1. Forte 7/5
2. Arcangelo 5/2
3. Tapit Trice 12-1
4. Mage 4-1
5. National Treasure 8-1
6. Disarm 8-1
7. Scotland 12-1
JB when do you think Saratoga Saturday will be ready?? Thx...
Travers Day Field Sizes for Stakes Races:
5, 6, 8, 7, 7. Average Field Size. 6.6.
Charles Town Fields Sizes for Stakes Races Fri Night:
7, 10, 10 (+1 AE), 9, 10 (+4 AE\'s), 10 (+2 AE\'s), 10 (+1 AE), 10 (+1 AE), 10 (+3 AE\'s). Average Field Size: 9.55 (not counting AE\'s).
NYRA can only find 5 trainers it seems that get fast horses that can win graded stakes as a general rule. You can name all 5 I\'m sure. And that\'s why field size suffers b/c it is pretty obvious it ain\'t worth trying to beat those 5 guys in the big races. That NYRA product at Saratoga this summer has been a real treat.
On another note, Asmussen, Clement, and Miller got in some HISA trouble? No worries, I\'m sure they won\'t face any real consequences as HISA has already backed off some of their strong consequences with other trainers they caught violating their rules. I\'ll wait for the first real \"JOURNALIST\" in the racing game to interview any of these 3 in great detail about these Rules Violations. Or even better how about taking their workers pay to immigrant workers to pay their own attorney\'s fees. No worries, he is taking his NY string and moving elsewhere because the money just doesn\'t add up. . . I did catch that article but nary a word about the real issues these guys should be talking about and journalists should be writing about.
Fairmount1 Wrote:
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> That NYRA product at Saratoga
> this summer has been a real treat.
You got to meet me, that in itself makes up for anything bad.
P-Dub,
Going To Saratoga is always a fantastic experience especially being around the generous folks I\'ve met. Including you.
When I\'m there it is easy to say there is nowhere I\'d rather be.
Unfortunately, the on track racing product this season (part of it beyond anyone\'s control with weather) has been horrific.
I\'ll be up most of Labor Day weekend for a last hurrah this year. Making it twice a year is an annual goal with a long term goal of staying the whole meet when I reach retirement age. . . . if racing is still around.
Luis Saez was injured in a spill at Saratoga Wednesday and will be off his mounts
- Flavien Prat has the call on Mage in the Travers.
Look at National Treasures sheet.
Go back and look at Arrogate sheet.
Good luck
John
Is Gunite the play especially with the weight shift?
Dwindling field sizes and scant betting opportunities especially on major stakes days has been a plague for quite awhile.
Why not bring back handicap races where there's a spread of at least 12 pounds from highest to lowest? That's 3 points! That brings all kinds of horses into the mix. If the high weight barns don't like it let them take their act some where else. I could care less about watching an odds on champion win for fun. I'm there for the wagering opportunity. If you want to watch horses running around the track meaninglessly go to the breakfast.
Scotland at 12-1 ML
1 - Forte 7/5ML: Nice pair going into this race, not a bad pattern at all. The BI/BO in his last 2 are concerning. He can win this, but IMO a massive underlay.
2 - Archangelo 5/2ML: A Ton of development from his 2YO race. 2 huge jumps of 4 points each, backed up a little to win the Belmont. Is this an 0-2-X waiting to happen?? Anyone well versed on that let me know. Still, at 5/2 coming off a backward move with the 2 prior huge jump ups, another underlay for me.
3- Tapit Trice 12ML: Has alternated races recently, good/bad/good/bad from a numbers standpoint. He\'s due for a good one, gets blinkers. Had trouble in the Derby as many do and ran a clunker last time. If he runs his race will be right there at a price.
4 - Mage 4ML: His Derby and Haskell are the 2 fastest in the race. Regressed in the Preakness, got back to the fast one last time. Have to use him.
