Tomorrow\'s 5th race at Saratoga has an interesting workout angle to consider. These are $16kN2L Claimers that include a TAP/Repole/St Elias FOR SALE horse, a Walder horse that loves running 2nd, a Maker horse with 2 decent dirt races in Apr/May, a first off the claim Linda and a 10 horse field. These other horses should lead to a decent price for the one described below.
#6 Barrell Craft goes to the Dirt for the first time after 2 Poly track starts at GP. One in March of 2023 to win on debut at MdnClm16k and then a return in July of this year for 25k claiming but he was eligible to not be claimed. His debut was for trainer Jeff Hiles and now he is trained by Jack Sisterson.
His bullet workout at PmM of 48 flat on Aug 5th matches up with a horse named Be Here Now. Be Here Now hasn\'t raced since August of 2023. That race at Ellis Be Here Now won by 9 1/2 lengths. She hasn\'t been seen since but that was a N2L Allowance and she broke her maiden in a MSW race on dirt at GP prior to that.
Be Here Now\'s trainer is none other than Jeff Hiles. (Maybe now Be Here Now is trained by Sisterson also??) Be Here Now\'s owner is Rocket Ship Racing LLC. #6 Barrell Craft as stated was previously trained by Hiles and is owned by Rocket Ship Racing LLC.
Barrell Craft\'s return at GP was an okay 5f effort with a decent gallop out, with and just past the winner into the Turn although he didn\'t blast by to be clear but he kept on. This 1 mile race is similar to the debut winning distance.
I\'ve seen worse 5-1 shots and could be a bigger price in this race. 2nd off the layoff. First time Dirt with a solid dirt work 3 back and a sneaky move maybe?
Sneaky b/c this horse must somehow qualify under the Waiver Claiming rule to be exempt from claim as he is not listed for a tag. I don\'t know the exact rule or care really as long as the horse is eligible for this race and not up for a claim. He started for $16k on debut to likely fit here even under the waiver rule.
The ownership group of this name has 2 winners on the year from 27 starts. One of which was Sunday at Gulfstream Park in a MdnClm35k race with a horse trained by Jack Sisterson. I think they shipped here to give a serious shot at a Spa Win.
I\'m in on the horse as a key. Good Luck!
Read this last night, and then promptly forgot all about it. Thought it was a good write up , the kind we dont see a lot of .
Just missed at 5-1 .
PS It\'s REALLY hard to get past a Pletcher going long . Damn near impossible by my eye.
Two questions for the board. Trying to put late pick 5 together Saturday-
Timberlake has not reached his 2yo top and looks slow going in,can I
be confident that he doesnt pop on the cut back and Cox sticks it to me?
Secondly, World Record keeps getting faster, but has to bounce off the neg 1 with
that much development this year right?
Thanks in advance for any input.
I\'m by no means an expert and I would love to hear a more expert opinion than my own, but given the 3pts of development expected for Into Mischief horses, Timberlake getting down to that -0 or -1 he may need to win this race could be in his range of outcomes.
I follow the Jeff Franklin school of thought on 3YOs and bounces. It\'s not so easy to just predict a developing 3YO or lightly raced 4YO will bounce. World Record made a 5 pt jump second time out appearing to have more horse, then paired that effort on an off surface and a bad break when he had every right to bounce. Then he comes out and runs a -1 and draws the ground saving trip that could break any tie of horses trying to meet or exceed that number. I\'m by no means seasoned enough using the sheets to say he\'s the \"easy pick\" TGJB was referring to, but I\'d wager it\'s either him or Prince of Monaco.
Thanks for the input, the trainer also is over 70% to pair or top, but I
also worry about the huge development. I clearly will not let Baffert beat me
and the horse is rested. I am trying to get a little skinny on this race so I can
include some of the bombs I like in races 13 and 14.
A member here said to me once, never play a horse to bounce until they bounce.
glass_oni0n Wrote:
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> I\'m by no means an expert and I would love to hear
> a more expert opinion than my own, but given the
> 3pts of development expected for Into Mischief
> horses, Timberlake getting down to that -0 or -1
> he may need to win this race could be in his range
> of outcomes.
>
> I follow the Jeff Franklin school of thought on
> 3YOs and bounces. It\'s not so easy to just
> predict a developing 3YO or lightly raced 4YO will
> bounce. World Record made a 5 pt jump second time
> out appearing to have more horse, then paired that
> effort on an off surface and a bad break when he
> had every right to bounce. Then he comes out and
> runs a -1 and draws the ground saving trip that
> could break any tie of horses trying to meet or
> exceed that number. I\'m by no means seasoned
> enough using the sheets to say he\'s the \"easy
> pick\" TGJB was referring to, but I\'d wager it\'s
> either him or Prince of Monaco.
