A favorite song by Leonard Cohen:
EVERYBODY KNOWS
Everybody knows that the dice are loaded
Everybody rolls with their fingers crossed
Everybody knows the war is over
Everybody knows the good guys lost
Everybody knows the fight was fixed
The poor stay poor, the rich get rich, that's how it goes
Everybody knows
Everybody knows that the boat is leaking
Everybody knows the captain lied
Everybody got this broken feeling
Like their father or their dog just died
Everybody talking to their pockets
Everybody wants a box of chocolates
And a log-stem rose
Everybody knows
Everybody who saw the overhead shot of the Kentucky Derby winner zooming past the field, like the rest of the horses were tied to a post, was in shock. But then we ask: Why? Why did this colt improve 12 to 18 lengths, like he was shot out of a cannon, to do what he did?
I woke up this morning to read rationalizations in THE ATHLETIC: Aha! The winners' sire, KEEN ICE beat the great AMERICAN PHAROAH! His mother was a champion in Canada! And then I read the worst thing people say: " Well... that's racing!" Unfortunately, they say the same thing when breakdowns on the track occur: "Hey it's just one o dem things." Wrong.
There's a valid reason why this happened: HE WAS INJECTED BEFORE THE RACE WITH SOMETHING STRONG THAT PROVOKED HIM. No one will suggest it because they can't prove it (with a video on YouTube). We can\'t quite touch or feel the answer. But everybody knows.
Great song. But a one off jump up is not the pattern of a guy doing something. Especially a jump up in the most scrutinized race in the year. Now, if you wanted to argue that's why so many DON'T run their race...
Check out Famous Blue Raincoat, the Jennifer Warnes album where she covers Cohen's songs, including Everybody Knows.
Cohen was supposedly at the Warren Beatty level with women.
If you're right, they will find it in the post race testing- Baffert got nailed for picogram quantities remember. That's one trillionth of a gram.
No- horse racing is a non-deterministic event. We spend a lot of time on the data- trying to predict the future by studying the past. But the game involves randomness and chaos too- that's why you get results like yesterday
Long ago I told myself to always include bets with the longest shot on the board. Sadly, yesterday I didn't follow that principle...
TGJB Wrote:
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> Now, if you wanted to argue that's why so many
> DON'T run their race...
>
Is this idea that all the top horses had been running under aggressive treatments where withdrawal was at the last possible moment and that in this race, they withdrew earlier with an extra margin so nobody would be this year\'s Baffert? if that is the case, then the Top horses all probably went back a little and this horse\'s jump up from pairing up his 2yo top coupled with a good trip was enough to get there.
It is sort of like a lasix off situation -- wish i had thought about this before the race.
A one off jump up in the most scrutinized race of the year, which is laughable in and of itself considering the winners of 3 out of the last 4 were trained by a guy who's been ruled off of Churchill Downs for drug positives in the derby and the other one has either been, will be or should be banned from the sport for life for drugging his horses and bragging about it. So what if they caught them. Does wonders for my confidence and nothing for my bankroll. How many times do we need to see this plot before we guess the ending? The sport is either dirty and unpredictable or clean and unpredictable. Take your pick. Just not with my money.
Great. So now we're incorporating chaos theory into our handicapping. Good luck with that one.
When I saw the winner go savage on the out pony after the race we all joked he is on a cycle of testosterone.
Lots of sour grapes this morning.
Last 1/2 mile in a swift 52 seconds if I read the charts correctly.
Only 364 days!
I think you missed the one off part.
You're right. I did.
How about the first quarter in 21 and 3, half in 45 and change, wicked pace!
Plus the 2 pace setting jockeys were first time derby starters, after watching the last few derbies thought they could go out & walk the dog on the lead. Can\'t wait to see the figs, figure a lot of off and x\'s , just like every other derby, with rich strike the only one running a new top?
JohnTChance,
I am normally one of the first people to call out a situation where I think that something that wasn\'t above board happens in a race. And everyone is entitled to their opinion. But I take a very different view than \"he was injected before the race with something strong\" that provoked him as you wrote.
Eric Reed is 0 for 47 last 5 years in nongraded stakes. He was 0 for 4 in graded stakes before yesterday in that time period. Some would say this supports your position. And while I understand that I think it supports my view also.
