Just going over the pre-entries, and looking at Azeri.
Her pattern is kinda hard to read. On one hand, she\'s bounced each time (twice) this year when she\'s run back to her top and is now coming off her top again for a third time this year, so you would think she would bounce again. And the bounces haven\'t been small either. At least two points both times.
On the other hand, it\'s the BC and you\'d have to figure that Lukas will have her primed for whatever is her best at this point.
The Pattern Figs have her 55% to run OFF or worse.
Based on the available info, I\'d have to say she\'s likely to run about a 1.
But how does one then account for the Lukas priming her factor?
comments?
I agree with you. In addition, she bounced off the tops last year too. A definite play against at 6/5. I actually like STELLAR JAYNE. I like the pattern and the fact that she ran a top at every new track she visited the first time.
I pointed this out to someone as well, that I dont think Azeri can recover as well as used to on three weeks rest. Even last year she was given plenty of time between races. Now she is going in with three weeks rest and I expect her to run off of her best, and if she loses it will have nothing to do with her ability, but poor race spacing by Lukas.
I would think that the bounces off of tops would be a common event for a 6yo mare. A terrific play against.
I\'m leaning towards the 3yos (ASHADO, SOCIETY SELECTION). It takes a super mare to win this race at age 6; not sure AZERI is that anymore.
Good luck,
Joe B.
At least for this year she appears she needs 30+ days rest to run another good fig race. For instance, after running a good race in the Go for Wand she came back on less than 3 weeks and got beat by SFF. Then she got 44 days rest and ran a big race at Keeneland albeit vs easy competition, never extending herself really hard. Now she comes back again in 20 days. If she follows that pattern shes a bet against in the win position anyway.
NC Tony
She got beat by SFF because she tried to run 10f with a 6f split in 109.4 Lone Star is a speed favoring tight extra tight turn track with a short stretch. She\'ll be on the rail saving ground on both turns. The two three year olds are dead closers who will have wide trips and will need to run new tops just to compete.
ezgoer89,
You mention the \"two\" three year olds who are closers. I assume you mean Society Selection and Stellar Jayne.
Ashado is also a 3 year old, has tactical speed, and is fast enough to beat Azeri. She could get a good trip and shouldn\'t be bothered by the tight turns.