Ask the Experts

This is going to be a sprint to the first turn I don’t see Fierceness winning. There are other .23 quarter milers inside of him. If he isn’t wide he ran the first quarter too fast. I think he’s a miler like his dad. He reminds of Quality Road. I also think he’s not going to be persevered with to the end. He also reminds me of Essential Quality.

Just watched the Bay Shore replay. I don’t know how big Fierceness is but I think he can be intimidated. He got bumped around at the start and got rank. He ran at Hades and Hades put him away. There was no fight once Hades regained the lead.

I think this race is going to play out more like the Louisiana Derby. .23 contested first quarter. I don’t like any of them in that group.

Catching Freedom finishes. Sierra Leone looked good in the Bluegrass but Chad’s horses seem to top out in their final prep. Have any of his horses ever moved forward in the Derby? Same with Cox. Hoping this time is different.

I can’t get a good handle on Forever Young. I think one of the best points in the seminar was that the trainer ships in to win. I’m betting he’s around at the finish.

Endlessly is improving and comes in from a good trainer and a synthetic to dirt angle which has yielded some of the larger jump ups.

Honor Marie and Stronghold round out my top 6.

Jerry at this point I\'ve landed on the same horses you note. Then I read from the DRF site the Trainer of T O Password said he expects him to run mid-pack and finish strong. BTW, Forever Young is expected to wear a hood.

After his work two back when he went sub :47 while his countrymate crawled early while finishing fast. I began thinking T O was the one who might go :45 so I could toss him.

The problem is Daisuke Takayanagi, the trainer says he won\'t wear blinkers and the Jockey and horse now seem to be on the same page. I consider his sire King Kamehameha a strong stamina influence. I now imagine both Japanese colts could end up in the super, which is more than I had planned to invest.

I\'ll be watching Alysheba Stakes closely on Friday and if T O Saint Denis runs big I think I\'m headed for tilt.

I think JB might have done this review in the past. Over the last 19 Derbies, not counting 2020 because of the timing of the race, Pletcher, Brown and Cox have the following record for Tops, Pairs, Offs, X’s. (2 of those Pletcher tops are technically pairs. They’re small forward moves.) Regardless, it’s the 33 X’s that stands out most.

Pletcher    3 | 12 | 2 | 33
Brown       0 |  2 | 2 |  3
Cox         1 |  3 | 1 |  5

Pletcher has an abysmal record in this race and he’s come into it with some fast horses who were considered contenders.

The record for horses not trained by Baffert coming into the race off of a negative number isn’t promising either.

The clear value play here is to go with history and play Fierceness to X.

Forever Young has a beautiful pattern.  A couple of nice pairs of fast races. Don\'t know what he beat in Dubai, but a pair of 1\'s is solid and a point or two improvement makes him scary. A tad of an underlay at 7-1, but worth a win bet for sure.

Couple things about his Saudi race, he looked hopelessly beaten and when I watch the replay , I still can\'t believe he got up at the wire. Chased down a nice sprinter / miler type in Book em Danno, after breaking poorly , not changing leads , and it was reported that he did not ship well right on top of the race.

As for the hood and dislike of any kick back from the racing surface, look at his last race as a two year old. They apparently run on a very fine sandy  track in Japan and it looks like he is running in a cloud of dust for the entire race .

The 0 for 19 starters from Dubai to the derby Stat is blown out of proportion I think. The horse has the numbers, 10 furlongs is well within his scope, has done everything that has been asked of him . Being wide does not bother me as he can run all day, and hopefully doesn\'t get stopped in traffic as he is a freight train that needs some time to get going. The long run into the turn should set him up nice. Japan\'s best shot yet. Let\'s see if he is good enough.

On another note, he would love Belmont Park and the 12 furlongs, but not this year. If there was a Triple Crown attempt and success,  would there be an asterisk attached for the change in distance for b3ing held at Saratoga?

I just read this “ Besides 1+1â,,2 miles, the Belmont has been run at the following distances: a mile and five furlongs in 1867â€"1873; a mile and a quarter in 1890â€"1892, 1895, and 1904â€"1905; a mile and a furlong in 1893â€"1894 and again in 2020; and a mile and three furlongs from 1896 to 1903 and 1906â€"1925.”

Obviously trying to beat the heavy favorite so rationale bias disclosed up front.

FIERCENESS might have the second fastest prep race ever. I only know of MENDELSSOHN’s being faster (-4.2). MENDELSSOHN was eased and finished last in his Derby (although he was coming in off of a 9pt. jump up).

Pletcher’s Derby record is riddled with fast horses with nice patterns who flopped. Here’s a rundown of all of his horses who came into the derby off of a top. The first number is their prior top. The second number is their last prep top. The third number is their Derby number followed by the amount of the new top in the last prep race and the result of the new top. T, P, O, X.

