TG - Wanted to follow up on a post on the old board about how your figures are adjusted for track variants and the possibility that some horses are able to put out their best effort (all other factors being nominal) on only a certain kind of track.
As an example, last year\'s derby was run over a track that many referred to as an \"airport tarmac\" that was hard and punishing, much like Gulfstream can become during extended dry periods. Monarchos ran his best races at GP that spring, threw in on OK effort over a mushier AQU surface, and then ran a great one to win the derby. Hmmmmm, what do you know, the runner up (IInk) also ran his best race in GP earlier that spring.
I\'m not trying to suggest that this type of information be used as a sole determinant in handicapping, but in races where you have several contenders, this may help separate some of them.
I think this was asked previously and I can\'t remember the answer, but would it be at all possible for you to give information about how your figure was adjusted based on the track condition?
For instance, races run on fast tracks (I mean time wise, not just because the track condition says \"fast\") give you faster raw numbers that TG then adjusts upwards based on the variant for that day. I can understand the proprietary need to protect what the actual adjustment for that day was, but do you think it may be possible to at least give an up or down arrow to indicate whether the raw number was adjusted up or down to come at the actual figure?
The idea being, if you can isolate horses that are usually only capable of their best effort over a fast,dry track, you may be able to throw them out in the case where the track is still labeled fast, but may be a little moist. And the opposite for those who run well on slower tracks. I may be wrong, but I\'m thinking a study of this would yield some interesting results....
Ernie Dahlman(who doesn\'t believe in patterns)does something like this when he handicaps. It\'s an interesting idea, but one I don\'t want to do now- I don\'t want to clutter up the page. It definitely is something I would consider for the side product we\'ve been talking about for a long time, if we ever get around to it. I have no idea what a study of this would show, but I don\'t dismiss this out of hand. For example, horses who run well on super fast frozen tracks usually run well on grass, and vice versa .