This guy is my pick on Saturday. Fastest horse in the race will somehow be 4th-6th choice in the betting. I made this mistake before, but not again on Saturday. I know, no horse has won with only 2 races since.......... blah, blah, blah. These are different times. Those that have run the most, and have the figs to take this, have to pass more than half the field. This guy won't see 15 of the horses after the first few jumps based on his positional speed. From the 12 hole he should get a great trip. Oh, and for his lack of seasoning...... he has 26 officially recorded workouts, so he's not some late arrival to the track and I'm sure Baffert didn't put him out there with a bunch of slugs.
Sign me up for every bit of the 10-1 I expect to get.
Good Luck.
Many believe this horse will scratch.
First time I have heard that
From SI cover story this week:
https://www.si.com/horse-racing/2022/05/04/kentucky-derby-bob-baffert-medina-spirit-controversy-horses-daily-cover
The powerful chestnut colt might be the most unseasoned Derby runner ever, running just two career races and somewhat ominously landing on the Santa Anita "vet's list" after winning his debut in early March. That means veterinarians had a physical concern about Taiba, who is owned by the owner of Medina Spirit, Amr Zedan. Taiba was listed as "unsound," indicating a likely leg issue. According to Santa Anita blogger Jeff Siegel, who was there, jockey John Velazquez eased the horse up quickly after the race and walked him slowly back to the winner's circle. At the time, Baffert told Siegel, "Johnny thought he felt something funny behind, so he pulled him up. By the time he got back to the winner's circle, the colt was fine. I don't know if he was put on the vet's list, but it was nothing."
Once on the vet's list in California, Taiba had to wait seven days before recording any timed workout and 15 days before an official workout (which is different from any timed work, per the California Horse Racing Board's Mike Marten). Taiba also had to pass pre- and post-work vet examinations, meet a minimum time standard and submit to post-work sample testing.
Taiba returned to the work tab March 18 and recorded three official workouts before surprisingly entering the Santa Anita Derby off one career start, then more surprisingly winning it by passing Messier in the stretch and pulling away. That punched his ticket to Louisville, but Yakteen has worked him only once since that race, 19 days later and nine days before the Derby.
Baffert customarily works his horses hard and has them dead fit for big races. Yakteen has taken a different approach, putting a lightly raced and lightly conditioned colt into a 20-horse alley fight. It's a bold deviation. "I wanted to make sure I was bringing a horse to Kentucky with a full tank," he says. "It would do me no good to take a horse that I misread to Churchill and have him underperform because I over-trained him."
He did add an easy 3/8 work this week but no signs of unsoudness or dealing with
any known issues for what it\'s worth.
There are about 10-12 horses in this race with "positional speed" as you put it. It's not a War Emblem race where one horse is going to take over? Messier looks to have a little more early lick than most but it's not overwhelming. What I usually see is that a lot of jockeys get tentative in the big race, but if most run true to form about half the field wants to run the first half in about 0:47. I'm looking for a horse that's not going to do that.
Good luck!