What kind of idiots still buy that trash?
THANK YOU JB!!!!!!!! LETS GOOOOOO!!!!!!
I gave you a bit to take it down Jerry. Didn\'t. You encourage this stuff.
Let\'s consider what we are discussing. The investment of dollars in a parimutuel game. Hmmmmm. Doesn\'t that lend itself to Morlocks devouring Eloi? Why eliminate the source of enrichment?
Since I am the type of idiot sekrah speaks to, why not a challenge? I considered opening this to all, but thought better of it. This particular pinhead posted and I took up the gauntlet.
How about a contest this coming Saturday? Belmont 6/17. $24 bankroll any way you want to spend it on the card. Posted by midnight Friday.
I also considered a $250 donation to PDJF for the loser, but I really cannot afford it should I come out on the short end. I am living in Joe Biden\'s America at the poverty level ($1500/mo SS).
C\'mon Mensa.....I dare ya.
The problem is you're living in Jake's America.
That wouldn't be like someone leading by 30 points debating their opponent. It would be like debating one of their voters.
I\'m surely missing your point Jerry.
Dumb it down for me. A contest between one of your users and a Rag user is not relevant? You are of the opinion your product is way better than the other.
Lets take a look.
Actually Gary, I have an idea that could make you a couple of bucks at no risk.
Put up a post on the Jake board asking them to do the equivalent of our Red Board Room, saying that you want everyone to be able to compare their figures to ours, apples to apples.
If they leave it up 72 hours I'll send you a check for $200.
If they actually do it, $1,000.
I really hope I have to pay you.
I will not ever tell a business what to do. That includes Ragozin
They put up figures for every major stakes on Wednesday on Twitter. I think this is generous on their part.
You know I respect your product and used it before. I don\'t think it speaks well that you knock the competition. You should let the product speak for itself.
I think it is good and healthy there is disagreement in figure making. It is a parimutuel game. Reading the patterns remains the biggest challenge no matter whose numbers you prefer.
TELL them what to do? I said to ask them.
Of course you won't, and of course they won't. And of course we do.
That should tell you something. But of course it won't.
Thank you JB this is the America we live in and I am 100% in agreement with you
I wouldn't use there sheets for free Jerry, for one they look like my six year old makes them, such an inferior product and figures IMHO.
Let's do it, 2dollar w/p on Saturday at Belmont. Are we betting thru TGPS ? If I loose, will donate all winnings plus 250 to PDJF.
Had a good Belmont day, caught Arcangelo thanks to Jerry\'s free seminar.
Roman Wrote:
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> Had a good Belmont day, caught Arcangelo thanks to
> Jerry\'s free seminar.
Question, in the analysis no mention of Arcangelo.
I always assumed the seminar and the analysis would mirror each other.
No sour grapes, just asking.
Correction, the free figures supplied in the seminar.
With all due respect to the handicappers, I will listen to others and there reasoning on there picks, but I like loosing or winning on my own picks. Appreciate everyone\'s opinions and thoughts, but when betting , it is my own picks. Just think TG #\'s are a superior product to all other figures in the industry, just my opinion. At 8/1 , and with his figures, Arcangleo was a must use , that\'s all .
The proof is in the pudding, TG had the figures right before the race & most surely will after. Would bet that Arcangelo does not get the best figure on TG. He had a beautiful rail trip by Castellano, saved all the ground, and won by less than 2.
Roman Wrote:
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> The proof is in the pudding, TG had the figures
> right before the race & most surely will after.
> Would bet that Arcangelo does not get the best
> figure on TG. He had a beautiful rail trip by
> Castellano, saved all the ground, and won by less
> than 2.
Agree totally.
Every other major figure maker has Arcangelo moving forward in that race. BRIS had a 101, two points slower than Forte\'s FOY, and if you factor ground loss, the best figure on those numbers as well.
How do you have him running 8 lengths slower vs his MSW? The front two beat 6 other graded stakes runners by 9+ LENGTHS!! Don\'t know exactly what happened, but it\'s just an embarrassing, unacceptable mistake on their part and just shows a real lack of quality control over there - because it\'s not their first!
That figure from a major race like the Pan can NEVER happen if you\'re selling figures for $35/card. Honestly, they should refund anyone who paid for that crap.
35 dollars is a lot of money, I spend a little more than that on a good wagering weekend. To be honest , I red board a lot to see what figure a horse gets and buy TG on the biggest weekends of the year, and the money is well spent if you factor in the free data and red board. Anyways , thank you TG team , and like they say, welcome Ragz users to the pool.
Johnny, I played the horse to bounce for the reasons I discussed in the seminar, and didn't hit the race. And felt like an idiot when people who used our data thanked me afterword.
Haven't done the day yet but it's gonna be interesting. Raw time came up fast against the Brooklyn, and there was a ton of ground loss. Some of the other guys had excuses, but they should yank Saez' license for that ride.