He is a trainer on paper with absolutely no chance it seems against the supertrainers with those kind of stats. So how could a guy like that win a race against the very best? While you think he did something nefarious, I certainly think it is quite the opposite.
As JB stated, this race, esp after last year\'s positive test on the winner, was probably very highly scrutinized and the horses were probably watched CLOSELY for the days leading up to it. My view is that you saw a CLEAN race. One where there was no Re-breaking by super trainer horses. And where were the other closers in the race who should have also been picking up the pieces? Maybe their super trainers just did not have them ready which is shocking b/c nearly all of them came into the race training super and they couldn\'t have looked any better, right? Maybe when a few super trainers were not able to ply their trade as they normally do, their horses did not fire.
A mile and a quarter dirt race run in clean conditions might have exposed who can really train a horse a bit and might have exposed who has other edges they didn\'t or more likely couldn\'t use yesterday in that race in particular. Good horses, good trainers, and good jockeys can come from anywhere. Or at least they used to. But in the past several years, no one can compete with the supertrainers by and large in graded stakes. But maybe if the races were absolutely CLEAN, you can see others that can win races.
Interesting that Jason Cook got a win yesterday also on the card in a restricted Stakes. He has not even started a horse in a stakes race the last 5 years except for Three Techniques in his last 3 starts. A 10 percent trainer the last 5 years overall. I guess your view is that Everyone Knows what happened in that race also. But maybe these races in Kentucky are starting to have a more level playing field?
On Friday, Lukas won the Kentucky Oaks with Secret Oath. Excluding her two graded stakes wins this year, he has not won a graded stakes since April of 2018. (Four years basically) The past 5 years he is 3 for 72 if you don\'t count Secret Oath\'s graded stakes attempts this year.
The CDI evil empire is not a team to cheer for often; but I believe they are trying to CLEAN up the game as evidenced by low percentage stakes guys getting some wins the last 2 days. I have other reasons I won\'t list here dating further back that indicate this as well.
Bottom line: I don\'t think Reed acted improperly to make it to the winners circle. There was a fast pace, his horse was far back, the other super trainers horses with closers \"didn\'t fire,\" he got a perfect ride for Leon, and poly to dirt move worked also as someone mentioned has been a hot angle lately for improving horses and it cost many of us a lot of money at the gambling windows getting by the 3 and the 10. I tip my cap to the winners and say Congrats until a postive test comes forward or some other evidence that the guy took an edge.
Great post Fairmount and I\'m in agreement. I don\'t think the 9 for Strike Rich\'s last race was fair either. He closed well into a slow paced poly race and IMO, that was a move forward in my book which made him live for another move forward. I\'m not red-boarding, he was still too slow for me to use him any which way, but where most of the field ran very inefficient fractions, the hyper fast pace definitely gave him a chance. Slow the first two quarter miles down by 1/5th second each and Rich Strike misses the board and we\'re having a different discussion. Rich Strike went out in :49, came home in :50. He didn\'t hit any turbo button. He was the classic sustained closer into a wipeout pace.
I used to work in racing for 20 years, and left it long ago completely. Eric Reed trained in the Midwest, and I was working as a grunt in the PR department of River Downs when one of his fillies won a small 2YO stake. I had to interview him for the weekly TV show. He\'s not an easy interview. He can be condescending. Racing offices in the Midwest have had to deal with a lot of nagging demands he\'s always got. But one thing he wasn\'t, and isn\'t, is one of these crooks whose horses suddenly turn into world beaters on the backstretches of Beulah Park. There are many other worse trainers in the 90s who had these kinds of reversals. He\'s not one of them. His results - over time - have been fairly steady.