5 - National Treasure - 8ML: Still hasn\'t gotten back to his 2YO top, and has paired the same number in his 4 races this year which won\'t get it done. He would need a 3-4 point jump. I\'ll pass
6 - Disarm 8ML: Not a bad pattern at all, he just hasn\'t run a number fast enough to win yet. Gets blinkers. Has a license to break through and an absolute use underneath.
7 - Scotland 12ML: This horse is really interesting. Lightly raced just got started this year. Paired his last 3 races, and while those aren\'t fast enough they aren\'t bad at all........why not a forward move to be right in this?? Went 2 turns for the first time and wired the field on this track. NT will probably go right to the front, this one can lay right off of him. Fired off a bullet half mile best of 69 on the training track.
Scotland is a live longshot. Will key him with Forte, Tapit Trice, Mage, and Disarm.
I\'ll take a stand against Archangelo.
Excellent assessment P-Dub. I think Mage is ready to explode! He will be my key with the ones you mentioned.
However, I can\'t wait to watch Echo Zulu destroy the field in the Ballerina.
Good luck to you and all tomorrow.
I liked P-Dub's format so much, I "borrowed" it.
1 - Forte 7/5ML: Agree with P-Dub completely. Forte was clearly at the top of the class last year and most have been anticipating a major forward move, but he has just inched forward as a three-year old. His speed figures have not increased much, his wins have been marginal and he was beaten in the Belmont. Yet, he seems to have an uncanny will to win and gets to the wire first most of the time. I am going to have to use him in the P5 on half the tickets even though I suspect he will be less than even money when the gates open.
2 - Archangelo 5/2ML: Hate the 11 weeks off but the Belmont-Travers double is 6-1-0-3 in the last 20 years, so maybe it is not that bad. Thought he got the perfect trip in the Belmont. He is a toss for me as well as I think he will regress and while I am still learning how to read patterns, I don't like his.
3- Tapit Trice 12ML: He is just a goofy horse. I\'m surprised that it took them this long to put the blinkers on but maybe it makes a difference. It sometimes takes the offspring of Tapit a lot of time before their head catches up with their physical ability and sometimes it never happens. He has competitive numbers and his in/out pattern points to "in" today as P-Dub noted. I know there is more to it than this, but if you rank order the TG figures, Mage has the fastest two and then Tapit Trice has the next two fastest tied with one for Arcangelo - Tapit Trice has the talent, but "you gotta get your mind right." At double digit odds, I can take a flyer on the second fastest horse in the race who may be coming into the race on the upswing.
4 - Mage 4ML: Trainer stated that he did not want to run Mage back in the Preakness two weeks after the Derby except he felt compelled to do so with the Triple Crown. As TGJB reminded me, two weeks off is tough to overcome and he regressed. Before the Haskell, trainer said it was more likely Mage would be a little short as they were using this as a prep race for their ultimate goal - the Travers. He loomed at the top of the stretch and it looked like he hung a bit late - just as you would expect a horse to do that was running the race as a prep. He paired his Derby figure in the Haskell as a prep. I think the five weeks off is ideal and he looks set for a forward move here. In my estimation, he is the fastest horse coming in and the most likely to move forward. I think he has a breakout race and he is my top choice. I really like this spot for him. I have already singled him in a relatively cheap two day P6.
5 - National Treasure 8ML: National Treasure got the perfect set a circumstances in the Preakness and made the most of it when he wired the field in an extremely slowly paced race. I think he is quicker than Scotland (and the TG Pace Projector agrees with that) but interestingly the blinkers they put on for him to run in that race are coming off today - is that a signal they\'re not going send him? I think it\'s odd because Baffert attributed at least part of the Preakness win to new blinkers. johnnym noted that if you look at his TG sheet, his three-year old pattern looks similar to Arrogate's with a bunch of 4s before blowing up this race. I am not betting that\'s going to happen. I will not use.
