http://www.drf.com/bc/2004/classic/classic.html#story2
Training problem eh? \"Just not himself,\" says Dutrow. I am shocked. HP
Its sad to say, but these were my first thoughts as well...\"Yeah, right, that\'s the reason...smirk, smirk!\"
Usually I get upset when people start making allegations...but this article is incredible, especially after reading some of the posts here lately about guys who will skip the BC.
There is nothing...wrong...with the horse...but he just...isn\'t right. The article talks about how he \"didn\'t spike a fever\" or \"didn\'t miss an oat.\" He doesn\'t say that the horse wouldn\'t be competitive or over his head, and he can\'t give ONE specific problem with the horse, and he spends time detailing the fact that the horse is in training and not suffering any soundness problem. Sounds like a guy who\'s trying to have it both ways: he wants to bail on the BC (and the scrutiny there) without damaging the long term value of the horse or the public\'s perception of his abilities.
So after the BC, instead of having to talk about bad feet or a virus, he can just say, \"he didn\'t seem quite right but now he\'s ready to go!\" and make it seem like skipping the BC was \"just one of those things.\" If Dutrow wants to use these quotes for the post-BC interviews I hope he\'ll pay my royalty fee.
HP
I propose we do something for these poor trainers who have horses that are\"not just right\" or may not want to take on tough horses at tracks they may not care for.
Let\'s run the \"TROPICANA STAKES\" at 6f on the undercard. We\'ll invite SIGHTSEEK, THUNDERELLO, SAINT LIAM, and SHAKE YOU DOWN.
Anyone else we should invite??
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Here\'s my question. I have been under the opinion that NYRA was always one of the strictest places as far as regulating drug stuff.
Obviously from the recent comments this is just not so.
How did it come to pass that NYRA seems to suddenly be \"the wild west\" regarding enhancing performance?
NYRA at Saratoga(aided by state troopers/investigators) is the toughest New York venue on juice guys for many years. Not so at Aqueduct and Belmont.
Anyone notice Labocetta Jr quietly has horses running lights out on and off for the past year or so.Maybe he\'s got the NUTRITION PROGRAM too.
Actually I don\'t think the New York circuit is \"the wild West.\" I think there are a few trainers on each circuit who are suspect. I can\'t say NY is particularly bad.
On a side note, whatever Scott Lake is pulling elsewhere, he ain\'t pulling it in New York. It\'s been noted in other posts on this subject that these guys seem to be \"state specific\" in the sense that they restrict their voodoo geographically, and when they ship out of the voodoo zone, the hoodoo that they do declines.
HP
The problem has been that there either has been no way to catch these guys with drug testing, or that racing doesn\'t want the scandal (or expense) of catching them. What does work is suveillance/detention barns, which is why a lot of horses haven\'t run well at the BC (and I\'m not talking about winning, I\'m talking about running their numbers). Evidently the barn area at Saratoga is such that SOME guys can\'t do things they do elsewhere.
As far as the industry goes, the perfect solution is something that makes the problem go away without catching someone and causing a scandal. Prevention-- like 24 hour in advance detention barns across the board-- could end up being the way to go. Another thing could be listing a veternarian of record who is accountable, just as the trainer is. There are a couple of vets (and one in particular) who are doing the work for a lot of \"move-up\" trainers.
And you can add Peace Rules to that list. I predict many more will be added-- as happened last year.
I heard it is very contagious in certain barns and that some more top horses are likely to catch it prior to the BC and that some that do compete in the BC may even display symptoms during the races because of increased susceptibility without their normal meds.
Chris
I think you guys get a little carried away with all this drug talk. Seems like whoever gets hot at the time, he must be using something. Just like baseball players must be using the good Sh*t, to hit all those home runs. You all say certain trainers don\'t want to go to the big dance cause they might not get to use their good meds. So, you all are saying that Jeff M. or Cole N. or R. Dutrow and whoever else you all think are using, don\'t win the KY Derby or BC races cause theres too many people watching them right?? That\'s just silly maybe they don\'t have good enough horses to go. I wonder, were people saying this about Bob B. when he was on fire in the late 90\'s??? These horses that are dropping out, were they that good in the first place to win the BC races??? Ask your self that first before popping off.
Kev,
You are correct in that we are casting a wide net and a lot of \"dolphins are probably getting caught in with the tuna\" but until racing cleans up its act, every good performance or successful performer will be under suspicion.
It\'s unfortunate but it\'s true.
The sad part is that most of the players are relatively \"clean\" and if they would pull together they could get it under control and level the playing field for everybody. The rumblings have started but there is still a long way to go.
