I am looking at history repeating itself in this FOY. Expecting Speak Easy to scratch and run on Friday. That should be a good race between him and Conquest Warrior both could be heard from in Florida Derby.
Last year Forte came off of his Juvenile win and absolutely parked in this race last year winning by 4 1/2. Mage coming off his maiden win on Pegasus day had an absolutely horrendous trip , hit the gate at start to come away last, 5 wide around first turn and checked in stretch. Still ran a good fourth behind Forte and Rocket Can. I will take a cold exacta, Locked/Victory Avenue.
Great card and weather looks like it will cooperate. Good Luck to all!
Speak Easy is a go for FOY, so since I have him in futures at 125-1 , will hope he runs well. I thought it was to much to soon for Mage last year but hope this one can duplicate what he did last year.
I wonder what that means for Locked. Is he in there to set up the speed for Locked to make a late run, or is Locked not ready to win & Pletcher feels Speak Easy is his best shot at winning the FOY?
Good luck AP, nice price. Has a huge shot, and probably one of the most promising east coast based horses.
I don\'t think Locked needed Speak Easy in there to get an honest pace. This race is loaded with speed and sets up well for Locked. I wanted Speak Easy to enter in the Friday race but this shows confidence in Speak Easy (I hope) I think he elected to run in this race because he drew the rail. First turn comes up so fast at GP 1 1/16 and those outside are definitely going to be compromised.
I thought the same thing about the one hole. See him setting the pace.
Speak Easy is an underlay candidate here, especially if the public plays the beyers. TG has a much more reasonable number (even if I think JB still has that race too fast).
Locked lays over this field, but Real Macho is the value - even off of the big jump up. Maybe he\'s a miler, but you\'ll get paid for the risk.
I appreciate the posters in this thread for solving the FOY puzzle. Thanks!
I need some help. I began with race 1 and could not get past it. Would someone solve that race for me? Currently, I\'m leaning toward the Divisidero colt #12 De La Cruz and/or #14 Gallic Charm.
Back to the FOY - I can see going past the race\'s early morning favorite Dornuch as he is a route pace setter up against a couple of speed ball (to-date) sprinters and that spells trouble for one or the other.
Lastly, dangerous trainer Antonio Sano seems to be over-confident about his Vino Rosso colt #9 Dancing Groom. Unless they are few who go kamikaze :21 & :44 early and we get a meltdown.
Looks like an exciting race, generally a pretty smart crowd @ GP so getting an overlay may prove difficult in this one.
What\'s hard about handicapping a maiden race which includes first timers and also horses that have run on three surfaces?!
If Steadfast Resolve draws in, he could be dangerous. Came running late in the last. Going farther here, but has been around two turns
The firster in the 12 hole looks interesting at a big price. Clemente with Tyler up. By Divisidero.
Like both your selections here as well as ajkreider\'s #13. Clement\'s horse has to be the play at anywhere near his ML. I would add the #11 Artempus who ran in the faster of the split Jan 20th maiden race. The race went 3 lengths faster than the Steadfast Resolve race with quicker fractions but Resolve definitely had a brutal trip. Obscure trainer of Artempus is worrisome though.
It\'s Linesman for me. This horse was buried on the rail and never had a chance.
In the second are there any thoughts on Tapakena? I had him racing against a speed bias on 1/27. The #1 Big City was with the bias.
Thanks for your thoughts, I had overlooked Steadfast Reserve. I see Jose Ortiz keeps the mount. After watching the replay video, If he could have stayed in the same zip code as the others early last out he probably wouldn\'t be eligible this Saturday.
I made plenty on Divisidero, before the other bettors realized he was the real deal. Durable consistent multiple grade one winner. His get could be anything but the pedigree sure shouts turf routes.
As for AE\'s drawing in if the Chadster\'s #14 Gallic Charm gets in be sure to eyeball a video of his first race @ Tampa. He went off as the 7/5 favorite. Immediately took the lead through the first call and then got passed by eight competitors (all but one) then in the home stretch came flying to re-pass all of them but two? A very unusual trip. He\'ll get a Jockey upgrade if he draws in Sat.
Thank you for your thoughts also. Artempis may get caught by one of the contenders learning to utilize their stamina but he has the advantage of pace setting speed thereby avoidance of compromising trouble. At 8/1 a definite use for me.
At this point I\'m trending to a 6 x 2 x 2 pick three.
Good Luck!
I like that pick. Big City will clue us in on how good that maiden race was. Two from that ran back and went 1/2 ahead of a nice Repole horse - the rest of the field was 10+ back.
TG gave Big City a nice fig for a show horse in a maiden. I\'m betting against with your horse, but of he wins easily, I\'ll have to reassess the two in the FOY.
The #2 Pletcher will take some money. Don\'t love the layoffs, and hasn\'t gotten back to his debut. But can\'t leave him off if there\'s a price.
I humbly submit my dissertation on GOT SUNNY in Race 1 at GP on Saturday. To summarize, I think his odds hold, and maybe even drift higher and I think he has a big shot here. I will single on a P5 ticket and use with a couple of others on another - read on if you want to see why I think that.