The truth of what happened is probably simpler to understand: this year\'s Derby horses are just below par. There\'s a traditional standard for Derby caliber, and consciously or not we all know it. Not all Derby winners or Derby fields are at or above such a standard. For every Triple Crown winner - or horse that wins 2/3 of the Triple Crown - there are Dust Commanders, Cannonades, Mine That Birds, Kauai Kings, Proud Clarions, and now Rich Strikes. This batch of 2022 Derby prep winners is just below what the traditional Derby standard is. It\'s no more complicated than that, IMHO. Take Zandon. The Bluegrass was by far the weakest prep - only 1 GSW in the field. And 3 out, Zandon had every horse in front of him - 10 of them. In less than 3 furlongs he ran past all of them. Years in the business tells me when a horse can run down 10 rivals in less then 3/8 to win a graded stakes going away, one of two things is true: either this is a rare talent of horse; or the 10 he runs over are of no account. Time will prove the latter will be true long before the former. Zandon and Epicenter came through and had no excuses, especially the former. With a quarter to run, the race was theirs to decide. In hindsight, Epicenter being closer to the ridiculous pace probably did more to wobble his legs late because he hadn\'t run in 6 weeks - which is too long to be idle for a race like this. Zandon is the one who had no excuse. Oddly, Mo Donegal raced side-by-side with the winner all down the backside, yet he wheeled out far to the outside, when you wonder what would have happened had he kept his position. But overall, the bottom line is this: the 2022 Derby was below what we normally think of as Derby standard. The reverse is true of the Oaks, which was well above a traditional Oaks standard. If you\'re Lukas, I\'m thinking you\'re probably lining up a van to Baltimore.
jerry Wrote:
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> Great. So now we're incorporating chaos theory
> into our handicapping. Good luck with that one.
Thats why they invented the all button.
Chaos happens in all aspects of gambling
Its never going to be a perfect math equation.
A different perspective I did not think about.
Well put.
Mo Donegal took the overland route , 8 wide, Rich Strike stayed inside, had not a straw in his path on the rail. Winning move for Leon, but ground loss doesn't matter! Right Jerry?
I think people are reading too much into this.
Trainer has no history of jump ups, and highly unlikely to try something new at one of the most scrutinized events of the year.
I would think "super trainers" unlikely to be using in preps given the scrutiny around the sport recently. Not an expert, so it's possible, but would think people are pretty fearful and on best behavior.
Horse ran a 9 last year on dirt and didn't move forward on poly. Maybe he didn't like the poly and his preps would have been better on the dirt. Pattern not horrible, reasonable to expect a forward move. Fast pace, great ride, and he got faster from 2 to 3.
Not suggesting I bet him, because I didn't, but there doesn't need to be some conspiratorial explanation for him to win.
I'll be interested to see the numbers coming out of the race.
No rebreaking by super trainer horses.
True only in that Eric Reed is not a super trainer. Otherwise, watch the replay again. Leaving the far turn the horse gets pinched in tight and checks before squeezing through and rebreaking. I actually allow for the possibility that this horse is just mean and getting sandwiched between horses just pissed him off and he ran rank crazy from then on.
Interesting point you make regarding super trainers not being able to ply their trade, a.k.a. doping, and that in turn leveled the playing field for clean trainers. If that is true, then it would be sheer madness to risk any wager on the derby simply because none of the data going into the race would be reliable because most of the horses would be "off dope" and who knows how they'll perform.
The only surprising thing about the Three Techniques race was his price. Of the 12 horses entered in the race, 6 had run within 1/2 point of a 1. He was one of them. If the result of this race was due to more stringent oversight and therefore a more level playing field, why didn't that show itself in any of the other races where chalk ruled?
The Lukas reference is irrelevant. Secret Oath was the second fastest horse coming into the race. He figured, regardless of his trainers graded stakes drought.
Yes, there was a fast pace that gassed any of them that ran close to it but there were plenty of better horses on paper that didn't. Poly/dirt? Maybe but it's not as though this was his first try on dirt.
The bottom line is on paper he was by far the slowest horse coming into the race and, as noted by our host, didn't deserve the slightest consideration because he was so hopelessly overmatched (has anybody figured out how he was 21st on the AE list with just over $74,000 in winnings?), and yet he won. Huh. Let's ask the experts.
Great. Now we're calling into question the accuracy of the figures. JB, can you handle this one?
Was it the math or the money why your pal only chose the second spot?
I respect your comments regarding Eric Reed. Regarding the strength of the field, not so much. This was a very strong field and, for the most part evenly matched, with several great patterns coming into the race. So many that the analysis had to add another category, B+.
You talking to me? If so, where in anything I've written did I suggest that?
I don't envy the figure maker.
Flighted Iron Wrote:
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> Was it the math or the money why your pal only
> chose the second spot?
Money meaning......
I agree with you in that I don\'t think Reed did anything inappropriate with Rich Strike.
I ask rhetorically; does any substance exist that could improve a horse from a single win of a M30K race with those running lines into a Kentucky Derby winner?
If Reed did have some magic to inject, why would he not use it to get the horse some derby points and not chance having to be 20-something on the list hoping to get into the race.
