They drew the race a couple of days ago, and the Two year old champ drew the outside in the 10 post. That race is hard to win from “out thereâ€, as Truman Capote stated in “ In Cold Bloodâ€.
The connections also have Bail Us Out in post 3 with Irad in the saddle. Does anyone think that Fierceness can rate, or does he have to commit to a forward position and most likely be 3-4 wide on both turns? It seems he may be a one trick pony and needs to run without cover, maybe he doesn’t like the dirt hitting him.
And what to make of the other Repole, is he there to play full back, ensuring that Johnny V gets to the rail? Hades looks like he will be on the lead from post 2, and the only other pace horse would be Seminole Chief out of post 6, and Fierceness , who will be wide if those other two leave from the gate.
At probably 1-5, due to his 2 year old figs, and the probable wide trip from the 10 post, and the record of horses from that post at that distance , and his two bad races , one was really bad, and his last wasn’t very inspiring either, Fierceness won’t be in my top slot. His top beats all these horses , but at the odds and other disadvantages, just going to wish the connections luck.
Waiting to see the figs for the race, but another feeling I have is it might be a replay of the Holy bull, slow pace and bunched field, and trip is going to matter.
So Hades to wire them?
Another great post Roman. Love the In Cold Blood reference rather ironic that Robert Blake played one of the killers in the movie.
I am in Vegas and have friends in town so won\'t be able to dive into the race until Thursday.
However, every year I put in $100 to play futures as Vegas can give you some good prices (William Hill and Circa) Right now I have two losers already in Speak Easy and Born Noble. Giving up on Pletcher as last year I had Tapit Trice at 125-1. I do have Hades at 300-1 thanks to Ajkreider and also Conquest Warrior at 100-1 but right now he is slow and has 0 points so need a much improved effort. Since I was all in on Catching Freedom I checked his odds on Friday and he was 18-1 at WH and 50-1 at Circa so I grabbed some at Circa.
I think your analysis is spot on but still skeptical on Hades. Obscure breeding and Orseno really has disappeared on the big stage since he won the Preakness with Red Bullet for Stronach.
Awaiting the figs as well, but not sure how much they\'ll help for this race. Both The FOY and Holy Bull were slow paced. We don\'t know if the Tampa Derby flattered those in here, since that was slow-paced too. At least we know Fierceness can be fast.
Hades keeps drawing great, and as you say, the 10 hole is death in this race.
I suspect the numbers will show Frankie\'s Empire ran a very competitive fig last out - only a bit lighter, but wider than Dornoch. Was running at the end. Probably only a modest move forward, so more room for improvement. Might get lost on the tote, and is my play pending the sheets.
Good string that encompasses the two biggest decisions of what to do in this race with Fierceness and Hades.
Toss them both from the win spot? And then where do you go?
Or stand with one of them?
I\'m imagining Hades at 5-2 (maybe a touch lower) and Fierceness more like 8-5? May be way off here.
Conquest Warrior will be the third choice.
And then after that it is a bit of a mess of how the public bets the race.
On the Hades front, I watched his replays yesterday. I was the first one to after the Holy Bull to yell SLOW Pace, front running score and he is a bet against moving ahead. But after watching his replays I don\'t feel that way and why I\'m confident he is an obvious 2nd choice.
I haven\'t finished looking at the race completely so not much else to add here. But I think the questions I posed above are how you approach the race.
Here is my take of the “off odds†for the Florida Derby. These are not “fair odds†but rather what I think the public will do in terms of the betting. When the gates open, my guess is that Fierceness will be around even money. The public seems to love Conquest Warrior as he went off a couple of points lower than Hades did in the last future pool - seems to be the wise guy horse. I have him at 5/2. I estimate that Hades will be a couple of ticks behind at 7/2 or so. Everybody else will be double digits.
I agree that Conquest Warrior is a horse the public loves. I\'ve read and seen public handicappers saying very positive things as a Kentucky Derby type horse. I have two friends that think Shug has the real deal here. But in this spot, I think he goes as 3rd choice just behind Hades in part b/c of the perceived pace scenario that looks favorable to Hades. It will be interesting to see how this plays out both on the tote board and on the track as there are some interesting alternatives to consider if against the top 3.
A few trainer stats on some late races at GP for those that are interested:
Conquest Warrior, Florida Derby: Shug when Switching to Off Lasix is 6 for 82 last 5 years (6 for 80 in stakes). And only 2 wins in that category all of 2023. None this year but two close 2nd\'s. This doesn\'t sway me a whole lot but the Off Lasix thing is such an issue to consider these days as all know around here.
Gun Song, Florida Oaks: Mark Hennig is 0 for 16 the past 5 years when switching to Off Lasix. This one is meaningful and makes this one a Toss for me in the win spot.
La Mehana (Fr), The Orchid Stakes: Clement is 2 for 22 the past 5 years with Foreign Shippers that start in Turf Stakes races. He is 1 for 6 when you narrow that to Graded Stakes. The one winner was Amazing Grace in the Orchid Stakes last year at 6-5 with Joel Rosario aboard (aboard Le Mehana Sat). Amazing Grace was coming in off a near identical layoff. In her last at Longchamp in Sept (a Group 1), La Mehana did hit the front after tracking the leaders closely throughout before being passed by the top 2. I\'ll be curious how TG views this one compared to this field.
First pass looking at the numbers:
If everyone runs back to their last, given the posts, Hades wins again.