6 - Disarm 8ML: Disarm has been competitive in the Triple Crown trail for the most part but has been on the short end of the stick against a couple of these a few times. He gets blinkers and there\'s no reason he can\'t run well. However, unless he improves more than a couple of lengths and everyone else just treadmills, he probably will not end up in the winner's circle. Could get a piece though.
7 - Scotland 12ML: Intriguing entrant who I think is going to get bet relatively hard - I put the over/under at 7/1. Scotland is the newcomer to all of this, and he is a late developing 3YO with a bit of buzz. Mott trains and the horse he just beat in the Curlin won the Smarty Jones at Prx the other day. This is a huge step up in class though and while the pace dynamics may work a bit in his favor, I think he is becoming the wise guy horse. He went 9f OK last time, but with that Speightstown mare bottom, I wonder of he wants 10f. That being said, I suspect he will be on or near the lead going into the stretch. After that I am just guessing but the more experienced routers with quicker late fractions may run him down. Comes down to price for me, but anything near his morning line seems like it would be good value.
I have the same tosses as P-Dub, but my key will be the shorter priced Mage. I will be keying Mage with some plays to Forte and Tapit Trice in the multi-race exotics and maybe a stab to Scotland as well.
One comment, since it's come up a couple of times, and it's not specific to the Travers— when you're looking at a horse off a big effort (or two), extra rest is a good thing.
One way to look at is to imagine the horse off an 0-2 had run back 4 weeks later and run an X, and now has had time since then.
As in all these cases, you have to evaluate what you think the top meant to the horse in question, and that involves a lot of things— pattern (how much has he developed? How has he reacted off previous tops?), pedigree, trainer, etc.
\"Misty morning, clouds in the sky
Without warning, a wizard walks by\"
MAGE, according to trainer Delgado, was not 100% for the Haskell. TGJB begs to differ. Either way, I\'m interested at 3/1 and up that he continues \"spreading his magic\" at the Spa.
https://youtu.be/MeZ8uVIOIhM?si=c9rr8fAsS5qzhRED
Going into race 5 with about four hours to go, there is over $400K in the Travers win pool and Arcangelo is 6/5. Here is the odds so far:
Forte 3/1
Arcangelo 6/5
Tapit Trice 14/1
Mage 5/1
National Treasure 6/1
Disarm 15/1
Scotland 7/1
Pick 4. I thank whoever did the analysis at TG
Let me be the second to congratulate you!
All back on Gunite based on the weights?
Another horse snaps their leg on the Saratoga stretch........up by many lengths
This is getting really old.
I don\'t even want to watch anymore
Hey PDub I just said to my wife I\'ve had enough of Saratoga and changed the channel.
It never gets old.
jerry Wrote:
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> It never gets old.
It was a figure of speech. geezus
another horse with a similar profile, goes down in nearly the same spot
short rest off a big number ?
Been around a long time, never seen anything like this. Maybe Cali had it bad a few years back, but I dont follow it .
HISA is going to be all over this. Could they shut this place down like they did to Churchill?
I know. No harm intended.
It looked like the horse took a bad step and ducked in while changing leads midstretch but he straightened up and ran on until he went down.
How many have there been? My hunch is it's the track.
Short answer is probably.
Longer answer involves a guy from HISA reaching out to me a couple of months ago after the CD breakdowns, his idea was it would be horses who ran poorly last time, and he didn't like my saying it was probably the opposite. I had him send me the list, I think 5 of the 7 were off new tops. I sent him the sheets, never heard back from him.
A complete whiff on this trace
Another op-ed might be in order. Not saying anyone should name names, but over 70 percent ran tops before is not a coincidence.
Same boat - whiff. I was dead last with no run. Is Acrangelo the favorite for the BC Classic now?
I can\'t wait to hear what the connections of Mage have to say with regards to that performance.
He was soft on the board s someone had an inkling.