I tip my hat to the Rich Strike and the connections.
His dam ran a 9 as a 2 year old, and ran a 0 at 3, so a 9 point jump was in the genes. Horse won fare and square, great ride by Leon, terrible ride by 15 other jockeys.
No , TGJB, sorry. It was a snark comment, of course ground loss matters, and it did greatly in the derby.
jerry Wrote:
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> Great. Now we're calling into question the
> accuracy of the figures. JB, can you handle this
> one?
Nothing new for me, I\'ve always called in the accuracy of the figures on horses who ran extreme slow or extreme fast fractions and make my own hand adjustments. You can\'t make up lost time and there\'s some races where they go so fast early, it would be several points faster if Jerry had recorded the figure to an earlier pole.
One of the most extreme ones I can remember that I brought to his attention, was when Sharp Azteca looked like a play on Belmont Day after he \"paired\" in the Pat Day Mile, but it was clear if the race was measured to 6f, he had run 3 1/2 pts faster and would be a bounce candidate on Belmont day.
Oh look, I found it!
https://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,102811,102829#msg-102829
Roman Wrote:
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> His dam ran a 9 as a 2 year old, and ran a 0 at 3,
> so a 9 point jump was in the genes. Horse won fare
> and square, great ride by Leon, terrible ride by
> 15 other jockeys.
I put the last one at 7 3/4, and he probably moved up to a 2 or 3 here, with most of the rest of the horses being compromised by the pace, ran far from optimal energy dispersion.
The Derby had a faster opening half mile than the Pat Day Mile.
People are looking for conspiracies where none exist. A plodder that was due (and ripe) for a developmental move up caught the perfect pace and trip. End of story. Again, slow the race down by 2/5ths at the half mile mark and he finishes 6th-8th, and no one cares that he moved up. Everything broke right for him.
He out kicked 3 horses that were 5-10 lengths better than him. Not one, but 3.
Checks midstretch behind a tiring Messier, then rebreaks.
If they do find something what would be the better option for CD....go public with it and blow up the Kentucky Derby result (again!!!) or sweep it under the hay?
Good Luck,
Joe B.
jbelfior Wrote:
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> He out kicked 3 horses that were 5-10 lengths
> better than him. Not one, but 3.
>
> Checks midstretch behind a tiring Messier, then
> rebreaks.
>
> If they do find something what would be the better
> option for CD....go public with it and blow up the
> Kentucky Derby result (again!!!) or sweep it under
> the hay?
>
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B.
He didn\'t outkick anyone. He plodded past stopping horses. His \"rebreaks\" were him picking up his feet a little bit after being stopped a couple times due to traffic.
Rich Strike went out in :49 and came home in :50. The horses he passed went out in :45-:47 and were stone dead in the stretch coming home in :53-:56. Epicenter came home in around 52 2/5th. Rich Strike ran nearly the exact same pace all the way around the track.
IMO, Joel moved way too soon and if he would have waited an 1/8th before making his move, Epicenter wins by a couple lengths.
Best Derby ride ever? Right on the break he cuts behind straight to the rail. Just like he went to a TG seminar on ground loss.
On the turn he had to muscle in between, and down the stretch he had to maneuver again briefly off the rail and then he got right back to it to pass the last two. Absolutely phenomenal. Race collapsed and he put himself in position to win. Lots of sour grapes out there? Hats off from me!
HP
The only excuse for Epicenter\'s and Zandon\'s collapse was breeding -- they just cannot go that far. Neither one of them were near the fast early fractions -- especially Zandon. Pretty sweet trips for both but just could not finish.
Unlike the OAKS fillies; overall a pretty weak bunch this year.
upon reflection, I think this is the correct take. Blazing pace and horses out side of Zandon and Epicenter (more on him later), horses that finished top 5 were all way far back at the first call. Simply put, the Race broke down and the horse with the fastest closing pace fig (time form) got a great ride weaving between horses to steal the race. If the best horses on paper, or in the race, won 100% of the time, would we even care to play this game?
Imagine this, Irad had the 1 post and navigated his horse 10 wide, while the horse in the 21 post, got a perfect trip up the rail. Irad Ortiz had his lunch stolen by Sonny Leon. ... It takes me back to a book I read years ago called Scorecasting. The basic premise of the book is that in sports, you often have athletes who play not to lose, versus playing to win. That is what Irad did (take a horse 10 wide and hope for a check) and on the flip side, Sonny played to win (fearlessly navigate horses driving home on the rail).
