Just some #\'s from the combatants:
Blue Burner: Both have Fl Derby as 4pt top TG-Wood a slight move back, Rag a new 2pt top.
Buddha: TG 3pt bounce in Wood, Rag virtually a pair up.
Came Home: Rag hit 2yo top in 3yo debut, TG a 4pt top. Both lines regressing, Rag 5.75, TG 3.75 since.
Castle: nada
Danthe: TG paired up 6\'s this year before retreating in SA D, Rag hit 2yo top regressed 3.5 and another 6+ in the SA D.
Easy Grades: Rag hopelessly slow with a 7 top moved back 2pts, TG paired up 3.25\'s
Essence: TG 6.25 x 2 as 2yo UAE guess 4.5, Rag 9.75 debut top, UAE guess 7
Harlan: Both have an 0-2-X going into CD. TG FL D 3pts faster
Itsallin: Both had return tops in La D, Rag 3pts slower, both regressed in Arky
J\'burg: Rag 5.25 in BC, TG 6.25 How did that happen LOL
Lusty: Rag hoplessly slow with a return top to 9.5 in SA D vs TG a new 3pt top within Medaglias zipcode
Medaglia: TG paired up 2.5 top in Wood vs big 5pt top in Rags to a 1
Ocean: Rag has turf race as top vs TG pairing last two but slooooow.
Perfect: TG never gone back, Battaglia 5.75pts faster than Rag. Spiral TG 2.5 top, Rag 3.5. Rag 3pts slower
Private: TG a 4pt top in Arky off SW stks, Rag a 6pt top thru his 2yo top of 10.5 in Arky
Proud: TG 1.75 top in Lex thru 2yo best, Rag 2.75 for same. Rag SA D fig 6pts slower
Request: Rag second return to his 4.75 top in Spiral, TG 3 straight 2.5\'s
Saarland: TG never gone back pairing 3yo efforts, Rag 3pt bounce in Remsen to 11.25 TG a 1.5 move forward to 7.5. Rag 3.5 top in Wood to a 1.75 TG 1.5 slower.
War Emblem: TG paired 7.25pt top from FG 8.25 2yo top, Rag hit 2yo top in initial SPT go, IL Derby a 5.5 top
Wild: RAG a .25 top in Arky, TG paired his top, both slooow
Ragozin has the west coast figs incredibly slow, while TG has them within shouting distance.
Four fastest Rag horses:
Madaglia 1.0
Saarland 1.75
Blue Burner 2.0
Buddha 2.25
Three horses in the 3+ range
Four fastest TG horses:
Came Home \"0\"
Harlans Holiday \"0.50\"
Perfect Drift \"0.50\"
Buddha \"0.75\"
Five horses in the 1-2+ range
Good luck whoever you choose. Remember it\'s only a single horse race. If you guys clip it, I understand.
bdhsheets
The discrepancy on Johannesburg came about because Ragozin had the track speed for BC day flat (He used an average). If you want to find details about this, I posted at length following the BC here, precipitating quite a furor (intentionally). Look in the archives.
http://www.thorograph.com/Ask/archives
Ragozin has the 4 fastest horses coming out of the Wood? Boy, that\'s some coincidence.
was just at the other board and as usual he is using mostly everything lightly in the exotics, this guy kills me he is such a hedger, wish he would take his balls out of his wifes purse and take a stand for once.
Bob wrote:
>
> was just at the other board and as usual he is using mostly
> everything lightly in the exotics, this guy kills me he is
> such a hedger, wish he would take his balls out of his wifes
> purse and take a stand for once.
>
>
TG--I counted 10 to use in exotics, including his top pick (?), and a separate \"key horse for an exotic play\". And that doesn\'t count the 3 \"for extreme spread players.\" Given the odds of all the horses involved, the only real stand he took was against Came Home.
I would love any ragozin player to post in advance what results constitute a win for this analysis, or a loss. Seriously.
TGJB wrote:
>
> Bob wrote:
> >
> > was just at the other board and as usual he is using mostly
> > everything lightly in the exotics, this guy kills me he is
> > such a hedger, wish he would take his balls out of his wifes
> > purse and take a stand for once.