Chris
It is a bit of a telling sign about the condition of the sport of horse racing, when a posting about who ISN\'T going to the BC and why generates 30 responses and tons of interest. But a thread about who IS going generates almost none.........
Anyone want to give me odds on Ghostzapper
a) Showing Up
b) Running a number within 3 points of his last two
Catalin
Why wouldn\'t he show up?
He is going to be favorite or second favorite to win the richest race in North America.
Kev,
The trainers you mention all have horses that are FAST ENOUGH to go. Why aren\'t they going? You don\'t find Dutrow statements on Saint Liam bizarre? Can you explain Frankel\'s dismal performance in the BCup nearly EVERY YEAR with horses that figure to win? It\'s just a coincidence that his horses flop on the big day? Where\'s Shuman/Gill with their horses that pop negative numbers all year long? Come on.
If it isn\'t drugs, what do you attribute it to? A seasonal thing that affects their barns EVERY YEAR? Sorry, but at least some of these guys are guilty and BCup does highlight the phenomenon. HP
1) Why wouldn\'t he show up?
See Peace Rules, Sightseek
2) Why wouldn\'t he run his #?
See Sightseek(2003), You, Alderbaran, Heat Haze, Medaglia D\'oro (2002), Denon, etc.
You mean those Negative Threes Sightseek was running at Belmont Park on a BUM ANKLE were chemicaly enhanced???
>I wonder, were people saying this about Bob B. when he was on fire in the late 90\'s???
Go back and look at Bafferts record in the Breeders Cup. Its terrible.
Post Edited (10-14-04 08:14)
Pairing up -6\'s should undo him, a built in excuse if there ever was one. Toss in, this being his first effort at 10 panels and he\'s ripe for an upset. But, if he runs within 3pts of his top he\'s a contendaah and likely winnah.
Perfect Drift hasn\'t been the same this year, same with Pleasantly Perfect since Dubai. Dynever has been ill and hasn\'t broken thru his 3yo top.
BDH SHEETS---
Exactly. BC CLASSIC is wide open. Perhaps another VOLPONI looms this year.
I think GZ is too keyed up early to get the 1 1/4....reminds me of MDO\'s running style which led to him being virtually unbeatable at 1 1/8, bot 0 for at 1 1/4.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
How about JAIL for some of these guys, and yes, I am serious. These guys worry about suspensions, if you put a few of them in jail for 30 days that may be the real wake up call. A vet who administers illegal drugs to a horse is breaking the law and should go to jail for a lot longer than 30 days. That\'s sick.
I can\'t understand how this \"common knowledge\" which even extends to people knowing who some of the vets are doesn\'t ever expand into full blown criminal investigations. I don\'t know why this kind of thing isn\'t followed up on by the cops as opposed to just the industry itself. Wall Street describes itself as \"self policing\" through the NASD, but if you go far enough, they come for you with the handcuffs.
Find the vets and bust them, and some of the trainers should get it after the positives too. HP
HP, That\'s what is weird about this--at this point, according to this board, there are at least 20 trainers using \"magic\". Say, each trainer has 5 assistant trainers and other employees (probably low) that would have to have knowledge of the \"magic\". Assuming my figures are in the ballpark, that would mean there are at least 100+ people involved in this \"crime network/conspiracy\" over the last several years.
It doesn\'t seem logical to me that not one \"magic\" employee has gone to the track/cops/newspapers with proof of the wrongdoing (even the mob has its stoolies).
Also, why hasn\'t one of the big money/big time non-magic (presumedly independent)owners sued the tracks for allowing free rein to \"magic\" trainers on the basis the owner is getting unfairly screwed out of purse money? .
Something doesn\'t add up. Asfufh
Since we can include ALL the data we want on TG sheets and DRF, why not post the VETS NAME also...we might be better off playing the vet angle more than recent speed figs or trainer angles!
1st time vet
2 nd time vet
30-90 day layoff with this vet
Shipper with the new vet
1st time off the claim...get the idea!
Until such time as they make the vet accountable (like the trainer), there could be several vets treating a horse. If they ever do-- and list it on the program-- we\'ll be all over it.
Bobby F. by the way, yes he has what only 2 wins but he ranks 3rd on all time money earn. In BC races, alot of his horses runs 2nd-3rd-4th, thats damn good for me. These are the cream of the crop horses that he runs against on BC not a G1 at Del Mar with 5 horses. There you go.
Need to check your stats, Bob B. is rank 8th or 9th on all time money earn. He has ran 40 horses and 19 (almost)half came in the top 4. Just like I wrote about Bobby F. these races are alot tougher than some 5 horse race at Del Mar. I\'ll thake 19 out of 40 horses running in the top 4 out of mostly 14 horse fields.
