The track was fast? I think I need another cup of coffee. The sleep is still in my eyes.
The Bluegrass Beyer hasn\'t been announced yet. Maybe they\'re checking it twice like I am. Raw number comes up fast from my groggy point of view. 108 raw Beyer when accounting for the run-up.
If the track wasn\'t that fast, SIERRA LEONE moved forward ... a lot.
SIERRA LEONE has now lugged in three races in a row. Anything to be concerned about? Gaffalione says he\'s just playing around.
“As you can see, he made the lead leaning in, waiting around, playing,†Gaffalione said.
“I haven’t even gotten close to the bottom of him. Every time I think I’ve got him at top speed, he finds more,†said Gaffalione.
98 Beyer for Sierra Leone. Difficult day to make figures Beyer stated in a DRF article. But TG figure will be interesting as compared to Fierceness.
110 for Fierceness.
Feels like a Derby where these 2 take significant money. My mind initially is thinking both at 7-2 or lower. Forever Young under 10-1. And then after that we are looking at a mess of odds.
The problem with this idea of two horses going off 7-2 or lower (with Fierceness the favorite) is that hasn\'t happened since at least before 2000. 9 out of the last 24 runnings two horses have went off UNDER 5.00-1.
So I\'m not dialed in on every detail right now but the basic sketch for me at a guess of their off odds is:
Fierceness 5-2
Sierra Leone 9-2
Forever Young 7-1
Rest over 10-1
It is beyond early with a month to go. But never too early to start thinking about Derby as a distraction from the rest of our lives :)
I’ll be very surprised if they bet FY that heavily.
You may be right.
The future pool yesterday closed prior to the Wood, Blue Grass and SA Derby.
Fierceness 5-2
Sierra Leone 7-1
Forever Young 8-1
A few recent Japanese horses:
Derma was 7.80-1 last year.
Mandarin Hero was 17.47-1 last year.
Crown Pride in 2022 was 17.50-1.
Year of
Always Dreaming and Irish War Cry both under 5-1?
Richie I reread your post
I misread it.
FWIW - Just A Touch seems to be yesterday\'s news. What if the Bluegrass early pace had been :47.2 rather than :46.2. I don\'t think it is beyond the Chadster to have set things up for his winner.
With a month for Cox to teach his colt some patience, he will complicate the race for one of the top two contenders. i.e. he may go with fierceness or if they dawdle up front Sierra Leone may not catch them all.
A die-hard pace perspective.
Always Dreaming 4.70-1
Irish War Cry 4.80-1
The 2005 Derby is a similar scenario I feel like. Bellamy Road was coming in with a monster Beyer (120) compared to the rest and with a closer to the pace style. Afleet Alex was coming in from the OP road to the Derby but coming from further back as far as a running style. He won the Ark Derby by 8 lengths and had a 108 Beyer. This is a 12 point difference just like Fierceness and Sierra Leone.
2005
Bellamy Road, 2.60-1
Afleet Alex, 4.50-1.
I also think an inside post/post inside of other speed types could increase Fierceness odds a bit. The gamblers are just sharper these days even on the bigger days.
A recent Derby with potential similar off odds despite not a similar scenario would be the 2021 Derby.
Essential Quality, 2.90-1
Rock Your World, 4.70-1
He closed great, but the anchors were out on the rest of the field. Blowing by horses while running a :13 flat final fraction ..... let\'s hope the track was tiring.
He will be running at the end of the Derby, but there\'s just no getting around the fact that if Fierceness runs the best fig, he wins it. If Sierra Leone does, he still might not win it.
A month before the Derby, this is what I wrote about the potential odds:
Fierceness 5-2
Sierra Leone 9-2
Forever Young 7-1
Rest over 10-1
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Off Odds:
Fierceness, 3.21-1
Sierra Leona, 4.79-1
Forever Young 7.03-1
1 other horse under 10-1 (Catching Freedom)
The X world celebrating Aragona as a genius for saying 3-1 and 9-2 on the top 2 of course. Love the guy as a handicapper and ML guy but this isn\'t some miraculous work he did if I was this close a month out.
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On another note, Fierceness had an ideal trip mostly and was nowhere to finish 15th. Add him to the list of Todd\'s nowhere on Derby Day. Todd\'s horses ran pretty awful over the 2 days except the short priced allowance winner early yesterday. This wasn\'t unexpected as I set forth way in advance.
What I\'d like to hear is all the talking heads today, tomorrow and this week go back and review things they said in the time leading up to the race. I have folks on FanDuel who may have mentioned that my Pletcher posts may be \"overthinking\" things and that \"this is just a horse race\" and \"This horse should be a monster win bet because he towers over the field and it is obvious.\" Come on down and let\'s hear from them now about what a DUD Fierceness turned in and the money they surely lost. Matt B and Kurt H, I\'m looking at you among others. . . .
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Congrats to the McPeek barn. I went after Forever Young who had a tough start, wide trip, and bumped in the lane. Not to be but I was more than satisfied with the horse\'s effort.
Last, Great call by PonyBologna on the pick on the board. Hope you cashed Large!
Winner received a 100 beyer.
Reflecting back and it’s easy being a Monday QB.
Sierra Leone trained with another derby horse.
Fierceness training partner another horse with no guts that finished out of the money..
PLETCHER NEVER AGAIN!!
Always enjoy the conversation
Yes excellent call PonyBologna..
Also whoever made the post about the last decade winners needing at least a 3 prior to win.