Ask the Experts

General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: ajkreider on December 30, 2023, 05:44:38 PM

Title: Born Noble
Post by: ajkreider on December 30, 2023, 05:44:38 PM
Since it\'s never too early to talk Derby hopefuls  . . .

Born Noble was a facile winner today.  Not that long ago, a first start this late in the game was a disqualifier, but no more.  

Time was nothing to write home about,1:24.27, but the track was tiring.  The older G2 winner O\'Conner went 1 1/16th in 1:43:80. The kicker is that the BN attended the sub-:46 pace.  The other dirt routes didn\'t go under :47, and the winners in those came from farther back.  4-wide on the turn, will get a better fig on TG.

A Constitution out of a Ghostzapper,classic distance is in range.  Maybe worth a spin early.
Title: Re: Born Noble
Post by: TGJB on December 30, 2023, 05:53:41 PM
Facile?
Title: Re: Born Noble
Post by: ajkreider on December 30, 2023, 06:15:30 PM
Yeah, despite nearly putting himself in the fence, I\'d say it was still relatively effortless.

Got a nice Beyer (93).  We shall see.
Title: Re: Born Noble
Post by: Gary Irish on December 31, 2023, 07:24:41 AM
Coincidentally, Born Noble has Rokeby Rose as his fourth dam, the same as the Ft Lauderdale winner, Main Event. After that, the similarity ends.

Rokeby Rose (by Tom Rolfe) was the dam of $3M earner Silverbulletday.
Title: Re: Born Noble
Post by: ajkreider on January 01, 2024, 06:48:10 PM
The whole bottom of the pedigree is interesting, with the BC Turf winner Prized in there.  RR won the Flower Bowl. Lion Heart didn\'t sire a ton, but did get his own BC Turf winner in Dangerous Midge.  And it\'s not like Ghostzapper hasn\'t had success as a route turf damsire (Up to the Mark). Wouldn\'t be shocked to see him on that surface at some point.

But, after his lone 7F triumph, he\'s now 14-1 to win the Derby.  Anyone know how to set up a bookmaking shop?
Title: Re: Born Noble
Post by: apindy62 on January 02, 2024, 07:22:55 AM
Would you bet him at 100-1? I did for pizza money at WH in Las Vegas.
Title: Re: Born Noble
Post by: TGJB on January 04, 2024, 08:57:01 AM
Pop quizâ€" Beyer 93, TG 4. What do you think Jake gave him?
Title: Re: Born Noble
Post by: TGJB on January 04, 2024, 11:07:31 AM
Answer… 15.
Title: Re: Born Noble
Post by: ajkreider on January 04, 2024, 06:26:41 PM
Yeah, I don\'t get it.

Equibase also has that maiden race (79) a lot slower than both the one-turn Rampart (92) and the two-turn Harlan\'s Holiday (114!), and they don\'t do weight.

Maybe they and Rags have the track slowing down a lot? Not sure how they\'d get there, since the interim races were turf or all weather.

Another young horse worth looking at from GP last weekend is the gelding Hades.  Ran a good 7F time at a great closing fraction. Probably got a better number than BN or the Mucho Macho Man winner.
Title: Re: Born Noble
Post by: Roman on January 04, 2024, 09:16:16 PM
Baffert’s colt Nysos has an interesting pedigree, no inbreeding in the last five crosses, with some monsters on the page, and looks like a freak. Wonder if he will be on the derby trail, and handed over to Yakteen. Haven’t heard anything about him and his future, but he is good one.
Title: Re: Born Noble
Post by: apindy62 on January 05, 2024, 04:57:19 AM
FYI, here in Vegas Nysos 18-1, Hades 300-1
Title: Re: Born Noble
Post by: apindy62 on January 05, 2024, 05:15:51 AM
He is a freak two unbelievable races to start career. He continues to work well, can\'t wait to see his next start.
Title: Re: Born Noble
Post by: Michael D. on January 06, 2024, 10:05:14 AM
ajkreider Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> Maybe they and Rags have the track slowing down a
> lot? Not sure how they\'d get there, since the
> interim races were turf or all weather.


It\'s very unlikely Ragozin has the track slowing down.
Title: Re: Born Noble
Post by: Michael D. on January 06, 2024, 10:48:50 AM
ajkreider Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> Another young horse worth looking at from GP last
> weekend is the gelding Hades.  Ran a good 7F time
> at a great closing fraction. Probably got a better
> number than BN or the Mucho Macho Man winner.


What day did Hades run?
Title: Re: Born Noble
Post by: ajkreider on January 06, 2024, 12:31:27 PM
Sunday. The MMM went Monday, and BN ran Saturday.

The Sunday races on dirt were all maidens, so hard to get a read on the quality. His race was state breds, but against winners, at least.

Frankly, I thought Resilience on the undercard ran better than the MMM winner, and did it going two turns.  Looking at some of the figs from the Juvy and recent races, there appears to be some talent in this crop.
Title: Re: Born Noble
Post by: TGJB on January 06, 2024, 05:39:25 PM
Michael, that’s funny for two reasons, and right for three.
Title: Re: Born Noble
Post by: ajkreider on January 07, 2024, 08:04:01 AM
Looking for some bombs.  What do they have for Resilience?

Took 4 tries to break the maiden but ran into a couple of good horses.  Was the only other one running at the end when Nash freaked. Before that was closing on the now multiple graded stakes placed Stronghold.  

Into Mischief out of a Smart Strike mare, looks like he wants more distance. Mott is on a roll.
Title: Re: Born Noble
Post by: Michael D. on January 07, 2024, 09:06:53 AM
ajkreider Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Sunday. The MMM went Monday, and BN ran Saturday.
>
> The Sunday races on dirt were all maidens, so hard
> to get a read on the quality. His race was state
> breds, but against winners, at least.
>
> Frankly, I thought Resilience on the undercard ran
> better than the MMM winner, and did it going two
> turns.  Looking at some of the figs from the Juvy
> and recent races, there appears to be some talent
> in this crop.


re Hades -

Sire Awesome Slew - good going 2 turns, down to a negative 3 going 7f. There are some brilliant speed influences below Quality Road on bottom. On the grainy replay it looks like he\'s got a nice stride. And yes, he finished very nicely. Great call by Aiello btw.
Title: Re: Born Noble
Post by: apindy62 on January 08, 2024, 04:35:19 AM
William Hill has him at 100-1 while Circa has him at 250-1.No problem if you want me to place a bet for you. Either I can mail you a hard copy and/or bet it off my app and send you photo.

I love love Smart Strike as a sire as his progeny can run on anything although I owned a Smart Strike and McLaughlin refused to run him on dirt. The only time he did was an off the turf where he ran a good second in a small field.