On to Epicenter. Far and away the best horse in the race. If only Joel had gotten him to switch leads, and I think he holds off the charging closer to win the race.
Leon got to the rail and there was room because they were so strung out. He had a spot and kept going. Irad and Mo almost ran into the rail at the start? Irad was on the rail too, but when they got to the second turn if you watch the replay there was a solid wall on the inside and Irad had a seam to get out behind for some room, but once he got in there he had to keep drifting out until he had a spot to straighten out. Leon was on the inside of that wall and there\'s a great move where he bulls between two horses to get back to the inside. But if you were behind the wall to begin with....
I think it was more the luck of how things broke than any deliberate \"navigating.\" I don\'t think Irad could\'ve done anything better or differently, he was inside all the way.
Then your B+ field just got run over by a D- horse. That was the point. The races - the Derby and all its preps - are staged every year. Not all their winners are equal. Some are better than others. And the 2022 crop of 3 years olds is - at best - ordinary. And that\'s probably coming down on the more charitable side.
I don\'t see all that but hey, it\'s horse racing. There was no dirt form to evaluate. He liked Churchill and jumped up. Happens with 3yos and happens with surface switches. Horse could be great and just totally concealed by what they asked him to do before the Derby.
Other than that the early pace killed most of them. Zandon did what he was supposed to, and as per what JB said in his comments Epicenter got a good draw for what he was going to do. The others knocked each other out. When they separate into smaller fields for stakes races we\'ll see how good they are.
I\'m not reading much about Baffert. Two horses figured. Took money, didn\'t run. Neither did the one earlier in the card. Before the day I thought it was win/win for Baffert. If they win he\'s a genius and they can\'t blame him for cheating and if he loses, Yakteen is not a great trainer. Now I\'m not so sure. And I\'m much happier with this winner\'s story than reading about another miracle where Baffert, again, plucks the magic three year old from the 10s of thousands of eligible horses every year. Obviously without his \"personal touch\" they\'re missing something.
He \"plodded\"? Didn\'t look like he was plodding when I watched the overhead.
I wasn\'t referring to the backing up speed. Was referring to Zandon, Mo Donegal, and Simplification (who weren\'t stopping) not to mention the two Turfway horses that dusted him in the Jeff Ruby.
Good Luck,
Joe B
Thank you for this. Your rationale makes perfectly good sense but I just don't have the time or interest to dissect every race as you have done here. I suspect it is a flaw with simply reducing a performance to a number.
I don\'t think Jack Christopher looked all that dominating either as one of the best in the crop. Workmanlike win vs terrible field. I don\'t know. I just can\'t believe the winner accelerated like down the lane. How is that possible from his past running line?
I accept the results with lesson learned. Stick to 4 year olds and up.
Million dollar question.
Your pal doesn\'t use thorograph?
:50 half mile isn\'t plodding to you? Relative to the stopping horses, yes it looks like he\'s flying on the overhead. But except for having to slow down twice for traffic and come back up to speed, he was going same pace all race.
Flighted Iron Wrote:
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> Your pal doesn\'t use thorograph?
That\'s what math or money meant??
No he doesn\'t use TG, but he used my opinion on many races and made quite a bit. He sends it in
HP Wrote:
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> I think it was more the luck of how things broke
> than any deliberate \"navigating.\" I don\'t think
> Irad could\'ve done anything better or differently,
> he was inside all the way.
Decisions still have to made me made quickly amid all that chaos. Leon deserves a ton of credit.
I dont understand the question.
How is it not possible from his past running lines ?
To my eye, that was a death defying move at the 1/8 pole, he barely tipped out enough to fly past the stopper on the rail. When they talk about running through a brick wall, thats what they mean
I think I started using the 6f times off 7f races when they cut back , over 40 years ago .
Not much new under the sun
Obviously he didn\'t consult with you prior to the derby.
Flighted Iron Wrote:
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> Obviously he didn\'t consult with you prior to the
> derby.
He did, he just did what he did. He made plenty up to that point
watch the overview on youtube, leon made 2 great moves, around the clubhouse turn and the last one is something as he splits horses, great ride
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q8DcIxZrxH0