One of the weakest fields I can remember. Either relatively slow horses or relatively fast horses with erratic form cycles. I’m going with a sentimental choice who was my future book horse. UNCLE HEAVY. Good 2yo numbers. A nice 3yo debut. Bombed in the Wood for some reason. That’s a concern. Both off track races were good which could be the case tomorrow. Sire gets good off track runners. Irad. 20-1 ML.
I like Heavy too, for the same reasons, plus the sire improvement stat from 2 to 3 is a 4-pt. jump. Only thing is, in advance betting, he\'s down to 7-1. We\'ll see if that holds.
PREAKNESS Early Odds - Friday 5/17 at 11:00 PM ET
# Horse Current Odds
1. MUGATU 21
2. UNCLE HEAVY 7
3. CATCHING FREEDOM 7/2
4. MUTH SC
5. MYSTIK DAN 3
6. SEIZE THE GREY 8
7. JUST STEEL 9
8. TUSCAN GOLD 7/2
9. IMAGINATION 9/2
Just Steel is not a bad stab at 9-1. Second fastest horse in the race, fastest 2yo top, trained by a guy who’s won this race before.
BES/Preakness double will pays show Tuscan Gold as a slight favorite.
Winner #GUN SONG
S2 Double Pays:
MUGATU $708.40
UNCLE HEAVY $204.60
CATCHING FREEDOM $30.60
MUTH
MYSTIK DAN $35.20
SEIZE THE GREY $114.40
JUST STEEL $98.00
TUSCAN GOLD $30.00
IMAGINATION $34.20
It\'s so close between CF and TG, I don\'t think the actual betting favorite will be decided until they pass the 7/8ths pole. Maybe the same for the 3rd favorite
I’m putting my thumb over Just Steel’s Derby number. Looks like the only value in the race. Good luck!
HP
Irad 1-22 in two turn dirt races at Pimlico.
#3. Catching Freedom driving line but tough course to close down the stretch.
#5. Mystik Dan most likely winner.
#6. Seize the Grey with a wire job?
#7. Just Steel bounce back to Ark Derby, probably more likely than stable mate improving 3-4 lengths.
#8. Tuscan Gold needs to improve to win but it\'s Chad and the fresh horse angle has worked in the Preakness.
#9. Imagination is a toss on paper, he\'s slow! Would you bet this horse if he was trained by another trainer?
Raining now and going to rain on and off all day. 3,5,7 EX Box