Effort distribution for Pletcher horses coming in off new tops
2010-2023 (x 2020)

TAPIT TRICE             4 | 1 | 5 3pt. Top | O
KINGSBARN              Â 5 | 3 | 13 2pt. Top | X
MO DONEGAL          Â Â 4.2 | 2.3 | 3.1 1.5pt. Top | P
KNOWN AGENDA          3.2 | 1.2 | 6.3 2pt. Top | X
SAINTHOOD        Â Â Â Â Â 8.2 | 6.3 | 7.2 2pt. Top | O
BOURBONIC       Â Â Â Â Â 10.2 | 4 | 8.3 6pt. Top | X
DYNAMIC ONE     Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 5 | 2 | 14.2 3pt. Top | X
SPINOFF                 4 | 2.1 | 7.2 2pt. Top | X
AUDIBLE               1.1 | -1 | 0 2pt. Top | P
VINO ROSSO            7.2 | -1 | 1.3 4pt. Top | O
ALWAYS DREAMING         9 | -0.2 | -1.2 9pt. Top | T
DESTIN.                 7 | -0.3 | 2 7pt. Top | O
MATERIALITY  Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.3 | -2 | 2 2pt. Top | X
DANZA                 7.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 5pt. Top | P
WE MISS ARTIE        11.1 | 3.2 | 5.1 8pt. Top | O
CHARMING KITTEN       6.3 | 2.1 | 6.1 4pt. Top | X
DEVIL MAY CARE        4.2 | 0.2 | 6 4pt. Top | X
DISCREETLY MINE     Â Â 4.3 | 3.2 | 11 1pt. Top | X

Top        1
Pair       3
Off        5
X          9

FIERCENESS will probably have to X to lose but it would not be unprecedented for a Pletcher horse to do that.

Tavasco - Interested in where you landed with TO Password after watching his stablemate almost pull off a big upset yesterday?

I\'m on Mystik Dan heavily in the Derby. I like the inside draw and I don\'t think the Southwest figure was because of the slop. I have futures on Track Phantom and Epic Ride but not really confident in those tickets. I can\'t discount the most talented horse in the field so I singled Fierceness on top of my exotics but don\'t have him anywhere underneath. He either wins by daylight or doesn\'t hit the board.

 Good luck to all!

#2 Sierra Leone is solid but the price a little short for me 9/2

#3 Mystic Dan ran a fast one in the mud 2 back, backed up a little last time. Contender at 17/1

#4 Catching Freedom is a little slower, but a great pattern to move forward. Every race has been better than the last, 8/1 currently seems light for a horse that needs to step up again today

#6 Just Steel ran a fast one at this track last November. Paired that his 2nd this year and ran a fast one last out. The son of Justify can get a big piece of this at 22/1 as long as Asmussen doesn\'t park him wide throughout.

#8 Just A Touch banged out 3 solid races this year, feels like more of an underneath horse than the winner 11/1....but didn\'t Mage do that last year??

#11 Forever Young ran 2 really good ones this year, can he be the first Japanese horse to win the Derby??  They struggled for years in the BC until they started winning some. At 6/1 not in love with the price at all but certainly a contender

#17 Fierceness the 2YO champion has the 2 fastest figures in this race comfortably.  If he fires his best shot at 3/1 or close to it, they are all running for minor awards.

Final Thoughts
#17 Most likely winner currently 3/1
#6 Best Upset chance if he gets a good trip currently 22-1

#2 and #11 are very solid but I just don\'t see the value

I would key #6 and hope he runs today.  Use him with the others listed in exotics.  Def worth a win bet.........and I\'m sure that some hopeless looking horse will somehow find his way into the Super

Picked the wrong horse but did cash a P3

Great weekend and as always, fantastic job JB with the numbers.

Watching the head on view, Forever Young’s jockey lost his whip when bumped by Sierra Leone also was Tyler Gaffalione sticking his arm into Forever Young’s jockey at the wire? Looks fishy

Biased because I bet Forever Young,  but does anyone else think Sierra Leone should of came down?  Rough weekend for me as I decided to key the 11 on top of 2,3,4,8 and now regretting not boxing on the tri and super.

Same thing Friday with Just FYI.
Congrats to TG, on the success in the Oaks.

Tried a new approach this year and kind of limited the hype and the FUD that goes a around alot this time of year.

No doubt.  Should of came down.

To: YesThatwouldbeme

See my PM to You

SL should have 100% come down there.  An absolute travesty (that didn\'t impact my tickets)

Does anyone think Forever Young wins of not for the contact?

between that and if the lost whip is also true, seems likely

Did Fierceness check up or just spit the bit out in the stretch?!

He also hopped/missed the break.  A brutal brutal trip.  He was easily the best in the race.  That horse has to be spent.  I’m amazed he had fight down the lane.

looked like he just had nothing when they straightened out for home

I saw a bad start too

He hopped ever so slightly

IMO it had zero to do with his performance

Great call
Congrats

Did not lose his whip.

I stand corrected but was that a little holding Tyler did near the finish line

Nice handicapping.  Hope you hit a nice ticket

Horse has no balls

6 furlongs in 1:11 and change is not that hot of a pace. The winner was a couple of lengths off that and won. Got a one wide rail trip the whole way around.  
Muth  would of had a good chance if allowed to run .