Yeah, was there w/my oldest son and best friend. Someone walked up to my son after the second breakdown and said \"wow that really let the air out of this place, huh?\" Went to cash out for the day w/grizzled teller (I like to bet w/tellers the few times a year I play in person). He said, \"wow I can\'t keep watching this, what the hell is going on?\" Multiple young guys (20s, maybe early 30s) comforting their shaken/ashen/in some cases crying girlfriends/dates.
Took my son to the track for the first time on one of those old \"open house\" days back in 1999 when he was six months old. Never forget the look of joyous wonder on his baby face when the horses ran by us during one of those abbreviated races (Wait Trials?). Been going myself since the 1980s. Yeah, I know, we\'re nobodies, not the insider crowd, I\'m a guy who\'s never won more than $15000 (once) or lost more than $500 (a few times) in a single day. But we are also the sort of people who have kept the stands and the backyard here filled over the last forty years, as it rose from its near-death experience of the 60s and 70s.
I\'m no animal loon, as I have heard them referred to. I\'ll eat meat until the day I die. And I have had it w/this new American dog-worship obsession, as hapless self-absorbed owner-dupes stand by idly, smiling like simps as their precious unleashed dogs run through the \"you must leash your dogs here\" woods while they climb up on me, ruin a shirt in a couple cases. And the disgusting, laughing apology, \"oh he\'s such a good boy don\'t worry,\" which only forces me to go into full large, medieval gruff guy to make my \"get your f\'ing dog off me before I kick your ass\" mode. My wife got bit while jogging a few weeks ago and she wouldn\'t tell me where exactly it happened because she feared I\'d try to get the mutt put down.
I digress, but not really. Because if a guy like me, not especially warm and fuzzy about animals, and desperate to hold onto precious memories and to retreat into some magical, golden-hued past, if a guy like me gets the shakes after today, well...sitting right on the dividing line between what used to be the old grandstand and the old clubhouse, watching with a crowd of 40,000 that went from screaming in anticipation to gasping in horror after seeing a horse essentially explode right in front of our eyes...was just one of those brutal reminders that the old days are gone. People are less and less apt to just throw up their hands and say so be it at that sight than they were 10, 20, 30 years ago. And there\'s lots of things they - we - can bet on where the participants choose to be there, and are much less likely to die on the field.
I\'ve loved this game for more than three quarters of my conscious life, but today, man, seeing the game look that bad, in front of that many people, in front of that many casual observers...my buddy turned to me on our way out and laughingly said, so what\'s the O/U on years of this left? And I\'m not sure where that number lies exactly, but, at least this afternoon, it felt like the smart play would be on the under.
Don't know who you are, but some kinda post.
I never knew what some people felt when they saw the ruffian match race till today..
I don't know if it was in the same part of the track but I believe it was in the same part of the race. A young horse that is running that fast needs to have a nuclear scintigraph in between races. Poor spectators, poor owner and poor trainer.
Fred D
Umm, maybe just an oversight but...poor horse.
I'm sure you felt it. Anyone who has been with this sport for any length of time felt it. We love the game but we love the animals too. And when something like this happens it makes the game less fun. I would have been ok if they'd canceled the rest of the card. Watching Echo Zulu in the next race wasn't fun. It was worrisome. Scary. Downstate, horse racing could be a little rough around the edges. Not upstate. Not before. It was a happy place. This wasn't the storyline. This is the storyline now. This will be how this summer's meet will be remembered. Remembered by me anyway. I kind of wish I'd tapped out today so I wouldn't have a reason to come back tomorrow.
\"This is the storyline now.\"
I used to get stray $hit about loving racing from people once in a great while - and a lot of that was more from old fuddy-duddys who thought gambling was the work of SATAN than people who cared if horses got hurt along the way. Mostly, people up here either were avid fans or at least grateful for what the track brought to the economy here. (For the record, despite a couple years spent in the Bronx during my diaper years, I was bred, born, raised, have lived most of my life, and for 100% sure will die and be buried in my beloved Saratoga County, New York). Upstate New York pretty much turned into a post-industrial shitscape fifty-ish years ago; the Spa coming back to life served a source of civic pride, and, starting in the early 1990s, as the main driver of ever-rising real estate values in Saratoga Springs and to a lesser but still important extent to most of the rest of the county.