But I think all of the top three should move forward. Fierceness ran like a horse that needed a race. Conquest Warrior improved in a paid workout. Hades raced a bit greenly going 2 turns the first time. Plenty of time off. Wouldn\'t be surprised if any of these move forward a couple of points.
Disappointed with Frankie\'s number. But if he settles on the rail he\'s in range for a piece. Neither he nor Grand Mo have gone back. GMF fits on figs and is inside the two favorites, but 3 weeks is a quick turnaround. Those connections sure are game with this horse.
Hades number seems a bit light. No way he was 2 paths inside Fierceness all the way around the far turn. But don\'t think it makes a handicapping difference.
Edit: The thoropattern is interesting, in that, of the favorites, Frankie, Hades, and Grand Mo are the most likely to run a top. They\'re also the three inside horses. That tri would pay nicely.
Conquest Warrior. I think his sheet says explosive. 3-1 isn’t much of a bargain.
Agree, very nice pattern, and if you match it to what he has done visually, he is going to get better no doubt.
Any concerns about Shug\'s uninspiring numbers when his horses come off Lasix
It might just be a bias from losing so much, but it seems horses coming off lasix in Florida tend to under perform. The connections obviously have derby fever and are shooting to get into the field, so would imagine that Shug has him primed since he has 0 points for the KY Derby. He looks like he will run all day so the distance shouldn\'t be an issue, and should get a nice stalking trip.
For years I\'ve passed on Florida Derby winners in the Ky Derby because I thought that Gulfstream\'s main track had/has a bias against closers. Without getting into a statistical study I just figured closers coming from FL were better bets than frontrunning winners shipping to KY. C/B Calif speed trumps FL speed or whatever, even though some good ones completed that double.
After watching Conquest Warrior\'s two Gulfstream races when he came from the back to dominant wins while appearing to be running formful and within himself. I just thought he had so much more energy. I imagine Ortiz will not give away the race in the first 1/2 mile. So with a similar finish from a mid-pack position, it will take a special effort by another to beat him.
At this stage of development and competition, it looks to me like the only horse that can win without a new top would be Fierceness (Note - I read he is working like a monster)
I\'m gonna pass on Hades in the top spot. He could get outrun early, which I don\'t think helps him win, or set a crawling Holy Bull like pace which I also don\'t think helps his winning chances. I don\'t know how he\'ll respond to a legit pace.
I like City of Light.
The questionable form and condition of Fierceness makes the race playable for the bold.
The three top choices look tough in here and I can only see Frankie\'s Empire crashing the party with the good PP draw. However, I have serious questions about him getting the 1 1/8.
Both Fierceness and Conquest Warrior have had issues at the start so that is a concern for both. This race will probably be a pass for me.
As always good luck to all.
Roman, I have come to the conclusion that Fierceness will park in this race. The on again off again pattern as well as his sensational works since the Holy Bull suggests he could run big.
The draw of course did him no favors but I think that will be negated (at least as far as Hades goes) by the 6 lb shift in weights from the Holy Bull.
Pletcher did have Forte win last year from post 11, but he ran from off the pace.
If Johnny V. can get him to the front without going too wide, he should run big. The rumor mill had Fierceness working well before the Holy Bull also, and would of liked to see him sit a little off his workmate in his last work just in case he needs to rate. But I think they didn\'t because the connections know he needs a clean run to run his best.
Good luck to all, looks like i just might play a small exacta boxing Hades & Conquest Warrior, and maybe keying those two in tri\'s and supers, pick3/4/5\'s.
First the Arkansas Derby. Muth\'s race looked pretty darn good to me at first glance. Then I saw the Florida Derby went a second faster almost all the way.
UAE Derby 6 mos of development even south of the equator appears worth 10 lbs.
The Japanese winner may as well stay home this year.
Ushba Tesoro/Senor Buscado Omni pays 8/1. Those two seem to always run their race.
Who the hell was the freak \"Laurel River\" who Crushed that field
I hope you already have a ticket on Fierceness I don\'t see any chance of getting any better odds.
Yes
3 more preps. 3 more Derby \"winners.\"
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Haven\'t the foggiest idea of what Fierceness will do in the Derby.
Should be a significant new top for him, given what they ran in the Ghostzapper. Fastest horse going into the Derby for a while.
Race of the year could be the Preakness. Whoever wins in Kentucky might have to face Nysos, Muth, Knightsbridge, and Mindframe as fresh shooters. Pat Day mile good be a banger too.
110 Beyer for Fierceness…might be highest prep Beyer since Bellamy Road’s 120 in 2005 wood
Trip note courtesy of Pete Aiello.
The long version:
\"FIERCENESS was away perfectly\"
\"FIERCENESS; he\'s on the accelerator, is Johnny V\"
\"Johnny V, still sitting pretty on FIERCENESS, who tries to sneak away ... and FIERCENESS, he is getting away, he\'s now 4 in front\"
\"FIERCENESS is putting on a show in Hallendale today\"
\"FIERCENESS ... the real FIERCENESS ... he\'s crushing them in the Florida Derby\"
\"FIERCENESS geared down, and on his way to Louisville\"
\"FIERCENESS authoritavitly in the Florida Derby\"
The short version:
\"HE NEVER HAD A THREAT!\"
LOL. That was great. I enjoyed that call.
Ultra impressive, but do not know what to make of the result. Was that field that bad or was Fierceness that good? Unbelievable that he got to the front so easy, but after 2 scratches and starting from the 8 hole, he made even money look like stealing kids Easter candy.
He looked like Kingsbarn in last years LA Derby.
Happy Easter
God Bless