In race 1, I think I am going to lean on GOT SUNNY (15/1) pretty hard. In his debut going a mile on the turf at GP for Gargan, he did not break all that smartly from the five hole (which I will forgive given it was his first race). He was immediately mugged by the horse just to his outside and he checked multiple times - not an auspicious beginning to a career. Going into the first turn, the only horse in the 12 deep field that was behind him was the horse that caused his interference. Bravo got him to the rail early as he was fairly far behind, but on the back side he brought him outside and encountered a bit of traffic. He ended up going 4 wide into the far turn and then was swung at least 8 wide before they straightened out for the stretch as horses stacked up coming out of the bend. It looked like he was running hard, but he was so wide he really did not make up any ground on anyone. TG indicates he was 4 wide, so they got a fairly accurate description of how wide he was into the turn, but the DRF comment just makes mention of his early trouble, so his actual running line does not look very good. He passed some tiring back markers late to finish 8th by almost 10 lengths. Given it was his debut, he had some trouble, and how wide he ended up, I would expect improvement - perhaps significant improvement second out. He will have to improve to win this, but perhaps not as significantly as it might seem on the surface as his raw TG number is better than 1/3 of the field and not that far off most of the others. He has had 56 days off since that January 6 debut and the race he comes out of is very live in my opinion. Of the first five finishers in that race, four have come back to run and they all have won. For the other six, one finished 2nd, one ran 4th, two ran 5th, one virtually pulled up, and one has not yet come back. This definitely looks like a key race to me and most of the finishers out of that race improved their performance next time out. Gargan hits at about 12% second out and I do like that not only is this is his second start overall but also his second start around two turns as debuting around two turns is tough, even on the grass. Got Sunny should gain something from the experience. It also seems like much of the tougher competition is stuck on the outside or mired on the AE, so they are going to have to work out trips or will not even be able to compete. Certainly, there are some negatives as naysayers would point out that he took over a month to record a workout after his last race and only has two works coming back into this one, that he would need to improve in order to even hit the board, and that he ran his first quarter last time in 13 and a half seconds so if he doesn\'t break better today, then he\'s going to get shuffled back in traffic, that he was 60/1 in debut so how could he be any good, and finally, he ran fairly slow last time because he is fairly slow and what you see is what you will get. Of course, those arguments could all be valid but that\'s why you\'re getting double digit odds here, but I think he\'s going to improve. I suspect he will be closer to the lead, especially if he breaks well. In his debut after his slow, troubled first quarter, he ran the next 4f in 46.56. Is it going to be enough to win? I\'m not sure but I think it\'s worth the risk as I think he ran better than it looks on paper and he should improve this time out. On big days like this I often press a little harder, so my plan is to bet two early P5 tickets - one with a single of the 3, Got Sunny in the first race and the other spreading a bit deeper. I have not really handicapped the last four races in the sequence yet so I\'m not sure how deep I would go in any of the other legs and I will let my handicapping determine the rest of the sequence.
What are your thoughts on the 2nd and 3rd? I agree that the 1st race will be deep.
I like Tapakena also. Thank you for sharing your thoughts on the first race Tavasco. What a betting race and great points by all on why they liked their horses. I am going 6 deep also in the first.
Looks like a sloppy track for the Gotham. Trivia question who was the last horse to pull off a Gotham, Derby Double? I was shocked by this.
I was going to say never at first, but I think Secretariat won the Gotham - I am pretty sure he won the Derby. :) I can\'t remember anyone else - maybe Funny Cide won the Gotham but don\'t remember - I know he ran second to Empire Maker in the Wood, but don\'t remember his other preps - so as NY bred maybe???
I agree with you on Big Red
Race #2
I expect to use #1 Big City & 3 Tapakena in the pic 3,
#8 Jefferson Street #4 Howard Wolowitz in doubles with 1st race horses which is looking more like only 4 or 5 horses
Race #3
#8 Cugino & #5 Abrumar in the pic 3.
ebx #3 Kiro & #7 Royal Majesty, #6 Silent Heart in an questionable insurance play.
After I sleep on it I may end up Just playing the Divisidero Colt to win in race #1, especially after just discovering that Divisidero also sired Abrumar.
At this point a lot hinges on how many AE\'s draw in? They all seem live and races 2 & 3 look more competitive to me than they did earlier.
I also like this horse. This horse has excellent action for the turf. My only concern is he raced on 1/6 and didn\'t work again until 2/16. Any thoughts on that?
Thank you for the info. I might use the #6 and #2 along with the #1 & #3 in the second race. The third race came up tough for me.
Well done gentlemen! Big Red is correct over 50 years ago
According to Dave Grening on Twitter, Locked and Victory Avenue are out.
Very frustrating when there’s 5 furlong sprinters in a route and Saffie Joseph gets 25 50 to the half.
Not sure what happened. Irad just got of the ambulance in tears. Speak Easy scratched
It may be that a Derby contender develops out of this years FOY but I don\'t think it will be any of the ones who ran today. My first impression - Unimpressive!
Very!
It sure wasn\'t impressive visually. Probably gets an ok number.
Beyer gave it an 88, which is 2 points slower than the Holy Bull - which was almost 2.5 seconds slower than the FOY by the clock. Dornoch was also a point heavier.
The Devona Dale went the mile about .2 seconds faster than Real Macho and Born Noble did on HB day, so I don\'t see how they could make things that much slower for this race.
Seems like the better comp is the Hooper runners, who ran back yesterday, about .7 quicker. The FOY time stacks up ok compared to National Treasure\'s.
I believe Beyer made the Holy Bull faster. Initially they gave the winner an 87 beyer, than adjusted it to a 90 , if I am remembering correctly.
What about the place horse who apparently jumped up 5-7 points. Do we put owners Vincent Stella and Trainer Eneil Cordero on the usual suspects list? Or god forbid, is his TG sheet misleading? In retrospect I\'m surprised I didn\'t read between the #\'s.
I understand Real Macho\'s non effort it looks like a bounce which is not unreasonable albeit a disappointment to many of us.
The other two Frankies Empire and Dancing Groom could have thrown any type of race based on their previous efforts. So nothing hard to believe there.
The winner went exactly as one would expect.
Congrats to those who cashed a vertical bet!
From a pure handicapping angle how can you take that race or number serious?
The horse did what he was supposed to do with his ears pricked the whole way.
A paid workout.
GL