Well I dont know if I can Pick TWO WINNERS like I did on Haskel Preview Day but I might try. And yes that Deadheat for Running Bee counts as Winner.
Early analysis is with the short fields some races are fairly chalky. So can the Chalks be beaten? That is to be determined. Shotgun Hottie is the 2nd fastest mare in the race. But the last time she ran a figure that good she ended up on the bench for 6 months. This is Scylla\'s 5th race in about 14 weeks. She won easy last out over Xigera who does have that isolated top at CD. Gonna sleep on this one but Shotgun at 4-1 ML versus Scylla at 6-5 might be enough to just take a swing she doesnt bounce.
Green Light FREAKED in last and might be the lone speed. But First World War is as fast and I doubt Detorri lets the speed horse get too far away. Why does he work at Turfway? Lagynos only needs a small forward move. Is off the Derby Trail and focusing on Turf. Could be closing into a slow pace is the only concern but solid turf work 12 days ago.
Bango laid an egg in the St Mathews but he did so in 2022. And what did he do next? Came back and won the Aristides running 108:2. This time he skips the Aristides and shows up in this race he won last year. Will be the ALL TIME Churchill Downs win leader with another win and if he is on the Tote at that 6-1 ML I dont care if he is 7YO dont pass him up and play Closethegame Sugar to bounce.
First Mission drew off like a freight train on Oaks Day. Is always bet and so is Cox. Apparently training up a storm but at 6-5? When he is only co fastest in the race. Skippy can have a mind of his own but when he wants to run he is good enough and fast enough to beat First Mission. Unless of course FM is sitting on New Top. I know I won\'t be chasing that at 6-5 here.
Feel free to weigh in. If you dont pick a winner nobody will hold it against you. And maybe you go TWO FOR TWO!!
I puzzled over the Stephen Foster for a while late last night. I was trying to develop a contrarian perspective. i.e. A perspective of a result not unreasonable but also not obvious to a first-look analysis. All while finding a ticket with took advantage of what I saw as an overlay angle.
So first, I came up with the notion of tossing the two short-priced contenders Skippylongstocking and First Mission. As tough as their trainers are neither horse is bulletproof. Negative TG #\'s produce a negative reaction often enough to produce value. Tossing both from the top slot may seem bold but it sure will improve an exacta payout.
Several candidates will escalate the tri payoff in one of the two under-slots. Entrants like Pyrenees and Happy American in the tri would probably be the best candidates based on price/potential.
I\'m too bleary-eyed to edit or proof the above. To be continued...
It\'s not unreasonable for Skippy & First Mission to ruin each other\'s race but what else are Geroux and J. Ortiz going to do? Who then inherits the win. I\'m gonna count on Steal the Sunshine to run 2nd. A horse that runs the same # six consecutive times will confuse many a player. In the top spot, I\'ll use Dreamlike and Disarm. Either horse could fit the model of a nice almost exceptional 3 y/o who improves as a 4/ y/o.
Lastly, I\'ll add my previously identified third-place candidate under my two exacta tickets as Tri tickets.
All in all the above thinking probably makes a simple puzzle more complicated than it needs to be. Alternatively (an insurance hedge) playing the two favorites in the win slot, my two win choices in the second slot, and my third place choices in the third while leaving the stuck-on-one # enigma to bounce may look better in the light of day.
Disarm certainly could be a formidable older horse this year. He had a beautiful looking line last year but always seemed to be catching up with the good ones. Had a good 2nd in the Travers. I wish that comeback figure had been faster. He can be in the mix in this division
Cox has 3 good Olders Colts. FM, Highland Falls and Saudi Crown. First Mission might be his best one and its Goldolphin. But Cox loses 74% of the races he runs in. He had TWO chalks at CD last Saturday go down (albeit 2-1) and Catching Freedom at 2-5 in the Ohio Derby didnt hit the Board. A Covfefe has burned wheel barrels of money at CD twice. An outstanding trainer who does lose races and doesnt make 20 excuses like Chad Brown.
Scalable returns to the dirt for 2-27 Todd. Picks up Irad. Has always been aggressively spotted and now lands in a spot where it looks like anyone can win. Unless D Wayne is up to something.
Speaking of Todd his former mare Cairo Consort has now been sold again and is back in Canada. This was my Best Bet of the Day on Florida Derby Day along with chalk Fierceness. She got way to far back Derby Day and isnt as good as Chili Flag and company. But she looked to be improving. Now gets Lasix again but also gets Fev Rover as a foe who blew away the field in this race at Woodbine last year. Has a race under her belt and if she is 5-2 it looks like a gift. Unless I\'m missing something. Woodbine has a good Card.
Scalable gets up. Cherie DeVaux not to be overlooked,
Yes on Scalable. The dirt 9 made her look solid in the race. One other big factor was the CD stretch is not the GP stretch going a mile and a 1/16th. And she needed every inch of it.
I\'m staying with Shotgun here. 6 weeks rest and 4 works
Post Race: She got bottled up and couldnt run when she needed to run, For 7 furlongs she got a great trip it was that 8th furlong that was the problem. No excuses that\'s racing.....
Interesting that the only horse that came out of last year\'s Travers unscathed is National Treasure.
Good Luck,
Joe B
jbelfior Wrote:
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> Interesting that the only horse that came out of
> last year\'s Travers unscathed is National
> Treasure.
>
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B
Good point. And giving Baffert credit is this one was pretty good 2 and 3 and now 4.
Who was sending it in yesterday at the last moment on First Mission down to 4-5 and The Green horse in the Turf Race?
The TG #\'s yesterday were pretty good it still came down to what you did with them. I took Laygnos and when he went from 8-1 to 12-1 on the last punch I thought it was a gift. He may have been a little to close to the pace (which I was fine with) but he didn\'t have any punch late. Mrs Devoe and Berti looked to be sitting on a POP but on 3 Weeks rest?
I was even for the day and then gave some to then late trying to win some money. There is actually a good Card there at CD today.
It was a nice flow for Kingsbarns and he made the most of it.
TG with a mention from the coverage yesterday and the strong number TG gave out on him in the Ben Ali versus the not so impressive Beyer figure. Nice work!!!!
Taking a huge stab in the 10th there today for a horse trained by a guy who would be challenged getting a squirrel to run up a tree. Happy American needs to remember who he once was but if he does, he could sneak in the number at a juicy price.
Hey its closing day so you never know.
Good Luck,
Joe B.