People were either in to it or didn\'t care either way. But more and more over the past few years I have caught so many more negative comments from the didn\'t care either way crowd. Many of the born-and-bred natives would of course be horrified to see the value of their properties sink if/when the track closes shop, but just as I have my own cognitive dissonance about the track, they have their own about why the houses they own now would carry far less value than they do if Saratoga Race Course hadn\'t turned into the behemoth it is today.
But people now, up here anyway, are perfectly willing to bite the hand that has fed them well for the past thirty years. Even the local news outlets, once reliable sources of relentless track boosterism, now publish the latest equine fatality front and center, whereas they\'d once ignore it. Horses died up here in 1992, too; but you\'d never see a local news station or paper come out with a lead story like the one titled \"Deaths in two earlier races cast a pall over over Travers Day at Saratoga Race Course\" at the top of WRGB\'s page tonight. In 1992, the story would have been titled something like \"Spa City swells by thousands as Arcangelo dominates Travers.\"
This - the disasters on the track - is indeed the story now. And like it or not we can\'t will it away by yelling \"PETA LOONZZ\" or whatever. People I know who wouldn\'t piss on PETA if it was on fire are coming to me asking, you like racing, so WTF is going on over there?
Rumor from California -- racing at Saratoga may be cancelled tomorrow? Good source. Not sure though.
It\'s indicative of the way popular opinion is turning - twenty years ago it would have been biz as usual tomorrow. And my hands ain\'t free of blood in that either because I woulda been there and saying, yeah, too bad about yesterday, but this 10-1 shot in the 8th is interesting. They know they have a PR disaster on their hands and they know they gotta at least LOOK like they are doing something about it. It\'s not beyond the realm that general public opinion sees the game as an exercise in animal cruelty and turns against it to the point where it is no longer politically feasible to support the sorts of subsidies that keep the game afloat. I kinda ranted against dogs and their owners earlier tonight but the attempted point was, the public has anthropomorphized animals to a level never seen before in this society. When they see a video of a racehorse going down like it a bomb had detonated from within its stomach, they may collectively decide that hey, this is an endeavor that needs to go.
The New York Racing Association said Saturday night that it would convene an emergency meeting of New York State Gaming Commission and Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority officials before deciding to run Saratoga\'s Sunday card following two additional horse deaths on the Saturday card.
On Saturday, Nobel, a 4-year-old horse making his first start in the U.S., broke down during the run-out of the fifth race, becoming the fifth horse at the Saratoga meet to suffer a catastrophic musculoskeletal injury during a turf race. Then, in the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Stakes four races later, New York Thunder suffered a horrific catastrophic breakdown in front of the grandstand when leading in deep stretch. The injury also required euthanasia.
Did anyone hear anything mentioned on FOX about Nobel breaking down?
Yes-a short word coming back from commercial break. I could be wrong but I believe it was apprx 30 min after.
Don't get me wrong what I have witnessed the last couple of weeks turned my stomach like many of us.
I ask when babies are producing over 200 babies a year, then their babies are producing over 200 babies a year over numerous years that just can't be good for the breed.
My 2 cents no breeding until a horse is at least 5 a full mature animal.
No more than a 100 babies a year.
I'll be on the sidelines until the BCC.
Good Luck
John
pip4126 Wrote:
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> Did anyone hear anything mentioned on FOX about
> Nobel breaking down?
When a horse doesn\'t break down in front of millions of eyes, they did what they normally do.........they barely mentioned it.
Wolf snuck in a 20 second comment after the 6th race, as they were going into a break, read from a script with zero emotion. It was fucking pathetic.
Has anyone heard if they are racing at \" the (graveyard) of champions today?
Coincidently,
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/24/us/ruffian-race-horse-reburied-kentucky.html