> >
> >
>
> TG--I counted 10 to use in exotics, including his top pick
> (?), and a separate \"key horse for an exotic play\". And that
> doesn\'t count the 3 \"for extreme spread players.\" Given the
> odds of all the horses involved, the only real stand he took
> was against Came Home.
>
> I would love any ragozin player to post in advance what
> results constitute a win for this analysis, or a loss.
> Seriously.
>
>
And another thing, just so that I\'m on the record in advance. If the Wood horses run bad, that confirms the Rag Wood # because they bounced. If they run well it also confirms the #. And most importantly, those figures will be hugely important both in reading their patterns going forward, and in making figures for the derby and 3yo stakes for the rest of the year.
So Jerry, you are saying that the Ragozin guys are going to claim the numbers were good regardless of the outcome.
Aren\'t you really just saying you are right, regardless of the outcome?
I do pity you.
I use the Rags and have to admit that I concur with some of the above-mentioned criticism. I see no point in giving analysis that includes playing 80% of the horses at least somewhere in exotics, which Friedman does.
Admittedly I had a very tough time narrowing this field down, but ended up with Perfect Drift and Saarland as my top choices. I think I would respect the \"expert\'s\" opinions on these big races a bit more if they just said to hit the ALL button for 3rd and 4th. At least then I\'d know they were as lost as I was. Sure, I coulda had the exacta if it came War Emblem-Perfect Drift, but I wouldn\'t have the gall to say that I \"liked\" the winner.
It\'s just like the 1996 Derby....Editor\'s Note and Grindstone were a coupled entry and I bet em because of Editor\'s Note. I didn\'t like Grindstone even a little bit, but he got the money and thus I did too. I don\'t go around bragging that I had the winner, beacuse I didn\'t.
In fairness to Friedman, his \'strongest group\' was four horses. Plenty of people, myself included, went deeper and used more horses in the \'under\' spots in tris to reel in the payday.
Of course, it will be great over the next few weeks to hear about how great those Beyers (dynamite) are. Heh. HP
The syndicate I put together hit the tri and the super, I cashed my future book bet and had 75% of the money I bet to win on the race on War Emblem. save the pity for a time I need it.
You should check out the seminar in ROTW.
I don\'t pity you for cashing tickets. I pity you for your twisted view of the world.
Nice after-the-fact score.
It came from someone who had got off the phone seconds before with Baffert. And it obviously made no difference in my play. They took hold of him, but he fell into the lead anyway.
Check out the seminar. It\'s free.
Hey I checked out the seminar. Not bad, you only had to go eight deep to hit the tri.
Don\'t you find it just a bit dishonest for someone to make Perfect Drift their top value play, tell us War Emblem won\'t be on the lead, then turn around and bet 75% of their win money on that very horse?
I hope the syndicate was made up of the same guys that own Rising Graph - maybe they can get a little of their money back.
Hey Mr. NotAnOpenForum, let me introduce you to the truth. Using the Thorograph analysis, you would definitely have used Perfect Drift, Saarland, Request for Parole, War Emblem, and Medaglia d\'Oro. To go a bit deeper you would used Proud Citizen, and tossed Blue Burner and Essence because of the speed favoring strip. That makes six horses, five of those ran 1-5. Furthermore, you definitely would have tossed Came Home, Harlan, and Johannesburg, three horses that took good money....... Given it was the most difficult betting Derby in years, what more were you looking for ????
Horse players reserve the right to make last minute decisions based on post parade and tote board inspection.
While I posted that the bet was $200 to win on Came Home, in actuality I bet it this way:
$100 to win on Came Home
$10 ex Johan over Came Home
$10 ex Saarland over Came Home.
$50 win Perfect Drift
$30 win War Emblem
Bet $200 return $645
However, unlike most \"Tip sheet sellers\" I will not take credit for picking the winner as my top choice was 6th.
Other observations:
My observation of Saarland in the Wood was DEAD ON BALLS ACCURATE.
Perfect Drift was a ridiculous underlay as was Saarland (both were 1-2 in the doubles payoffs.