Sekrah is right that there is no excuse for Jake getting the Peter Pan that wrong, for a lot of reasons. At a smaller track with a lot of unsound and erratic horses, that would be one thing, and maybe even if it was the only two turn race on a day. But this is 1- a stake 2- at a high end circuit and 3- except on Belmont day the dirt races are all one turn.
And they got his maiden win wrong too. No excuse.
" Johnny, I played the horse to bounce for the reasons I discussed in the seminar, and didn't hit the race. And felt like an idiot when people who used our data thanked me afterword"
I had a $100 ex box with him and Trice. Damn Forte the horse I was really against.
I always remember a regular who used to post here, no more though and I quote
"Don't play a horse to bounce until they do"
Granted as I gained more experience it's a case by case basis.
I guess it's better to be thanked than to be the rags.
GL
John
Thanks for the data Jerry!
TGJB Wrote:
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> they should yank Saez' license for that ride.
>
TAPIT TRICE away last without incident, came under coaxing and chased just off the inside through the first turn before tipping five to six paths off the inside down the backstretch, tucked four wide at the nine-sixteenths and commenced a bid on the front stacking outside a trio just off the leader at that station, angled five wide into upper stretch, dug in offering up a mild bid but was collared in the final strides for the place. honors and forced to settle for the show.
The above sounds bad was there more?
William Shakespear:
To be, or not to be, that is the question:
Whether \'tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune,
Or to take Arms against a Sea of troubles,
---
This is a good time to bring up the bounce theory. Esp on classy horses.
Personally I have always found, excluding extreme cases, that horses dont bounce as often as people project them to. This includes TG folks and regular horse players who dont use the sheets as well.
Sometimes they just dont run their race. Horse get\'s bodied out of the gate and pulls up? Bounce. Horse runs into a horrific pace scenario? Bounce. Horse gets stuck behind a wall and can\'t get through? Bounce. ... Basically all I am saying is that I think the phrase gets used way too loosely.
this is not a post against TG, more so an opinion on a different way to look at things.
Disclosure:
I loved Arcangelo and did not cash in the sequence. So eff me.
Also:
Rags has an awful presentation. They could have the best figs in the world, and I\'d never use. Thankfully they do not.
The pace was fast, the horse is a closer, he had no business pushing him to be close. Then he made a wide premature move (going a mile and a half) like the finish line was at the top of the stretch. It's amazing the horse stayed on as well as he did.
bluechip21 Wrote:
-----------------------------------------------------
>
> This is a good time to bring up the bounce theory.
> Esp on classy horses.
>
> Personally I have always found, excluding extreme
> cases, that horses dont bounce as often as people
> project them to. This includes TG folks and
> regular horse players who dont use the sheets as
> well.
>
> Sometimes they just dont run their race. Horse
> get\'s bodied out of the gate and pulls up? Bounce.
> Horse runs into a horrific pace scenario? Bounce.
> Horse gets stuck behind a wall and can\'t get
> through? Bounce. ... Basically all I am saying is
> that I think the phrase gets used way too loosely.
Couldn't agree more, so much more to it than just an actual "bounce".
Remember Flightline was suppose to bounce.
Was that race too fast? Keeneland has come up pretty slow IMO. And in the tapit trice race the horse closed into a horse who doesn\'t want more than a mile (zooms in on the sire\'s mile over vs mile under stats).
I learned early on that one can do very well just by taking the fastest horse in the race at a price. A 2-3 point \"bounce\" (with a rail trip) had a great chance to beat anyone else\'s best in here (with likely ground loss).
There is zero chance someone could come up with this horse if they relied on Rags. For one of the premier races on the calendar, that\'s just very sad.
Posted without comment nor prejudice regarding the Belmont:
TG Analysis - 2 4 7 8 bx
Rags Analysis - 6/ 2 3 8
I am overly prejudiced to TG data as the finest by far (not even close) and has served me well, but I have posted numerous times I\'ll never understand the analysis (not Belmont, all tracks). Then again, that\'s part of the puzzle, eh?
Using TG data I had handicapped the Belmont as follows:
3-6-2-8 (less than a point separated them) then a gap begins:7-1 then no chance 4-9-5
JB/Team TG - keep on rockin\' it on the great data.
shanahan Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Posted without comment nor prejudice regarding the
> Belmont:
>
> TG Analysis - 2 4 7 8 bx
>
> Rags Analysis - 6/ 2 3 8
>
>
> I am overly prejudiced to TG data as the finest by
> far (not even close) and has served me well, but I
> have posted numerous times I\'ll never understand
> the analysis (not Belmont, all tracks). Then
> again, that\'s part of the puzzle, eh?
>
> Using TG data I had handicapped the Belmont as
> follows:
>
> 3-6-2-8 (less than a point separated them) then a
> gap begins:7-1 then no chance 4-9-5
>
> JB/Team TG - keep on rockin\' it on the great data.
