Bet with the Best Podcast episode #13. Paul Matties is the guest.
For those of you with 2 hours and 51 extra minutes to listen, there is a great deal of CRW talk that is interesting as part of the topics covered.
I didn\'t find it earth shattering on other fronts but given the CRW talk here lately, it may be worth the listen for those that want to hear more on CRW\'s. Much of it is anecdotal that leads to strong generalizations. But it is from someone who is following the game every single day and this lends serious credibility to his views.
One example he gives is the exacta from Race 10 Sunday at Saratoga.
$1.85-1 favorite over $10.10-1 6th choice in an 8 horse field paid $11.60 for $1. The mental jostling of \"I should have hit this Exacta much harder\" when it crossed the wire juxtaposed with learning the payout and thinking \"I never should have played that exacta\" encapsulates what many of us go through today with CRW\'s.
Near the end he does say that on big days with large competitive fields is a place CRW\'s may struggle to figure out how to play those races.
If you enjoy horse racing, you will probably enjoy the listen. Episode 13 as stated above. Other episodes cover CRW\'s also but this one I found really interesting where he covered it.
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bet-with-the-best-podcast/id1678014385
Interesting Twitter post from Pat Cummings regarding last-second betting on the winning exacta combination in race 3 at Saratoga today:
https://twitter.com/PatCummingsTIF/status/1694439819139543542
BitPlayer Wrote:
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> Interesting Twitter post from Pat Cummings
> regarding last-second betting on the winning
> exacta combination in race 3 at Saratoga today:
>
> https://twitter.com/PatCummingsTIF/status/16944398
> 19139543542
Maybe the big bettor was one of us. The thoro analysis gave the exacta in a three horse box and if you boxed them in the tri, you missed the tri by a head and a nose for third. Any experts know how to relate the exacta and tri payoffs?
Many folks \"in the industry\" like to say the CRW\'s aren\'t going anywhere and aren\'t leaving. Namely that includes one person I really respect as a handicapper.
But he and others keep retorting that NYRA is the only place that has done anything significant about the CRW\'s. That they eliminate them from the win Pool at 3 mtp (or 2 mtp depending on who you read or hear talk about it) and eliminating them from the late pick 5. This raises an issue I still have not conquered in my mind and it also states something that simply is not true although it could be in the current state of affairs.
1. Eliminating the CRW\'s from the WIN pool at 2 or 3 mtp. Like the place and show pool, the WIN bet is the SIMPLEST bet one can make. Notice they don\'t say ANYTHING about if they are eliminated from the PLACE AND SHOW pools to SEE patterns of wagering they rely upon for their LATE last second bets.
So while I agree they may be cutting off their \"Access\" to the win pool information at that point, they certainly can\'t cut off their ability to WAGER on it. And they haven\'t said they have eliminated the similar Place and Show Pools. Oh they can\'t upload \"batch\" bets of hundreds of win bets at once? What does that mean? Is $200 the maximum WIN bet in a single wager? I\'m genuinely curious on this front. Do they have to send in as many $200 win bets as possible like \"retail\" customers? Or can one wager $1000 in one keystroke from all ADW\'s? Even if so, they could still bet from a Straw Man\'s Account 3 bets per second I think M.Gramm stated. So couldn\'t they still chase the win pool all they wanted to that degree that a retail players does? It is a SIMPLE one horse wager. I mean Come on.
Now they can SCAN those exacta pools until the last moment and presumably the PLACE AND SHOW pools and who knows what they can and can\'t see. That\'s also NEVER discussed while NYRA is \"combatting\" CRW influence. I mean can they see that someone made a wager on a Rising Graph horse is out of line with other bets in the exacta pool and then they fire on that horse. Can they see a Mott horse is taking the same $12k of money from a certain location they\'ve seen successfully before and they know to go after that horse b/c they have seen that in the past? I don\'t know the answers to what their \"access\" to the pool is and I don\'t genuinely believe they are excluded from the Win pool if they don\'t want to be other than they can\'t \"SEE\" or \"ACCESS\" the amounts and locations (?) and Identities of some sort (?) of these win bets. But they still can for doubles, exactas, place and show pool. Amazing no one ever comments on that isn\'t it?? All ears for someone to share that with me more details.
2. Oaklawn Park as I have posted about in the past EXCLUDED the CRW\'s altogether. That may NOT be true today but at least for 4 years before COVID I know they did. I was on a first name basis with the person in charge of TOTE down there until that person moved on. And I would call every year and talk to them about the CRW\'s and excluding them. The person told me in great detail how the CRW\'s would try to \"sneak\" in under someone else\'s (major player in ADW world) access and make wagers. And then Oaklawn would see it and catch it and then CUT off access for that outlet for a period of time. They said they would keep them out and paid attention closely. That person no longer works at Oaklawn and the person I spoke to the next year about it was clueless about this issue. So I can\'t say that is still true that CRW\'s are excluded. But for NYRA shills to keep saying NO one else has done anything to combat this is flat out wrong. I like the guy but simply Wrong.
I\'ve also heard Tampa has excluded them at times. So a p5 and 2 mtp on a win pool isn\'t exactly in the same area code as eliminating them altogether as at least Oaklawn and possibly Tampa have done in the past at a minimum.
If anyone knows the current status of CRW\'s at Oaklawn and Tampa, I\'d be curious also.
It is highly doubtful that if it was a TG player that they bet 53% of the winning combo in literally the \"last fraction of a second\" in the wagering. Retail players can\'t be that exact time and time again to get their bet in at the last moment or rather fraction of a second.