MO
The play I put together, strictly for tris and supers, was a 7 horse box(PD, S, RFP, WE, MDO, PC, BB), pressing the first 5. A $1700 play gave us $1 on the super, $2 on the tri. For me the whole play was(as I said in the seminar)a bet against HH, CH and J. If you are spreading out in exotics about the only other way you could conceivably play the race off our seminar was to key PD, in which case you get to the same result cheaper. The play I put up in the analysis has to be smaller- I can\'t assume everyone can make $1700 plays. I gave them the 5 horse box and a win bet on PD. 4 of the 5 ran 1-3-4-5. I could conceivably have added a win bet on WE- I bet him pretty good myself, partly because I was live for a ton in futures with PD, HH, and RFP, along with 10 others for lesser amounts(including WE)- but again, I didn\'t want to spread small players out too thin.
You\'re the best, Jim. And I have no idea why you think the horse not being on the lead would keep someone from betting him.
Well Jer, as Mike D likes to keep pointing out, speed was very good yesterday. Telling everyone that War Emblem wasn\'t going to be on the lead does make a big difference. Would War Emblem have won if he hadn\'t been on the lead? Probably? Maybe Perfect Drift could have outkicked him off the pace? Whoo knows?
Just so you realize that he didn\'t inherit the lead like you tried to rationalize. He had it per Baffert\'s instructions, contrary to you and your birdie\'s advice. Again, nice after the fact win, for you and your \"sydicate\". I kind of doubt you\'d be as gracious if I posted a similar score.
See i just wrote it on the other topic.
I DON\'T WANT TO HEAR ABOUT YOU HIT THE RACE AFTER IT\'S OVER WITH.
Enough of this crap. Don\'t want to hear it from you either Jerry. Sounds like Robes boxing and using 8 horses. or more maybe for him.
Hey Mike D, out of curiosity, if you could throw out so many horses because of a speed favoring track, why wouldn\'t you throw out Perfect Drift? He\'s a big-time closer that was only close to the pace because Eddie D gave a heady ride.
PS I didn\'t lose on the Derby, but didn\'t make much either. I lost my win and tri plays, but did make a nice score on the only head-to-head matchup I played (Blue Burner over Easy Grades) on wsex.com.
I agree kevin, it\'s poor form.
most of baffert\'s comments I have seen this morning suggest that he did not want Espinosa to use the horse out of the gate. considering that the horse had run relatively moderate halfs in his last two victories, I think a lot of people took it to mean the horse would not be clear on the lead. I would bet that Baffert himself would say he was surprised that his horse was free on the lead. It doesn\'t look like JB was passing on BS info. But I do think that the front running, unhindered trip played some role in the outcome.
Sorry mate (don\'t know your name), but Eddy D strangled the heck out of the horse (his own words). The horse was placed where he was because of the natural speed he showed in EVERY SINGLE RACE HE HAS EVER RACED IN. Take a look at his lines. He\'s no speedball, but has always been on or close to (within two lengths) 46 halfs. Ask me why I didn\'t throw out Saarland because of the speed favoring track......actually please don\'t, I have no answer.
Mike D, are we talking about the same horse? Showed natural speed in every race? Whew! He hasn\'t made the lead or even been in the top 2 since he broke his maiden 5 races before the Derby.
He may not be Silky Sullivan, but Perfect Drift is a closer. In his last two races he was never better than 5th through the first 3 points of call. His last two comment lines coming into the Derby are, \"Reserved,\" and \"Eased back.\" He has tactical speed, but to call him a speed horse and say he showed that in every single race he has raced? Nah, I don\'t think so - made me smile though.
OK, let me explain this in the simplest terms possible. If the comments lines in Perfect Drift\'s last two races where \"reserved\" and \"eased back\", and he still arrived at the half in 46.4 and 46.4, the horse obviously has some natural speed. I have called Perfect a horse with natural speed, you have referred to the horse as a big time closer. Now again, Mr. N.A.O. Forum, who is correct here? A horse who gets to the half in 46.4 and 46.4 while getting the comments \"reserved\" and \"eased back\": is this horse a horse with natural speed, or is this horse a big time closer?? The horse ran a 45.4 half in his first lifetime start!!!!