The analysis is one man\'s opinion.
You give 5 people the same data, often times you get 5 diff opinions.
I learned long ago, someone on this board said it can\'t remember who,...never dismiss the horse with the fastest number, especially at a price.
"I learned long ago, someone on this board said it can\'t remember who,...never dismiss the horse with the fastest number, especially at a price."
I remember those words as well.
It was the same gentleman that said
"Don't play a horse to bounce until they bounce."
He managed a hedge fund.
GL
John
I let it go the first time, could not again.
\"Don\'t play a horse to bounce until they do\" is idiotic.
It dictates a player turn off their brain to logical thinking. Every horse reaches the end of their development. By this thinking you will likely lose a bet when he invariably bounces unless you are lucky.
You may as well say \"I will run every red light until I crash\" - I know, this is taking it to an extreme level but it is the same logic.
\"'Don\'t play a horse to bounce until they do' is idiotic."
Ditch the politics—both the Sheets politics and the politics politics—and I could learn to like you.
Gary Irish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I let it go the first time, could not again.
>
> \"Don\'t play a horse to bounce until they do\" is
> idiotic.
>
> It dictates a player turn off their brain to
> logical thinking. Every horse reaches the end of
> their development. By this thinking you will
> likely lose a bet when he invariably bounces
> unless you are lucky.
>
> You may as well say \"I will run every red light
> until I crash\" - I know, this is taking it to an
> extreme level but it is the same logic.
I was thinking about letting this go, but won\'t
What is idiotic is you leaving out the price part of the equation
I dictates a player turning off their brain in regards to the tote board. By this thinking you will invariably miss out on a nice priced winner.
So lets toss the fastest horse in the race, a horse that has never gone backwards, a horse that will reward you 7x if you are correct.
Yes genius, every horse does reach the end of their development. Truly stunning stuff right here. We had no idea.
And no, your last idiotic statement wasn\'t the same logic.
It was just idiotic
Yeah -Dub - Change the premise and it changes the logic, duh. Odds were never part of the statement. How convenient for your challenge to add it.
Rich - I cannot change who I am. To borrow from Tom Waits \"If I exorcize my Devils my Angels may leave too.\" I in no way concede my values are devilish.
I enjoy the level of discussion here most of the time. I know I can be abrasive and stupid but never dull.
My red light analogy was at the exact level of judgement of the original statement. Knee jerk. We disagree.
" By this thinking you will likely lose a bet when he invariably bounces unless you are lucky."
If your that good and win every wager you make then good for you.
I'm a realist, I win some and I loose some.
When the fastest horse gets 7-1 and the other fastest horse is half that I know where I'm going.
As I mentioned it's a case by case basis.
Hello John
I hope I didn\'t give you the idea I am any kind of genius. My record is mostly on the other board. I have been honest about my struggles and have tried to learn by admitting my mistakes. Did you miss the part where I admitted my poverty?
I never said the Belmont winner was a bad play. I have friend who tried to convince me he was the one, but I did not like what I saw on Ragozin. He was very different on TG. As P Dub pointed out, it was an odds play.
Good for you. You utilized good JUDGEMENT based on logic. That is what a sharp player does. How come TG guys spell it \"loose\"? lol
Gary Irish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I let it go the first time, could not again.
>
> \"Don\'t play a horse to bounce until they do\" is
> idiotic.
>
> It dictates a player turn off their brain to
> logical thinking. Every horse reaches the end of
> their development. By this thinking you will
> likely lose a bet when he invariably bounces
> unless you are lucky.
>
> You may as well say \"I will run every red light
> until I crash\" - I know, this is taking it to an
> extreme level but it is the same logic.
With Thorograph figs, the winner could have gone backwards 2 points off its best and still win with a rail trip.
Btw is the infamous chuckles still around
He probably did.
I agree, my rough estimate is Forte is close to a pair, and Tapit Trice earning the best fig, especially with the Saez ride.
Gary Irish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Yeah -Dub - Change the premise and it changes the
> logic, duh. Odds were never part of the statement.
> How convenient for your challenge to add it.
Gary its one of the biggest reasons we make decisions
7/1 I\'m playing no bounce
8/5 I\'m playing that he does
There are no absolutes in this game. The tote board plays a big part in the decision making.
I actually like the fact you had a little P-Dub attitude with the initial statement.
I agree with you 100% about the odds. It would be foolhardy to argue otherwise.
It also would prove nothing to pursue my challenge to Sekrah at the top of this string. He pushed a button and I went off, rightly so imo.
But a contest would prove nothing. As you adroitly pointed out, the same data can be read several ways depending on the user. It does not prove or disprove the accuracy of the figures.
I enjoy pre-race prognostication but most people don\'t. Maybe I will do a race from Saturdays Belmont card over there. I cannot tell if there will be an appealing race until I see it.