The Kentucky Derby field, in post position order, with riders and Battaglia\'s morning-line odds:
1. Mo Donegal, I. Ortiz, 10-1
2. Happy Jack, R. Bejarano, 30-1
3. Epicenter, J. Rosario, 7-2
4. Summer Is Tomorrow, M. Barzalona, 30-1
5. Smile Happy, C. Lanerie, 20-1
6. Messier, J. Velazquez, 8-1
7. Crown Pride, C. Lemaire, 20-1
8. Charge It, L. Saez, 20-1
9. Tiz the Bomb, B. Hernandez, 30-1
10. Zandon, F. Prat, 3-1
11. Pioneer of Medina, J. Bravo, 30-1
12. Taiba, M. Smith, 12-1
13. Simplification, J. Ortiz, 20-1
14. Barber Road, R. Gutierrez, 30-1
15. White Abarrio, T. Gaffalione, 10-1
16. Cyberknife, F. Geroux, 20-1
17. Classic Causeway, J. Leparoux, 30-1
18. Tawny Port, R. Santana, 30-1
19. Zozos, M. Franco, 20-1
20. Ethereal Road, L. Contreras, 30-1
AE - Rich Strike, S. Leon, 30-1
AE - Rattle N Roll, J. Graham, 30-1
The draw hurts Mo, helps Messier, Crown Pride, Taiba, Simplification, and Cyberknife. One of my bombs, Tiz the Bomb, KILLED by the draw, as he hates dirt kickback. He needed an outside draw.
Messier\'s race to lose, IMHO.....12-1 Taiba/Smith??? no way! 6-1 tops!
Crown Pride will be underlayed, with all the hype on how the Japanese horses crushed in Arabia.
Simplification, 20-1....Hmmmm...
I imagine several distinct groups barring too much traffic or trouble in the first turn.
Group One - Pacesetters 3 Epicenter, 5 Smile Happy, 6 Messier, 7 Crown Pride, with 16. Cyberknife and 17 Classic Causeway closing down from the outside.
Group Two - 2nd Turn Movers, 8 Charge IT, 9 Tiz The Bomb, 10. Zandon, 13 Simplification, 14 Barber Road, 15 Wite Abarrio
I\'m not sure what to expect from 12. Taiba but I don\'t expect him to go to the lead. Consequently as good as Mike Smith is, he risks getting bumped around and ground loss on both turns, I suppose we could see a Monarchos-like move with him circling the field. A Mine That Bird trip to likely to get blocked IMO.
How to beat the front runners - tire them out by forcing them to run too fast to soon. I think that potential is there.
How to beat the endurance horses let the early runners get away with a comfortable pace. The defection of Early Voting suggests Chad Brown\'s team thinks there are enough kamikaze types to set the race up for the best closers.
In the end the survivor or survivors of the pace war IMHO Epicenter and Cyberknife mixed with Zandon, Charge It. Or flipped.
As someone who follows Asian Racing, I can tell you That Christian LeMaire is as good a jockey as any. Used to big fields and long distances. Admittedly, I am biased but my future money is already on the Japanese entry.
Yes, there are outliers capable of running the race of their life and winning or getting a piece. At least one highly regarded contender is sure to flop and that is the fun
First Impressions.
Call me crazy but #20 is going on my tickets
I have Taiba closer to the pace, definitely in the first tier. In the SA derby, Smith had him close to the lead and then fell back and tracked. Horse seems to rate very nice. Unless the race completely falls apart, it seems with the cheap speed out of the race the last 10 or so years, that being in the first flight is where to be. Otherwise, I'm with you on the rest of the list.
\"I imagine several distinct groups barring too much traffic or trouble in the first turn.\"
Good luck barring those two! In fact, I\'ll take Traffic and Trouble in an exacta box on the first turn heavier with Traffic on top!
i had it to a group of 3, zandon, smile happy , messier. I like the CD race for SH, the 2 yr old top and the odds.
(https://i.imgur.com/rxuJH0G.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/EJKctK1.jpg)
Thanks, Steve.
That is helpful.
very interesting pace projector.
if the Japanese colt is sitting there, they should give him the trophy before they hit the wire the first time.
Tiz the Bomb is another runner who should love a mile and a quarter. but he ain\'t winning from there.
and Zandon at the rear?
Messier fits well here, for a few reasons. but he\'s getting a lot of attention. not sure what the price is going to be.