Come on, would you please get serious with some of these comments. At first I found your anti-TG bias a bit amusing. Now, since you have called a horse who never raced more than 2.5 lengths (at the half) off the pace in his first six lifetime starts a \"big time closer\", and you were proven completely wrong in the derby, it is time to start getting to the truth. Again, I will provide another example, since you do not seem all that sharp. In Perfect Drift\'s third race he arrived at the half in about 45.3, while being restrained, over a dull surface. Again, now please read this slowly my sharp friend. IN PERFECT DRIFT\'S THIRD RACE HE ARRIVED AT THE HALF IN ABOUT 45.3, WHILE BEING RESTRAINED, OVER A DULL SURFACE. So very, very, very obvious. This is a horse who is better characterized as a horse with some natural speed, than a big time closer. Period. Please, I beg you to respond, and explain to me how a horse who ran to the half in 45.3, while being restrained, over a dull surface, does not have natural speed. Sure, at one point they may do things different in the morning, and force the horse to rate better, but as of now my friend, you are completely wrong.
You are an amusing person to argue with... Just for my info, are you involved with the Rags organization, or just a guy who hates TG? Personally, I have never seen or spoken to a member of either organization, but have used both sheets, and have been using the TG sheets more often recently.
I\'m glad you did so well. What\'s the matter, you can\'t dig up your own $1,700? What\'s the lackey cut? I\'m spending way too much time on this. I have responsibilities.
You know I would never listen to the seminar before the race. I\'m not one of these \'pick me a winner\' types. I\'m not one of these \'who do you like Jerry?\' weiners calling in on Derby week. I\'ve been there. I dig my own graves. If I won that way I\'d have to tear up the ticket.
I didn\'t use HH, CHome or J either. I didn\'t like WEmb, PCitizen or M\'D. The winner took a big jump to pair the 1\'s and I didn\'t like it. To hell with this sheet crap. I transcend these numbers with my own special gifts. You\'ve got your nerve playing those horses. Luck! That\'s all. Who are you kidding with that Proud Citizen? Probably somebody\'s birthday and a shoe size.
I liked two horses, Saarland and Perfect Drift. I used a few others. My bankroll is still phat, don\'t worry. But still, in the Big Race, my ass was in the wind. I played most of my money on PDrift to win and in exs and a little tri. I\'m so dumb I\'d do it again! If I knew you would rack $50K ahead of time I\'d still do it again. I\'ll show you a syndicate. I DON\'T NEED NO STINKIN\' SYNDICATE! I\'m much bigger than that. --HP
Ok Mike D, I can see I\'m going to have to educate you and this will require a bit a of work. Since you seem an honest sort, I\'m willing to put in the extra work. So, let\'s get started.
First, let me say I think the root of your misconception stems from your ignorance of the terms closer and speed-horse. A speed horse goes to the front or is in the top 2 or 3 in the early stages of the race. PD has not had the lead (or been in the top 2) in the early stages of a race since he broke his maiden.
A closer comes from off the early pace and passes more than a few horses down the stretch (Perfect Drift passed 5 horses in each of his last 2 races).
I think if you took a poll on this board or any other, the overwhelming majority would classify Perfect Drift as a closer and not a speed horse. Again, I don\'t classify him as a Strike the Gold kind of closer, but his running style is to come from off the pace. He is NOT a speed horse. But hey, I could be wrong - I certainly was about Proud Citizen.
No, I\'m not, nor have I ever been associated with the Ragozin organization. I have never even met anyone from their office. I don\'t hate TG and never bad-mouth their product at the track. However, I am a Ragozin fan and get a little tired of JB\'s constant attack on Ragozin and his product. I ask you, do you ever see Len Ragozin attacking JB or his product on this or any other board? Does he ever complain about the intellectual property JB stole when he made his knock-off product? The answer to both is a resounding N-O.
My my how quickly you separate yourself from your original comments.... Perfect Drift was once a big time closer, now that you realize you are wrong, you no longer want to classify him as a big time closer. And please take any poll any time you want, ask any racing fan ever to watch a race.. go ahead ask, is it better to classify Perfect Drift as a \"big time closer\" or a \"horse with some natural speed\" ?? Please my friend, take the poll. You are soooooooo wrong.... And why no response to my point that Perfect Drift ran a 45.3 half in his third lifetime start, under restraint, over a dull surface.... you don\'t like the facts do you........... anyway, I still did not cash in the Derby, I was wrong, I thought Perfect Drift would show some good speed and get 47 for the half, but would run down three or four horses who raced on a 45.4 or 46 pace, getting a big jump on the real \"big time closers\". The fast pace just never showed up. So I will let you get the last word (hopefully with results from your poll) and make this my last post on the subject. Let\'s compare notes before the Preakness, shall we.......................