Will Fierceness ever win again? You would think nobody would let him lope along on the lead knowing he has absolutely no heart. Has anyone remember a horse that won so brilliantly and losses were so terrible?

Was definitely wondering if leaving him off all my tickets was being cute.

Saw an overhead drone shot of the stretch drive,  and cannot believe the stewards did not at least look at it. Twinspires.com does not show a head on replay and I am unable to find one tonight.

Forever Young seems to be knocked off stride for a couple of jumps, and on top of that the connections have not commented about the incident.  

Sour grapes for me I guess,  but I\'m sure I\'ll get over it. Feel bad for the connections. Tyler G.looked like Sonny Leon in the Lukas Classic laying all over the horse and seemed to give him a shove approaching the wire.

Fierceness was stuck outside a hot pace for a classic distance (46 and change) on a tiring track.  He had an easy time in the Florida Derby, this figured to be way different and it was (not past posting here, said this before the race).  Anyone close early folded except the winner.  Thanks to Thorograph, the “second tier” horses who were fastest showed up for the tri (except for Lukas’ horse).  

HP

Sierra Leone should have absolutely been disqualified and yes, Forever Young would have won.

FY had a brutal trip and IMO was certainly the best horse on the day, T O Password also had a brutal trip and ran extremely well. Hope the Japanese come back next year with a good one.

If Bob Baffert trained Sierra Leone do you think he would have been taken down? I vote yes!

If you want to go down that road,bafferts karmas a …

Looks like Catching Freedom is the only horse that ran a new top in the derby, the winner ran an \"off\" race and won due to the insane trip BHJ gave MD.
The other three paired up, and the bottom ten ran the worst race they ever ran.

Just like TG predicted. Pletcher had an awful weekend, even with Mindframe winning. He ran 4 points off his debut.

Finally where did Raging Torrent come from? 8 point new top. One trick pony or can he duplicate that and be a player in the sprint division?

its a 6 pt new top from a horse that debuted with an 8, which would lead to expectations that he should get to around 0 someday with normal development.  Hasn\'t had fast dirt to run on for almost 9 months.  Not anywhere near as shocking as the new top Chili Flag ran in the middle of his 5yr old year after having nearly 20 races of performance with very tight variance.

A few things. First, average development from 2 to 3 is 3 points. Yes, that 8 was early in the year, but precocious horses generally develop less (as discussed re Ways And Means vs Thorpedo Anna).

Second, that Chili Flag race was a BIG problem, and I marked it for review. The choices were either to have the top three (all Chad) run new tops, or have them run their tops and the rest of the race totally collapse, which would be extremely unusual for grass stake horses. Additionally, doing it the other way would have meant adding a lot compared to the other two grass routes (though one was an S Pace race).

There’s a discussion to be had about why so many Derby runners don’t run their races, which I suspect will come up in Preakness conversations. But just to kick things off, compare the times of the first Derby half mile and the last half, and see how the horses that were anywhere near that half mile fraction ran. MD did better than most, and he still ran 3 points off his top.

So Dan paired and thats about right. They had a plan and he was athletic enough to work the Trip.

Kenny was quoted somewhere as saying when they opened up he thought they were going to win by 5. Bodemeister looked the same way. Then those taxing fractions and pedigree set in. He was tired horse after the race. Bouncing up and down or not on tje Track today be dammed

As far as why horses don’t run there race in the Derby
My personal rabbit holes I went down after this Derby.
1) Is the testing more strict for the derby?
2) Carry more weight and a further distance?
3) Just a sensory overload for some of these herd animals?
4) Trainers pointing for one big effort instead of building a foundation?
5) Horses being over bred (Babies to babies) stamina and durability in the USA a thing of the past?
6) Oh and Pletcher never again!

Bottom line the race is an anomaly and the nut jobs we are live for that race and the big days.
Nurse more meds please.

PS
TO Password ran a hell of a race could only imagine if he won of two races.

Appreciate the additional color, but don\'t think any of that changes the original premise of my post, which is that the Chili Flag race result is far more shocking.

a 3yr old sprint horse (with early speed on a speed-favoring track for sprints) running a 6pt top 8 months removed from his top and likely preferred surface may not be \"average\", but is certainly something we see with more regularity than a 5yr old route horse with such a long history of tight performance range suddenly running such a big race.

Even if you end up slowing the race down, his relative performance to all the other horses in the race can\'t change, and at that point you are then making the argument that he is the only horse in that race who \"liked\" that (incredibly aberrant) surface and everyone else hated it so much that most of them backed up significantly.

The Chili Flag effort was much more difficult to predict prior to the race.

#6 made me chuckle. I read an article about speed figs and the derby. JB\'s comments led me to believe that TG was going to toss Fierceness and that the other guys were on Fierceness.

Was a little surprised that Fiercness would not be tossed on the Pletcher factor alone.

And about issue #1, does anyone pay attention to horses shipping from non HISA tracks to one\'s that are under there purview?