Kev,
This is post from last year on this very topic. It makes a decent case against the argument that Frankel\'s horses run well in the BC but they just get beat because of tougher competition.
Chris
*****
Author: derby1592
Date: 10-30-03 18:49
As I have said on past occasions on this board, I am very concerned that drug use is prevalent even at the highest levels of racing and I know that many others, including top trainers and owners share this concern. What is encouraging is that people at the top levels of racing are finally starting to take real action. For example:
1) They announced that this year\'s BC would have new extensive, enhanced drug testing
2) Next year all graded stakes will be required to do similar extensive enhanced drug testing
3) Beginning on 11/1, NY will begin testing for EPO and suspending horses (interesting penalty) that test positive.
4) This is more talk than action right now but there is an initiative underway to try and standardize drug rules across racing jurisdictions.
Who knows what sort of impact these changes will have either short term or long term but at least they are doing something and I applaud them for that.
My biggest argument for really cracking down on this is that EVERYONE who excels today is immediately under suspicion. In some cases, the suspicion is probably justified and in others it is probably not. Until/unless racing gets cleaned up and the cheaters start getting caught and punished it will be very difficult to distinguish talent from chemistry.
Absent a \"smoking gun\" is there any good \"objective\" way to spot the bad guys? Because of all the \"noise,\" probably not; however, looking at the sheet figures earned by horses may provide some insight.
For illustration purposes, let\'s pick the most visible and most controversial trainer as an example: Bobby Frankel. He has had a phenomenal year. Nobody will argue that. Is it because his training ability and racing stock are vastly superior to all of his peers or is it for some other less laudable reason?
I don\'t claim to have a definitive answer but results from this year\'s Breeder\'s Cup certainly help fuel existing suspicions. True, it is only one day and there are other possible explanations for the poor showing by most of his runners, but the objective numbers seem to tell a compelling story.
Let\'s start by looking at the last 90 day stats. Keep in mind this is all recent data.
According to the new \"sneak preview\" TG stats - in the last 90 days, Frankel had 76 starters and 22% of those runners ran a new top and only 5 percent of them ran an \"X.\" That means that only 4 horses ran an X for Frankel during the last 90 days! Compare that to the overall average for all starters (36% ran X) or for all stakes horses (30% ran X).
Now let\'s look at the figs earned compared to the tops for all the Frankel runners in the 2003 BC:
Horse, Top, BC Fig, Category (as defined in Sneak Preview)
Sightseek, -3, 3.75, X
Peace Rules, -0.5, 12.25, X
Aldebaran, -4, 1.75, X
Midas Eyes, -2.75, 5.5, X
Heat Haze, 2.75, 4, Off
Megahertz, 4, 4.25, Pair
Tates Creek, 2, 5.75 (lame), Off - but a quarter point from an X
Medaglio D'oro, -2.25, -1.5, Pair
In summary, Bobby Frankel had as many runners X in the first 4 Breeder\'s Cup races as in his last 76 starters! You could certainly make a lot excuses for his BC starters including distance, competition, surface, pace, layoffs, weather, racing luck, etc. but you have to figure that his prior 76 runners had faced just as many such negative circumstance and potential excuses and still only 4 of them ran an X.
Even with this small sample, it is fairly obvious that there was probably some other \"intervention\" that led to the dramatic change in the numbers. The most obvious, at least to me, is the much publicized, new, rigorous testing for this year\'s BC. This may not be THE explanation and, as many have already stated, we will never really know but it is nice to think that just maybe the latest actions will \"level\" the playing field in graded stakes races and talent will shine through over chemistry (at least for a while).
Cheers.
Chris
Why not use what you call those \"excuses\", first of all, out of all those horses I must say Peace Rules has to be toss I laugh at that one, him running on the turf. So is the 1st number you listed the last # before the BC looks that way, I don\'t have TG numbers but I do have the Rags for that day. It all depends on what you though that day and how your style of capping is. Most sheets players say horses should bounce after running a top, alot of those horses was coming into the race off a new top or a repeat top. This has to be broken down by a case by case thing. Bobby F. starters for the BC 57-2-8-7-9, this needs to be talked about before the race happens. So this year let\'s talk about his horses and see if we can come up with the horses we think of his that should run well or not run well. I don\'t use the TG or rags anymore I have my own way\'s.
Kev,
I think you are missing the point. Frankel had only 4 horses \"X\" in the 76 starters immediately prior to the BC. I am sure a lot of them were also coming off tops or stepping up in class or changing surfaces, etc. and still only 4 of the 76 ran an X.