I’ve never seen Jerry pick a horse like the 1. Could be the Baffert, but I don’t think so.
I think World of Trouble can back up a little and win.
I don\'t see Timberlake and he\'ll probably get bet.
Prince of Monaco may end up favored over Book \'em Danno, and I would toss the latter at the weights. I\'m clearer on what I don\'t like.
For value Pletcher and those outside horses are interesting. Domestic Product is a bit of a headache. Quite a race!
HP
World Record! Trying to avoid World of Trouble
Yeah, Michael, I don’t bet a lot of dirt horses off 6 point tops.
I thought it was clear I was kidding about the race being easy, there’s no clear pick, or I would have done it for the seminar. I do like a horse a little, but only cause of the price. Race is a mess.
The good news is there’s a limited number of horses to use in some of the surrounding races.
thanks to all for input. I am likely pressing Prince and Jefferson St
Cant really get too skinny here tho, apparently.
JB is Jefferson St a 0-2-X candidate?
Or do you think being a 3yo he can get right back to the fast one
Little Ni has an explosive line. Could get a 2w stalking trip behind the three main speedsters.
Paulâ€" yes and yes.
I’m pretty damn smart apparently
So at the price he’s a must use to get back to it
At a shorter price maybe not
In case you need an example. Behold this 7th just now( 8/22 )
Good point on World Record, but in that sense I have a little bit of trouble understanding how ground loss doesn\'t potentially play a factor in his being a major contender. That was my concern over Jefferson Street who clearly has the possibility of getting back to that good number, but could be wide in that second flight of horses. If World Record is able to not completely flop (which he may, but I maintain he doesn\'t have to), he\'s the fastest horse up front saving ground, a two point regression could possibly win this race if trips impact others. I probably want World Record, Prince of Monaco and Jefferson Street in my multi\'s and Speak Easy could be a little dangerous.
and I did consider that Jerry was being a bit facetious, but that\'s why there are masters and students :D
If Speak Easy is anywhere near double digits, I think he has to be played. Runs big first out (better on Beyer than TG). Huge layoff, runs well back. Normal spacing for this one says he goes nicely forward in only his 3rd race.
Walloped two of the Travers runners early on.
Worried a bit about Domestic Product late, since I think half the field is going to be gunning for the lead.
You used the only word in the English language with the vowels in order. You can work the Y in there too, for a bonus.
TGJB Wrote:
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> You used the only word in the English language
> with the vowels in order. You can work the Y in
> there too, for a bonus.
Isn\'t there a song - AEIOU and sometimes Y
\"Facetiously\"
Socalman3 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> TGJB Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > You used the only word in the English language
> > with the vowels in order. You can work the Y in
> > there too, for a bonus.
>
> Isn\'t there a song - AEIOU and sometimes Y
>
> \"Facetiously\"
apparently, Facetious and Facetiously are not the only ones -- although a ton of the other ones are mighty obscure words. One that isnt so obscure - larcenious
https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/Category:English_words_that_use_all_vowels_in_alphabetical_order
Guys are like Cliff Clavin
Jefferson Street 0-2-X pattern?
Johnny see my post above, I asked this and JB answered
Thanks Paul.
Struck me a bit peculiar that Jeff picked him on BYK show. Also the regress came with no lasix.
I’m leaning towards Domestic Product.
GL
John
2 deep:
Book \'em
Prince
That is all, go in peace...
By now it should be clear why I didn’t do the race for the seminar…
Loud and clear XD
Final answer for me is 5-10*-1-2. Speak Easy is the one that\'s on the fringe of my ticket. I absolutely hate that Fierceness is trending as an overlay; I have no idea what to do with that.
*I meant 10 not 12, 12 would be a tough horse to make in here...and Prince of Monaco is 5
Full disclosure I’m on Domestic Product
I went 6 deep and somehow didn\'t use this one
Vettriano will be a big price and has not been fully extended this year in his two facile wins. He still needs to improve, but expecting a lightly raced three year old to jump up a couple of points at this time of the year is not out of the question, especially since he essentially paired his first 3YO number. I like that he cuts back and is from a top barn. I think it is easier for horses in sprints to make the jump into stakes races the first time but he could not have picked a tougher spot. Still I think he has enough to offer to use here at the kind of price he is going to be. I am going to key him and bet to win.
I\'m not a big fan of betting on dirt sprinters off 6 point tops - but with the way the track is playing today you can\'t overlook the #1 in this race. Additionally, the trainer just won the prior race and it appears the #1 breezed at Keeneland with that one and only beaten a tick in the work by his older stablemate. Currently 7/1...
Good one johnny
nice call
I made a win bet on him, to cover the cost of my ticket and the stupidity of leaving him off
Thanks All
Now to close out the Double
Nice Call. This was a tough race and I was no where. Again Great Pick