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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: TGJB on August 06, 2024, 04:22:10 PM

Title: Off the rails
Post by: TGJB on August 06, 2024, 04:22:10 PM
Jake gave Adare Manor the same figure as the Whitney winner. There is zero chance that’s correct. The first three all ran better than she did.
Title: Re: Off the rails
Post by: Tavasco on August 07, 2024, 07:46:56 AM
On YouTube, I saw an explanation of their #\'s in general. I read that their # defines a horse\'s ability (both physical and mental). That may explain a lot of their differences. I don\'t think anyone else is measuring mental.
Title: Re: Saratoga weather
Post by: pip4126 on August 07, 2024, 07:50:57 AM
With rain, heavy at times expected Thursday, Friday, and Saturday what will NYRA do with all the Graded Stakes races scheduled? Does anyone know if they have a contingency plan? Oh wait, it\'s NYRA they can\'t think that far out.
Title: Re: Off the rails
Post by: Rich Curtis on August 07, 2024, 09:19:06 AM
Yeah, their numbers are accurate to within a few IQ points.
Title: Re: Off the rails
Post by: TGJB on August 07, 2024, 10:22:33 AM
Hah!!!
Title: Re: Off the rails
Post by: Gary Irish on August 07, 2024, 02:12:55 PM
Sorry to break up the Yuk fest. I enjoy a good laugh and sometimes try too hard to get one.

Tavasco - can you give attribution for your statement? I am kinda busy right now, don\'t want to pull up You Tube and verify. Just tell me who said it. The mental thing.

I have a long history with The Sheets, and while I have not been a particularly successful player, I never put the blame for losing on the figures.

In the absence of attribution, I will call this Fake News.

If I am wrong, I will try to scrape together an apology.
Title: Re: Off the rails
Post by: Boscar Obarra on August 07, 2024, 03:09:41 PM
I wasted some time looking at this .  All I could find was a reference to \'MENTAL ADJUSTMENTS\'  to the figures.
Title: Re: Off the rails
Post by: TGJB on August 07, 2024, 03:25:59 PM
If they’re doing anything with the mental states of the horses they’ve gone even further downhill than I thought since I left there years ago. Highly unlikely.

And anyway, that’s the least of their problems.

Meanwhile, on Earth, I ended up breaking out the 2yo filly stake at Saratoga Sunday and giving the winner a big number. It was the last dirt race of the day, and it was either do that or give all the rest of them just terrible numbers, in a stake. We’ll watch what they all do coming back. (Not the winner, she could run anything off that).
Title: Re: Off the rails
Post by: Gary Irish on August 07, 2024, 04:17:30 PM
Hello Jerry,

Your repeated attacks against your former employer deserve analysis I am unqualified for. Some help here (lol)?

Look, you have won. Why don\'t you declare victory? You took the closest friend of mine and won him over. He is a customer of yours. Why do you feel the need to further berate the competition? Is this an ego thing?

I think the Sheets are superior. Why not let me hand you my money? Is the game still pari-mutuel? Is the horse you are beating dead yet? The drumbeat is boring.

I love your bulletin board versus what happens over there. But if you are going to call me an idiot - I will argue.

When I saw Defunded ran six straight 1\'s, I knew not much had changed.

Your friend, Gary
Title: Re: Off the rails
Post by: TGJB on August 07, 2024, 04:32:30 PM
The points I make are backed up with evidence and critical analysis, not name calling. I continue because when I take away enough players they will be forced to shut down, giving me a bunch of revenue without taking on much new expense. Pretty straightforward, and not personal. I like the guy who owns them now.
Title: Re: Off the rails
Post by: Tavasco on August 07, 2024, 04:39:01 PM
\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=38d5MDhfrqM\"
Title: Re: Off the rails
Post by: Mstrlucky74$ on August 07, 2024, 04:41:46 PM
Their figured seem inaccurate. Based on their website, info(or lack of), and others things it seems like they don\'t care. I\'d think they try hard to make their product better but I see no effort doing that.
Title: Re: Off the rails
Post by: Gary Irish on August 07, 2024, 04:49:28 PM
Okay brother.

You post a link I cannot click on and leave it at that. Instead of answering yhe question.

Coward.
Title: Re: Off the rails
Post by: Rich Curtis on August 07, 2024, 05:22:02 PM
Check the company that made the video, and check the date. This is all nonsense.
Title: Re: Off the rails
Post by: johnnym on August 07, 2024, 06:56:12 PM
Good thing this forum doesn’t get numbers based on our mental performance.
I would guess plenty of Xs with an occasional pair.
Title: Re: Off the rails
Post by: albatross on August 07, 2024, 06:57:14 PM
Coward???

Like you think he did it intentionally. The links don’t always come through on many boards. Would you argue over there if there were more than three post a week.
Title: Re: Off the rails
Post by: Boscar Obarra on August 07, 2024, 10:38:07 PM
Seriously?  

 All you have to do is remove the quotes and paste it
 

That said, dont waste your time
Title: Re: Off the rails
Post by: tracker on August 08, 2024, 04:17:24 PM
You sound like bigly Trump. You have called them names. I haven\'t once seen or heard \'proof\' on anything. You can\'t pick out of context one figure from them or even you and say its right just because you say so. You think stakes horses can\'t run poorly? There is no evidence or critical thinking if its just something you believe. It is impossible to prove. Horses are pack animals and if leaders in a race are slow they may all be happy to just follow the leader of the pack.

You give a horse a big top and then it bounces when they pair it up. If the horse moves forward in next start it can be explained off both patterns.

You haven\'t put them out of business yet so why now? From what I hear they have most of the trainers on retainers bigly.
Title: Re: Off the rails
Post by: TGJB on August 08, 2024, 05:03:17 PM
Rather than waste my time talking to a guy who doesn’t know what he’s talking about (bigly), I will suggest you go find my posts discussing what Jake did with this years Oaks. Yes, any individual horse can run anything, and anyone can blow figures for an individual race. But the issues here involve methodology, and logic vs dogma. And figures for the kind of races where a big error is inexcusable.

Here’s a thought. Ask Jake to post sheets for this years Oaks field, including the figures they’ve run since.
Title: Re: Off the rails
Post by: tracker on August 08, 2024, 05:33:54 PM
I apologize to you and your customers. I should not engage someone so desperately insecure. You will not hear from me again.
Title: Re: Off the rails
Post by: TGJB on August 08, 2024, 05:46:47 PM
Yeah, that’s me. You know, I’m curious, Jim. Your name rings a bell from a long time ago, but I can’t place you. Racing Times? Or, given the email, Ragozin trackman?
Title: Re: Off the rails
Post by: P-Dub on August 08, 2024, 06:14:57 PM
tracker Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I apologize to you and your customers. I should
> not engage someone so desperately insecure. You
> will not hear from me again.


Damn Jerry, you really got this guy up in his feelings.

I hope he\'s ok.
Title: Re: Off the rails
Post by: johnnym on August 09, 2024, 05:26:32 AM
Guess we know how he votes.
Title: Re: Off the rails
Post by: TGJB on August 09, 2024, 07:09:30 AM
Only thing worse would have been if he compared me to Ragozin.