Just one more thing before we all get your brilliant reply. From the beginning of this discussion, I have said that Perfect Drift was \"not a speedball\", but a \"horse with natural speed\", Your point was that Perfect Drift was a \"big Time closer\". Can\'t wait for the results to this poll.......
When I saw Perfect Drift so close to the pace I thought Eddie D had lost his mind. But after some reflection on PD\'s PP\'s, here\'s what I found:
races on Nov. 16 seven furlongs
almost wired the field with a 45and 4 half.
next start wired the field but a slow 48 and 1 half mile.
next start - 6th in a field of 7 at the half mile which he got the half in a shade over 46 flat.
Now he goes TWO TURNS in January - he was 4th in a field of 10 at the half which he ran in 47 and 2.
Next start he goes a mile and a 16th, is 6th in a field of 8 at the half mile getting the half in 47 and 1.
Next start in the Spiral he is 5th in a field of 8 at the half mile getting the half in 47 flat.
In summary, in his route races, he gets a half in 47. Pace of the Derby was 47. It figures he was on the pace.
BUT - his running style is not speed, not closer but STALKER. A speed horse needs the lead or is within a length at the pace call.
Stalkers are 3 to 5 lengths out of it and closers are 6 or more behind.
Should the pace be 46 flat in the Preakness, he will be 5 lengths out of it. If the pace is 47, he\'ll be within 2 lengths.
If they go 45 flat, he will be struggling to keep up and will need the race to fall apart to win.
Humbley yours,
MO
Mike D,
You sound like you are getting a bit emotional so I\'m going to let up on you. I agree with Mark O\'Keefe, he would definitely be considered more of a stalker than a big-time closer - I was wrong to use that term. Does that make you feel better?
It is nice to see that someone else thought the same thing about Perfect Drift being so close to the pace, since he isn\'t a speed horse. I think most expected him to come from off the pace.
I\'m curious as to how you classify speed horses Mike D. Would you consider Saarland a speed horse since he was 2 lengths off 45 flat pace in the Gotham?
IMO it was a heady ride by Eddie D that put Perfect Drift closer to the pace.
Looked like Delahoussaye was the only one reacting to what was going on. It\'s also possible he was the only one with any horse. In all this pace discussion, one thing that may be overlooked is that this was The Race Nobody Ran. After M D\'Oro they all stank up the joint big time. HP
i don\'t really see that there was so much early speed in the race anyway budda scratched nothing inside of we was that fast early why not go to the lead .eddie d. sensed a slow pace and as jerry noted ,did not choke any real early foot was breaking far outside , frankel said his horse would rate where was all this pace i keep hearing of .i believe j\'burg was prepping for the met after a half i knew the race was over .why didn\'t anyone reach out for the services of p.valenzuela ,other than bailey he\'s the guy i would most want on my horse past problems and all
If war emblem didn\'t make the lead then D.Wayne would have won in even slower time
Just wondering, Jerry....
I heard that your Derby syndicate was spread as thin as guys having 1/17th share, costing them $100 and netting around $4800. How many people split this synidcate, and how many shares did you keep?
Both you and Alydar need to understand that irony is going to go over the head of a lot of people. Me, I\'m a genius, so I think that\'s pretty funny.
And you think I underestimate the intelligence of the readers of this board?
Too funny - I believe you have to be the most inconsistent person I have ever come across. How about it Jer, is Tim B right? Were you really chasing guys for $20 bills?
HP, I thought it was pretty funny too - good job there lackey. I hope the numbers are dynamite this summer!
Gracious- that\'s the word I was looking for.
While I do have incentive to let you continue to alienate people(for reasons I have made clear- business reasons), I\'ve started to get complaints(two via telephone since the Derby). So, for the last time: substantive posts(I\'ve given examples)only. The next purely partisan nonsense(or any other gratuitous unpleasantness)you spew gets you the honor of being only the second person ever banned from this site. An ill-conceived response to this post will do the trick.
This forum is open to Ragozin partisans, and I try to get the wild eyed zealots like yourself to post here so that potential customers can get a good idea of what Raggies are about, and what goes on in the field(at tracks)every day. But I\'m not going to let you take a crap in the middle of the living room and sit there playing with it. It disturbs the grown-ups, and they are paying customers.