The first 4 Frankel horses that ran on BC day all ran an X. No matter how many excuses you make for each horse - 4 out of 4 as compared to 4 out of 76 is a strong indication that something suddenly changed on BC day.
Time to move on.
Good luck with this year\'s BC.
Chris
JB:
Its not like we don\'t have enough other stuff going on, but it would be interesting to have George run trainer fig profiles for ONLY a trainers BC starters. eg.
Frankel BC Starters 75
Top
Pair
Off
X
Catalin
1. Breeder\'s Cup fields are much deeper and talented than the typical Graded stake - even Grade I stakes. By definition, some very talented horses will finish poorly and not run back to their typical figures because of race development, race demands, and the number of contenders. This goes beyond ground loss. To expect as many horses as usual to run back to their typical figures in races like these is just plain naive. Horses are not machines and everything isn\'t part of some neat formula.
2. Frankel is one of the best trainers in the world at spotting his horses properly. When you go to the BC, you aren\'t finding the softest and best spot for your horse. That means that your stats will automatically decline because you are giving up one of your biggest edges.
3. Sample sizes of the type we are talking about are often meaningless. It should be expected that some \"great\" trainers will have have \"poor\" BC records and some \"average\" ones will have \"great\" records.
I am not making any claims one way or the other about Frankel being a juicer, but the above is a list of things that should be considered.
Post Edited (10-15-04 10:36)
Well said.
Catalin-- good idea. YOU tell him.
As for the % of tops being different-- shipping (especially from cold to warm) can make a difference, as will the races coming at the end of a long campaign. But these differences should be the same for everybody if you compare their % in other races to the BC. I definitely do NOT think the level of competition etc. should result in the % going down-- it doesn\'t in other races throughtout the year. Stake horses run a much HIGHER % of tops than other horses-- the exception being the Triple Crown, and that has to do with other factors.
>I definitely do NOT think the level of competition etc. should result in the % going down-- <
If I am understanding you correctly, I have to disagree.
The average stake (these days) has about 3 legitimate contenders, a handful of other horses that would have to improve to get the money, and a couple of duds.
Breeder\'s Cup races are sometimes 6-8 deep (or more) with horses that have a very legitimate shot. In a large field of very high quality and fairly evenly matched horses you are going to get more horses that aren\'t going to reproduce their typical figures because of their position and pace preferences relative to where they actually wind up and other aspects of trip and ability over and above the impact of ground loss.
I agree that there are other reasons why the Derby often produces failures besides what I am highlighting above, but some of it is the same.
In the old days, typical Grade I races were a lot like the BC is these days. A few top notch horses would routinely get trounced (and produce subpar speed figures) because the fields were so deep with talent. Then they would come back with their typical figure when spotted where they got the position and pace they wanted and slightly weaker competition to contend with when the battle began.
If you think every aspect of a horse\'s ability and performance can be reduced to a number, you obviously aren\'t to agree with me. That\'s OK. But IMHO, you are misunderstanding the impact the depth and quality of a field can have on the speed figures of individual horses. The BC is a perfect example of it.
Now if you are saying that everyone else\'s stats should be similar to Frankel\'s, you are missing one of my prior points that Frankel\'s greatest skill is in spotting his horses properly. That skill gets neutralized in the BC and puts him on a level playing field with everyone else.
Finally, again, we are talking about small samples. If Frankel has 2-3 very good years in the BC in the next 5 years, the stats might look very different.
Post Edited (10-15-04 14:43)
Current Top Ten Trainers/Purse Money
Trainers
--------
Name Starts 1st 2nd 3rd Purses
---- ------ --- --- --- ------
Todd A. Pletcher 764 192 134 101 $13,301,307
Robert J. Frankel 392 111 72 52 $11,930,412
Steven M. Asmussen 1730 424 271 274 $10,720,289
John C. Servis 217 50 25 30 $8,456,684
Bob Baffert 460 87 56 66 $6,741,724
Jeff Mullins 428 123 81 45 $6,145,741
Richard E. Mandella 127 18 22 23 $5,905,978
Nicholas P. Zito 365 64 52 43 $5,732,393
Richard E. Dutrow, Jr. 473 129 92 69 $5,728,535
Scott A. Lake 1310 283 240 190 $5,710,402
Is there any confirmation to the speculation that GZ has developed foot problems again?
10-12 Zapper worked 6f in 1:11.12 at Bel. and has a steady work tab. Not exactly a work you\'d expect from an ouchy horse, but who knows fer certain.....after cranking out a -4.75 and back to back -6.5\'s on relatively short rest, wouldn\'t surprise me.
Cole Norman trainee Beau\'s Town has been withdrawn from the BC Sprint due to \"his blood being a little off\". This despite being stabled locally, no less.