not sure he
> wants 1 1/4 mile either.
>
> I’m going with Sierra Leone. Unmatched Wisdom
> can keep Anna honest through the first half mile.
> That could set it up for Chad’s other horse.
His first negative number was winning the Breeders Cup Juvenile and the race following was a three year old debut he obviously wasn\'t cranked up for (who is going to pair up the winning Juvenile figure on Feb 3 of the three year old year?). I have to think it is not unusual for Juvenile winners to go backwards in their 3 yo debut off the winning Juvenile figure. On top of that, he had a ton of trouble, and even with all that, he ran a figure that the vast majority of 3yo colts would covet on Feb 3. He was only beaten by a colt that was able to wire the field with very easy fractions and a colt that just won the Dwyer by 7.5 lengths.....I would be cautious penalizing him today on the basis of that effort.
The next negative figure was a new top -3.25 in March. The bounce was in the Derby where he had trouble at the start, rushed into contention into a fierce duel, the horse clearly X\'ed with multiple excuses/explanations for it.
The figure to look at is his Jim Dandy. It was a negative 1 in late July. That figure is not nearly the isolated jump up figures you are comparing it to. It was not only not a new top, it was not even his secondary top. That negative figure is arguably just where the horse is now.
There are ways this horse could X -- e.g.crazy duel/trouble -- but I dont think it is reasonable to say because he previously bounced off negative numbers - that analysis looks a little myopic to me. If he is a negative 1 horse now, then he should usually run his race. It is not crazy in the context of his career to say in late august of his 3yo year, he is a horse that is at the minus 1 level.
As to quitting when headed, that may be myopic too. He has quit twice -- both with pretty good excuses and it was not a case here he got headed in the last furlong and couldn\'t hold on. Both times he quit, he struggled to get the lead and couldn\'t even get second and quit pretty early. In two of his four wins, he did not have the lead and needed to pass a horse to take the lead. We will see if a horse gets near him in the last furlong - but when I watch the Jim Dandy replay, it looks to me like he actually pulled away from Sierra Leone in the last furlong - not only did he hold on but he re-rallied against a strong closer that had headed him. That race was 9 furlongs - it didnt look to me like the extra furlong was going to help Sierra Leone catch him. Watching the replay of the mile and an eighth Jim Dandy does not give me confidence that Sierra Leone should be able to turn the tables on him at 10 furlongs tomorrow.
Look, this is horse racing, he could just wake up on the wrong side of the bed - he could have trouble or get stuck in a crazy duel, but this horse is a horse at a whole different level than the rest of this field. If he fails, it is not going to be because he reacts to every negative figure or that he cant withstand a closer when headed. This horse has been heavily bet most of his career and this is a rare case where you can get the clearly best horse and he wont even be favored and he will be longer odds than you will be able to get him most of the time. My biggest problem is that the filly is getting 5 lbs and will not give up any ground and unfortunately Johnny Velazquez is allergic to the rail, so this horse needs to run a big figure to beat the filly - but absent unusual circumstances, the two of them should be fairly clear of the rest of this field.
He was up there Thursday to see a horse had running. Anderson was concerned that the filly might run off when guided to the outside. She was head strong in a work because she is ready to rock and roll and if she engages outside well now we have a bit of speed duel or stressful pace. Why does she go outside? To avoid the kick back. A lot of handicappers have her sitting a pocket trip saving all the ground sooooo........
He also spoke with Kenny McPeek who said he is as confident today as he was Oaks Day. She is a FREAK. McPeek is going for a Oaks-Derby-Travers Sweep that has probably never been done. This is a long ways for a guy who when he first got in the business had only ONE horse down at Fairgrounds and he got totally loose (as in he left the grounds) and was running down Bourbon Street. Or somewhere close. True Story. I reminded him of this after Oaks-Derby and he still remembers the name as he laughed. You never forget how far you\'ve come when your not born on 3rd base. I know one thing he can handicap, he looks at numbers and he knows his horse. She will be in the best place for her to Win and she is Gonna FIRE.
I said earlier this week I like Society. Gun Pilot like a lot of 3YO they tried to stretch out last year and like some Gun Runners (Vahva) they are Sprinters. He will be tough but look out for Pratt. His horse has some serious come home time. But needs a new 1 point top. The first half dozen races are Lotterys. Good Luck everybody!!
Anna is washed out.
I would say going wide cost her
I texted this to two different people before the race.
\"I think they might take back a tad. No reason
to have her nose up Dornachs butt\"
Turns out they sent Batton Down. She was loaded. Ran her heart out. They won\'t make excuses It was a great race and I did save with this exacta.
Sierra Leone will have more excuses. It\'s an old act and a disgrace to the Colts and Fillys who keep beating. Including Mystic Dan in the Derby
I thought he was going to be an overlay. I couldn’t take him at 8/5.
