Fast rendition so no easy outs here but apparently the #1 may have a big time excuse for that last run - couldn\'t breathe. Had throat surgery since.
https://breederscup.com/news/2023/shahryar-aims-to-rebound-in-breeders-cup-turf
On his best he\'s pretty good. Watching his Japan Cup run from last year, more than a little ground in there as well it kind of looks like.
Good eye! and 15/1 on a horse who is still in its prime while having earned $8.3M to date. It is also worth mentioning that for some of the top Japanese horses, it is not unusual to race only a few times a year.
But I am biased in favor of the Samurai. The Sunday Silence, Deep Impact look still impresses me. Thanks, Phil.
According to Ed DeRosa.....\"in 12f turf races at Santa Anita with at least 10 starters posts 1-4 are 0 for 32 since 2014; posts 1-7 are 1 for 56.\"
Hard to ignore if true.
Good Luck,
Joe B
If I’ve got this right (and I’m still post seminar groggy), that’s a total of 8 races.
Those downhill races are so screwed up it’s hard to tell what anything means.
I am ignoring it completely, if you use that stat, you are throwing out 3 O\'Brien horses & Up To The Mark, not a big post position factor guy at 12 panels. Plenty of time to work out a trip if you got the horse.
I\'m not listening to Ed\'s stats, simply stating them. For the record, I think the 2 inside horses have a big shot.
Good Luck,
Joe B
No worries, best of luck to everyone.
Would be a bit more interesting to see a stat about how far back the winners were at, say, the 6F mark. Inside positions could play a role there, but if it\'s closing into that stretch on firm turf that\'s the problem, that has other handicapping implications, especially for some of the foreign runners.
Could have won without being steadied helped the verticals nonetheless.