So knowing that only two horses have won the Derby coming off a number slower than a 3 ½ in this century, all of the LA Derby and Wood runners, the SA, Jeff Ruby and TB Derby winners are off the top of my tickets.
I\'m curious if anyone knows what that stat is for runners hitting the board over the last couple of decades. How slow is too slow?
Add Mandaloun to that list if you want to count Medina Spirit D.Q.
Good point though
Sophisticated Wild Ass Guess - 5
Assumes a max Jump up of 3 pts and a 2 is necessary to hit the board.
Quite a few candidates. Cull them by patterns with jump-up potential and small sample size (lightly raced) have greater potential for variance.
Lastly, use only one from each pace style.
When I get the energy I\'ll edit this post to list my short list. So only those interested will have to see it.
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Reflecting on Mage, last year whose race before the Derby caused me to toss him on the big day. I mistakenly explained that effort as a lack of stamina. So from the E/P-Type runners, I select #8 Just A Touch. Unless the Jockey Selection turns out to be a Tomato Can. I\'m hoping for Dettori. Believing his Blue Grass was compromised by Chad Brown\'s rabbit that day.
From arguably the P-Type runners I select #8 Endlessly. I see this one having the ideal running style to get into the super or #7 Encino Godolphin need I say more?
From the E-Type group, I\'m choosing #10 T O Password another who checks all my boxes except I don\'t think going to the lead is the best strategy if the pace is fast. A colt with only two career races may yet learn to rate. I also suspect the wiley Japanese may have learned attending a suicidal pace on the first Saturday in May is not productive. Note - Lonshots are because of the quality and quantity of doubt, which means no one knows how good this one is.
I expect a fast pace which is to the benefit of the deep closing S-Type group. This search is easy which of the contenders has consistently closed only to get near the lead too late at the shorter distances. My choice #7 Honor Marie. This well-rested fellow is my guess for who will be running best in the late stretch.
Wild Card - #18 Stronghold ignoring the West Coast entries would only result from a bias toward East of the Mississippi racing. Baffert\'s shadow obscures the other SoCal outfits. The expected race shape plays right into this one\'s experience chasing fast paces and hanging on with grit to get checks. The super is in his range I believe.