TGJB -
You have mentioned that you sometimes work with the Jockey Club folks. Have you ever talked to them about incorporating TG data in the equine injury database?
I remember that long ago TG published a study showing the regression to be expected from young 3yos running a -1 or better, presumably because of the likely negative effects of an effort that was \"too fast too soon.\" Both Maple Leaf Mel and New York Thunder were lightly raced 3yos coming off very fast big tops. I\'m not suggesting that either injury was predictable, but it would be nice if the equine injury database helped people to evaluate the risk.
NYRA recently required PET scans from two turf horses because they had run in the same Delaware race as horses who were subsequently injured at the Spa. If NYRA is going to start demanding PET scans, maybe very fast young horses would be a better place to start.
Steve Byk had an excellent interview today with Dr. Steven Alday about the breakdowns and possible solutions and scans were mentioned. However, the cost and the time it takes to analyze the data are a deterrent. Dr. Alday was outstanding and Steve was right on point with his questions. If you have a chance listen to it
Good point BitPlayer !! The Travers day TG data showed that New York Thunder was a vet scratch on June 10, Belmont day. New York Thunder should have been a serious candidate for a PET scan because of the vet scratch and then subsequently, the big top in the Amsterdam.
The entire imaging process takes less than five minutes and, after a short recovery from sedation, the horses are able to walk back to their barns. All collected images are digital and can be viewed instantaneously to allow the attending veterinarian to formulate the best therapeutic plan for the horse.
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/uploads/wysiwyg/assets/uploads/20220913_PET_Scan_Coming_to_Churchill_Downs.pdf
HISA shoeing regulations have nothing to do with recent developments? Just asking.
Read my post on the "this is getting bad" string.
I followed up with the JC Saturday night, we'll see whether anything comes of it.
Question: Horse breeding and "enhanced training techniques" (and I'll leave it at that) have enabled horses to run extremely fast at times. I'm wondering if increased speed increases the stresses on a horses leg? If so, and assuming breeders will continue to breed faster horses all while training techniques continue to maximize performance, isn't the only answer to reducing stress at impact reducing the speed of the track? Adding cushion? Slowing them down?
See "Are Racehorses Getting Faster" in the Archives section. And that was 20 years ago.
I think the cushion at NYRA is over 5 inches now, not sure.
It's not slowing them down. Not enough anyway.
IMHO - On the money - Amanda Luby!
https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/adapt-evolve-or-be-forced-out-of-existence-letter-to-the-editor-amandy-luby-welbourne-stud/
The article by Amanda Luby is right on target. Is synthetic in our future?
I hope not. I\'m with Steven Crist.
If HISA mandates that all tracks go to a synthetic then we as horse players will witness the slow death of horse racing.
Amen to that. Thanks for the link.
Time out. Why?
Nothing about the breeding.
Just keep overbreeding babies to babies.
Ironic that the horse who inherited the win after New York Thunder broke down was sired by that paragon of soundness, Army Mule, who started three times.
I'd say we as horse players will witness a slower version of horse racing. Without the change I predict we will witness a faster death of horse racing.
Beyond our community of horse players is a much larger and faster growing community of animal rights activists of which I am one. If you want to see the sport survive you have to make it safer. Slow it down.
I remember years ago when one of the Hancocks said they wouldn\'t consider a horse for stallion duty unless he had at least 25 races. Maybe they should make that a rule for the whole sport.
There have been a lot of unsound racehorses that made great stallions.
Hail To Reason, Hoist The Flag, Raise A Native, Kris S, Danzig...
On a much more local scale, Compliance was a son of Northern Dancer who was winless in 3 starts.
Compliance sired Fourstardave and Fourstars Allstar, both of whom proved rather durable.
horses are injured for 1000 different reasons, having nothing to to with genetic soundness
Don\'t agree on Raise A Native. Here\'s Bill Nack\'s column on the 8 Belles breakdown and the Raise A Native line:
https://www.espn.com/sports/horse/triplecrown08/columns/story?columnist=nack_bill&id=3399004
A follow-up to points Nack made about the Raise A Native line and the use of joint injections -
I looked up the breeding of Maple Leaf Mel on Pedigree Query - I see Raise A Native twice, Mr. Prospector (a son of Raise A Native) twice, and other descendants of Native Dancer. Can\'t be good.
I just read today NY Thunder received joint injection(s) 2 weeks before both the Amsterdam (big new top) and his last race. Plus he was a vet scratch from the Woody Stephens in June and was on the vet\'s list, listed as lame, in April. I wonder why horses like that are allowed to run. HISA rules say a horse can race 14 days after a joint injection; maybe this should be lengthened. Or maybe joint injections should be banned.
Should not be allowed to run, obvious the horse had issues, and needed time off. And it is not the first "sore horse" that the trainer has had. Lightening Larry was transferred to that guy, ran huge and was injured.
I\'ve looked at the HISA plan of action following the fatalities at CD, Laurel, and Saratoga as well as the report on the fatalities at CD. It appears that HISA has not looked, and does not intend to look, for connections between move-ups and injuries. And if they don\'t include some form of performance data in their database, even with AI they are not going to find any connections if they exist.
Have you thought of offering some part of your database (leaving out the most recent year or two to prevent anyone from using it to build their own) to a grad student in data analysis looking for a thesis project? I doubt you have fatality data in the database, but looking at horses that DNF\'d in their final start might be a good proxy.
We don't need a grad student, if they give us the horses names we could knock this off in a week. I talked to someone last night who might have some influence.
Read this today before i read this post.
https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/letter-to-the-editor-the-unspoken-safety-factor-in-horse-racing-fatalities-from-the-handicappers-perspective/
This just shows how weak the breed has become. In the late 1980s it wasn\'t unusual for a horse to run 10 times during the Santa Anita winter-spring alone. And I looked up the record of 1961 Derby winner Carry Back - he raced 21 times at age 2 and another 7 times at age 3 before the Derby.
I thought the same thing, ran once a month basically, never would of thought that was racing a horse to much or to hard .