Idk, maybe I\'m losing the plot a bit but I think there\'s something to be said for the fact that Sierra Leone has shown up in all the big races and hit the board running his race as a closer in all of them.
It\'s not his fault the public over bets him like the fastest horse in races he simply isn\'t. I think the answer is just wait until the day he\'s 3 or 4-1 in a big spot. I thought that would be today and I was very wrong about that, among other things.
Anna ran her race, problem for the entire field is Fierceness showed up and ran his.
I love SL
Classic Tri key horse
johnnym Wrote:
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> I love SL
> Classic Tri key horse
no offense, but betting an 8-5 to hit the board on your trifecta is not a good EV move unless you happen to have an additional key that is a price. In this race, SL was the heavily bet favorite yet going in he clearly couldn\'t hold a candle to the two obvious fastest horses. Those two hooked up for a $56 exacta. It is pretty rare that you have a Grade 1 race and the obvious two fastest horses will pay that generously in an exacta. SL, while very talented, is a classic type of horse that makes his own trouble. If that Japanese horse had been ridden by any other non-japanese jockey at the track, SL would never have ended up in the Derby exacta and being DQ\'ed there would not have been a bad beat. The only reason he didnt come down was because in Japanese culture it is viewed as an affront or insult to the stewards if you claim foul. SL\'s jockey was fined for the foul instead changing the finish positions. How often do you see that?
Nice call in this race. You nailed it.
I had 75% on my Bet on the Filly to Win. And split the other 25% on the horses TG recommended as Savers in a Straight Exacta with her. 10%, 10% and 5% I made out ok.
I wanted her to win. For the Filly and the Connections. I\'m totally drained now
Silver Charm Wrote:
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> Nice call in this race. You nailed it.
>
> I had 75% on my Bet on the Filly to Win. And split
> the other 25% on the horses TG recommended as
> Savers in a Straight Exacta with her. 10%, 10% and
> 5% I made out ok.
>
> I wanted her to win. For the Filly and the
> Connections. I\'m totally drained now
thank you
Silver Charm Wrote:
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> Nice call in this race. You nailed it.
>
> I had 75% on my Bet on the Filly to Win. And split
> the other 25% on the horses TG recommended as
> Savers in a Straight Exacta with her. 10%, 10% and
> 5% I made out ok.
>
> I wanted her to win. For the Filly and the
> Connections. I\'m totally drained now
Filly is a super nice horse and would have won most Travers, just happened to run into a genuine monster. I understand the disappointment, but she and the connections can still hold their heads high. Alydar had the same problem.
What a fun day of racing, and lots of great discussion here. These days are why we love this game.
Society made my day thx JB
This is a GR1 forum
Go across the street and its like watching 3k claimers at Assiniboia Downs on a Tuesday night
Enjoy your Weekend. Can\'t wait for the NFL week 1, gonna be another profitable season
The trifecta paid a little over twice as much as the exacta, so including SL really wasn\'t a bad idea, especially if you thought the 1-2 finishers were the most likely to run 1-2.
Personally, I boxed the exacta & the tri & hit them both using only those 3. I\'ve basically given up on SL, but I still wasn\'t sure enough to toss him because of the projected hot pace. I played all 3 in front & back DDs, but at the odds I had to throw a win bet on Fierceness & added an extra DD with Fierceness & the 14th race winner.
Basically the Travers made my day, in part because SL finished 3rd.
Kenny and Repole were both in the vicinity of the Winners Circle post race laughing and nearly high fiving. They both had proved their points and McPeek probably Joked \"you owe me afree Stallion Fee when I breed her to him\" and Repole probably replied \"Done Deal\". Sportsmanship
As far as SoCal and his breakdown of Fierceness I have been through this. Champagne Day the weather was so horrible I would not blame anyone for not showing up. Forget just the Track. Sheets of rain were coming. It was cold. First out in Florida he leaves tje gate in no rush at all. Ranges up turning for home looking like a winner and finishes like he was two works short. Derby was the real head scratcher but if you stayed with the horse you got your money back yesterday. At the 1/8th Pole he made that price look like a gift. And then the Filly came and tested his heart. He gave you an answer there.
Numbers wise it\'s going to look predictable I bet. Fierceness another Neg 1. The Filly another 1. And Sierra Leone another 1. She had the rail trip and got 5lbs. If it makes you feel any better one of the best handicoappers around Ron Anderson was wrong. They were NOT gonna give up ground loss to avoid kick back.She relaxed. She angled out. She saw her target and FIRED. Today I heard she is pissed in her stall. Never gonna happen again was her attitude
Yes Society was clearly the day maker. Great call in the seminar.
Did well in the Travers too, although if Thorpedo gets by its
a home run instead of a double. Just a great day of racing tho.
Perhaps on the far turn, but the GPS chart has Fierceness running an extra 30 ft